IISEPS — Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Politycal Studies

ELITE NO MORE TRUSTS THE AUTHORITIES, YET IT DOESN'T BELIEVE IN CHANGES

One of the major reasons of why the president’s “magnificent victory” in the referendum and parliamentary election announced by the Central Election Commission didn’t arouse protest of the Belarusian voters was that they didn’t have the impression of being cheated. As a result, the country received a legislative body different from the one many Belarusians voted for.

In fact, at the very start the previous House of Representatives was also free from not only oppositionists but from any sort of people with independent standpoints. The small group Republic appeared eighteen months later and greatly bothered the authorities with its activeness and fidelity to principles. Right now, opinion leaders and experts don’t believe in possible formation of a group or fraction like Republic within the Parliament. Thus, 87% of respondents in general and 97% of public sector employees say that appearance of such a group is impossible and only 10% spoke out an opposite viewpoint.

Unlike many common voters, public opinion leaders and experts from both public and private sectors don’t have illusions about the parliamentary election (See Table 1).

Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question "Was this parliamentary election free and fair?", %

Variant of answer	Nation opinion poll*	Opinion poll among leaders and experts
Variant of answer	Nation opinion poll*	All respondents	Public sector employees	Private sector employees
No	35.2	90	80	100
Yes	48.5	8	17	–
DA/NA	16.3	2	3	–

* Here and below are given the results of the nation opinion poll conducted by the IISEPS in November of 2004 (those interviewed are 1521persons, margin of error does not exceed 0.03%)

It is not sufficient to come to the polling booth on the Election Day and mark a candidate in the bulletin to understand the procedure of rigging the election. As it has been many times noted, all was decent on the Election Day. There’s yet another side of the election hidden from most voters (listing of voters, organization of pre-term election, counting of votes, etc.) and well familiar to the political elite. This is why we think their estimates are more accurate in this regard.

Results of the referendum and parliamentary election publicized by the Gallup Organization/Baltic Surveys – strikingly different from the official results – haven’t stirred up the society. Most Belarusians simply weren’t introduced to them. Since the level of awareness is much higher among leaders and experts, their attitude to the results of the Central Election Commission and Gallup’s Institute differs from that of the population in general (See Tables 2 and 3).

Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question "The Central Election Commission announced that almost 80% of the voters on the voting lists supported A. Lukashenko at the recent referendum. According to the opinion polls conducted by Gallup Institute / Baltic Surveys, А. Lukashenko received the support of only 48.8% of voters? Have you heard anything about this?", %

Variant of answer	Nation opinion poll	Opinion poll among leaders and experts
Variant of answer	Nation opinion poll	All respondents	Public sector employees	Private sector employees
Yes	32.7	73	53	93
No	57.7	27	47	7

Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question "In your opinion, what data is closer to truth?", %

Variant of answer	Nation opinion poll	Opinion poll among leaders and experts
Variant of answer	Nation opinion poll	All respondents	Public sector employees	Private sector employees
Data of Gallup Institute	28.6	80	63	97
Data of the Central Election Commission	44.3	7	14	–

The question is: Why weren’t the results of Gallup’s Institute aired in public? If a common voter is responsible for making the right choice, the elite is then responsible for informing the majority about the real political situation that differs from the one outlined by the official propaganda. How can the elite complain about indifference and pessimism of the majority when it doesn’t fulfill this important task?

However, whatever is the stand of the elite and whatever tough is the political regime, there are always citizens ready to speak out openly their standpoints. Such citizens organized the actions of protest after the election and referendum. Those actions arouse wide response abroad while attitude of Belarusians to those events appeared controversial (See Table 4).

Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question "What is your attitude to the protest actions of the opposition (October 18-20) that stood out against rigged referendum and parliamentary election?", %

Variant of answer	Nation opinion poll	Opinion poll among leaders and experts
Variant of answer	Nation opinion poll	All respondents	Public sector employees	Private sector employees
Positive	28.3	57	23	90
Indifferent	30.3	33	57	10
Negative	39.2	5	10	–

Positive attitude of private sector employees certainly has its moral background. Those actions showed to the world that not all people in Belarus support the current policy: “We think it important to speak out our discontent even if this doesn’t bring to real changes.”

Apparently, indifference of the most public sector employees can also be explained: “If those protesting are so few, then the authorities are still powerful and we need to wait.”

At the same time, over 80% of respondents from the public sector said that the recent ‘orange revolution’ in Ukraine wasn’t the result of authorities’ weakness or application of political technologies. That was a process beyond the control of the authorities provoked by dissatisfaction with their policy (See Table 5).

Table 5. Distribution of answers to the question "What is your opinion of the recent wild events in Ukraine?", %

Variant of answer	All respondents	Public sector employees	Private sector employees
This is a process beyond someone’s control caused by people’s dissatisfaction with the policy carried by the authorities	82	84	80
This is a controlled process caused by use of political technologies from the part of the West and weakness of the authorities	10	13	7
Other	7	3	10

Perhaps, such an estimate is connected, first of all, with the scale of the Ukrainian protest – hundreds of thousands of people pressed for their demand for almost one month and they finally received what they wanted. If the Belarusian elite feels that mass protests can take place in this country, its standpoint can be predicted right away.