IISEPS — Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Politycal Studies

PRESIDENT'S PROSPECTS IN BELARUS: OPINION OF THE ELITE

According to the polling results, absolute majority of leaders and experts (90%) are convinced that the nearest presidential election in Belarus will take place in 2006, as it is stated in the legislation. Within the private sector, 84% of respondents stick to the same viewpoint that is slightly less than within public sector (97%) and 13% say that the election will be conducted one year earlier. Within the public sector, only 3% of respondents think in the same.

Asked about who can become A. Lukashenko’s feasible contender at the coming presidential election, most leaders and experts (60%) said this will be a candidate for consolidated democratic forces (this is the viewpoint of 46% of respondents in the public sector and 73% of respondents – in the private sector). The following candidates were mentioned as probable presidential contenders: A. Lebedko and A. Yaroshuk (5% each); V. Frolov, A. Voitovich and S. Kalyakin (3% each); S. Bogdankevich, A. Klimiov, V. Leonov and V. Parfenovich (2% each). By the way, 16% of respondents consider that a single candidate should be nominated by a specially gathered Congress of Democratic Forces (within the private sector, this is the opinion of 31% of respondents). Respondents also offered other ways to elect a single candidate (from voting by “Belarusian citizens” to nomination by “NGO’s” or “independent sociological agencies”) but those alternatives were given 2-7% of votes.

Another 23% of respondents assume that this is a candidate for nomenclature that may become A. Lukashenko’s feasible contender (this is the opinion of 26% of respondents within the public sector and of 16% – within the private sector). The following names were mentioned in this regard: A. Kozulin, M. Myasnikovich and S. Sidorsky (2% of votes each). Public sector employees chose the first one and private sector – two other candidates.

Some 5% of respondents say that A. Luka-shenko’s “feasible contender” will be his successor nominated personally. In our opinion, a candidate whom A. Lukashenko trusts so deeply to nominate a candidate to his own post is hardly a contender for him.

Despite leaders and experts’ suggestions on A. Lukashenko’s probable contender, 18% of them (almost irregardless the sector they represent) are still convinced that the current president will win the coming presidential election. No other probable winner mentioned by respondents received over 2% of votes. Two thirds of respondents gave no answer at all.

Now, what are the prospects of Belarus in case A. Lukashenko wins the coming presidential election? As the Table 1 shows, leaders and experts are fairly pessimistic about country’s future. Only 7% of respondents anticipate better prospects (most of them represent the public sector).

Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question "How do you estimate the prospects of Belarus in case A. Lukashenko wins the coming presidential election?", %

Variant of answer	All respondents	Public sector employees	Private sector employees
The prospects of Belarus will aggravate	43	27	60
The prospects of Belarus will not change fundamentally	50	63	37
The prospects of Belarus will improve	7	10	3

Leaders and experts are to the same degree pessimistic about their personal future in case of such developments of the presidential election: only 3% of them hope for certain improvement. (See Table 2).

Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question "What changes do you personally expect in, let's say, 5 years in case A. Lukashenko wins the forthcoming presidential election?", %

Variant of answer	All respondents	Public sector employees	Private sector employees
My state will gradually aggravate	42	13	70
My state will not change fundamentally	55	84	27
My state will gradually improve	3	3	3

At the same time, opinions of public and private sector employees are transparently mirror-like. An absolute majority of the first hopes that no changes will happen in either country’s future (63%) or in their position (84%). This is a pretty odd optimism bearing in mind the future of G. Zhuravkova, M. Leonov, E. Rybakov, etc. Almost the same majority of respondents in the private sector predict aggravation of both country’s state (60%) and their own position (70%).

Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question "In you opinion, for how long will A. Lukashenko stay the president of Belarus?", %

Variant of answer	All respondents	Public sector employees	Private sector employees
For at least one more term after the election of 2006	67	90	43
Till 2006	21	–	43
For as long as he wants	10	10	10

Finally, two thirds of respondents are convinced that A. Lukashenko will stay for at least one more presidential term after the election of 2006 (See Table 3). Within the public sector, this is the opinion of 90% of leaders and experts and within the private sector – of 43%. Only 21% of respondents, all representing the private sector, still believe that A. Lukashenko will resign after 2006. Some 10% of leaders and experts are convinced that the current president will rule for as long as he wants. Apparently, the Belarusian elite doesn’t strive to follow the Cuba experience in a more severe climate of Belarus.