Dynamics of social indices in the second quarter of 2015 continued to be formed under the influence of oppositely directed economic and political factors. Economic factor influence remains negative in general. Over January-May real disposable household income of citizens decreased by 4.2% comparatively to the same period of previous year, while January-March decrease amounted to only 3%. That is to say that income decrease rate increased. However, growth of consumer price index did not slow down. In January it amounted to 102.4% comparatively to December, in May it amounted 100.7% comparatively to April.
As a result, in the list of most important issues facing our country, rating of price hike decreased from 84.1% in March down to 76.9% in June. At the same time, rating of unemployment substantially increased: from 47.2% up to 55.8%. It should be noted, that a year ago only each fourth Belarusian pointed out topicality of unemployment. This dynamics of unemployment rating is not fabricated by independent sociologists. It is confirmed by official statistics both on the level of “Belstat” and on the level of placement services.
What is important is that government and the National Bank managed to stabilize the rate of Belarusian ruble in the first half of current year. Taking into account level of dollarization of Belarusian economy, and, as a consequence, over-the-top dollarization level of mindsets, public opinion couldn’t but react to this positive signal.
As you can see from Table 1, the share of respondents, perceiving another devaluation of Belarusian ruble as a real threat dropped by 11.8 points in June relatively to January. This decrease should be considered quite significant. The main input in the number of respondents, fearing another devaluation, consists of the head of state’s opponents. There is nothing unexpected in it. In the split Belarusian society perception of economic reality depends on political preferences. In June 2015 A. Lukashenko’s opponents evaluated the threat of devaluation 2.8 times as high as his supporters (in September 2013 the factor was 3).
Table 1. Dynamics of answering the question: “Do you fear another devaluation Belarusian ruble in the next few months?”, %
|
Variant of answer
|
09’13
|
01’15
|
06’15
|
Attitude to A. Lukashenko
|
|
|
Trust
|
Don’t trust
|
||||
|
It’s a real threat
|
32.3
|
45.9
|
34.1
|
19.9
|
55.2
|
|
It’s possible, but unlikely
|
39.7
|
36.2
|
46.5
|
51.1
|
36.1
|
|
It won’t happen
|
20.5
|
11.5
|
12.1
|
19.7
|
4.1
|
|
DA/NA
|
7.5
|
6.4
|
7.3
|
9.3
|
4.6
|
The factor of ruble rate stabilization overbalanced the factor of real incomes’ decrease, and it is confirmed by a growth of financial standing index (FSI) from -37.7 in March up to -28.2 in June. This happened at the expense of a decrease of the share of respondents, who noted that their financial standing became worse (Table 2). FSI is the only of three social indices registered by IISEPS whose value turned out to be lower than in December 2013 (before “Crimeaisours”).
Table 2. Dynamics of answering the question: “How has your personal financial standing changed for the last three months?”, %
|
Variant of answer
|
06’11
|
12’13
|
03’14
|
06’14
|
09’14
|
12’14
|
03’15
|
03’15
|
|
It has improved
|
1.6
|
12.6
|
10.1
|
9.3
|
13.5
|
13.7
|
8.6
|
9.0
|
|
It has not changed
|
23.2
|
58.1
|
63.3
|
57.6
|
58.8
|
53.6
|
44.0
|
51.3
|
|
It has become worse
|
73.4
|
28.4
|
25.2
|
32.1
|
24.6
|
31.0
|
46.3
|
37.2
|
|
FSI*
|
–71.8
|
–15.8
|
–15.1
|
–22.8
|
–11.1
|
–17.3
|
–37.7
|
–28.2
|
* Financial standing index (the difference between positive and negative answers)
Russian TV’s interpretation of Ukrainian events triggered conventional hysterics. This hysterics is a form of psychological defense: people try to push away frightful reality. For them it’s easier to live inside a soothing myth, than think about threats they are unable to prevent.
In March 2014 (Tables 3-4) indices of expectation and policy correctness significantly increased comparatively to December (by 21 and 16.2 points accordingly), and it happened amid clearly defined negative trends in economy. This was the beginning of Anomaly-2014. Over the following 15 months it didn’t disappear completely, although its inner resource is close to exhaustion.
Table 3. Dynamics of answering the question: “How is the socio-economic situation going to change in Belarus within the next few years?”, %
|
Variant of answer
|
06’11
|
12’13
|
03’14
|
06’14
|
09’14
|
12’14
|
03’15
|
06’15
|
|
It is going to improve
|
11.9
|
12.5
|
24.0
|
28.6
|
18.6
|
23.6
|
23.1
|
21.7
|
|
It is not going to change
|
20.3
|
46.1
|
45.0
|
35.0
|
49.5
|
33.4
|
36.1
|
36.0
|
|
It is going to become worse
|
55.5
|
35.9
|
26.1
|
28.7
|
22.5
|
33.9
|
33.6
|
36.5
|
|
EI*
|
–43.6
|
–23.1
|
–2.1
|
–0.1
|
–3.9
|
–10.3
|
–10.5
|
–14.8
|
*Expectation index
Table 4. Dynamics of answering the question: “Do you think the state of things is developing in our country in the right or in the wrong direction in general?”, %
|
Variant of answer
|
09’11
|
12’13
|
03’14
|
06’14
|
09’14
|
12’14
|
03’15
|
06’15
|
|
In the right direction
|
17.0
|
31.9
|
40.2
|
42.3
|
43.0
|
43.8
|
36.9
|
34.6
|
|
In the wrong direction
|
68.5
|
54.1
|
46.2
|
42.3
|
43.5
|
42.9
|
45.8
|
49.4
|
|
DA/NA
|
14.5
|
14.0
|
13.6
|
15.4
|
13.5
|
13.3
|
17.3
|
16.0
|
|
PCI*
|
-51.5
|
–22.2
|
–6
|
0
|
–0.5
|
0.9
|
–8.9
|
–14.8
|
*Policy correctness index
This is one of distinctions of TV-propaganda influence on the population of Russia and Belarus. After a short pause Russians’ social optimism started to grow again. It was registered by Levada-Center. As for the level of support of the “national leader” (V. Putin), it jumped up to new historical maximums, according to results of all leading Russian sociological services.
After panicky expectations, which are typical for the beginning of a crisis, there was a gradual routinization. Nevertheless, two surveys in a row we register growth of the share of Belarusians who consider that there is a crisis in Belarus (Graph 1). In comparison with the minimal level of December 2014 it gained 19.7 points and is close to the symbolical 2/3 of It should be noted that the presence of crisis in Belarus is not admitted on the official level. A. Lukashenko prefers to speak about certain difficulties related to the crisis “which our main trade partners experience”.
Multidirectionality of dynamics of social indices should not surprise you. Those are not sociologist’s “blunders” caused by attempts to conduct national surveys in an authoritarian state using Western methods. It is important to accept that an individual person is not an indivisible unit in the process of analysis anymore. That is why his inner paradoxes shouldn’t be regarded as an annoying and sickly pathology.
Today a person from the mass registers at least two plans of current events. Judgments and evaluations of the everyday life are one of these plans; convictions about state and power are another. They cannot but contradict one another because, when evaluating the first plan, people give answers looking at price tags in shops, and when they evaluate the second plan, they base their opinion on TV-news.