SEPTEMBER ANOMALIES

Real gross monthly-average salary of working people in Republic of Belarus grew by 1.3% in January-August 2014 in comparison with the same period in 2013, notably in August 2014 it dropped by 2.2% in comparison with the previous month.

Salaries went down in August; the survey was conducted in the first half of September. It would seem that it shouldn’t be complicated to predict the influence of such an unusual event on social indices. However despite the patterns which were formed over the last two decades, reality was different. The current year 2014 stands a good chance to enter the history of independent sociology as the year of social anomalies. The reason for these anomalies is due to the multidirectionality of signals from economy and television (the level of hysteria on Russian TV-channels still didn’t go down after the annexation of Crimea in March 2014).

In comparison with June the share of Belarusians who find that their financial standing improved increased by 4.5 points, while the share of those who think that their financial position worsened decreased by 7.5 points at once. As a result the trend on the decrease of financial standing index, which was outlined in June, was “broken” (Table 1).

Variant of answer	06’11	06’13	09’13	12’13	03’14	06’14	09’14
It has improved	1.6	13.7	11.6	12.6	10.1	9.3	13.5
It has not changed	23.2	63.1	63.9	58.1	63.3	57.6	58.8
It has become worse	73.4	21.6	21.6	28.4	25.2	32.1	24.6
FSI*	–71.8	–7.9	–10.0	–15.8	–15.1	–22.8	–11.1

To rehabilitate partially the rationality of Belarusians it should be noted that pensions in August grew by 7% and it couldn’t but influence the social well-being of senior citizens. In September 10.7% of respondents from the youngest age group (18-29 years old) noted an improvement of their financial standing, while in the oldest age group (60 years old and older) this share amounted to 18.9%.

As for the vision of the future, it is quite fuzzy. The share of optimists dropped by 10 points comparatively to June, but at the same time the share of pessimists dropped as well – by 6.2 points. As a result, the expectation index dropped by 3.8 points (Table 2) amid a notable growth of the financial standing index. It’s is difficult to recollect when FSI and EI were so oppositely directed before.

Variant of answer	06’11	06’13	09’13	12’13	03’14	06’14	09’14
It is going to improve	11.9	17.7	17.5	12.5	24.0	28.6	18.6
It is not going to change	20.3	49.1	46.7	46.1	45.0	35.0	49.5
It is going to become worse	55.5	23.7	28.1	35.9	26.1	28.7	22.5
EI*	–43.6	–6.0	–10.6	–23.1	–2.1	–0.1	–3.9

A certain degree of abnormality could be noted in the behavior of the policy correctness index as well (Table 3). It has almost not changed at all. However, when we were analyzing the results of the June survey, we had noted a close connection between the PCI and the electoral rating of A. Lukashenko. This connection, according to our opinion, is due to the inability of public opinion to draw the line between the personality of the head of state and the course of development of the country. In September the PCI maintained its position amid the growth of A. Lukashenko’s electoral rating from 38.9% up to 45.2% (+6.3 points) and the growth of trust rating from 49.6% up to 53.5% (+3.9 points)!

Variant of answer	09’11	06’13	09’13	12’13	03’14	06’14	09’14
In the right direction	17.0	39.6	39.1	31.9	40.2	42.3	43.0
In the wrong direction	68.5	45.5	46.7	54.1	46.2	42.3	43.5
DA/NA	14.5	14.9	14.2	14.0	13.6	15.4	13.5
PCI*	–51.5	–5.9	–7.6	–22.2	–6.0	0	–0.5

In August the share of Belarusians thinking that there is an economical crisis in the country was record low after the year 2011, so unfortunate for Belarusians. That means that the June growth was not confirmed in this case as well (Table 4).

It should be noted that perception of economical situation as a crisis one is not really depending on the level of average income per family member. Moreover, the shares are equal in two extreme groups: up to 1.4 billion rubles – 47%, more than 4.2 billion rubles – 47.3%. It means that one can adapt to the current economical situation not only by increasing their incomes, but also but reducing their needs (negative adaptation).

This conclusion is confirmed by the inverse relationship between the perception of economical situation in Belarus as a crisis one and the age: youngest age group (18-29 years old) – 60.9%, oldest age group (60 years old and older) – 47.3%.

Summing up the anomalous reality perception of Belarusians let us turn to Table 5. If we omit the year 2009 (the world financial crisis), over 15 years we may see a distinct dependency between the dynamics of electoral rating of A. Lukashenko and the changes of real incomes of people. In this year the dependency doesn’t work. While the real incomes’ growth rate was at the level of years 2002-2003, the rating of the head of state turned out to jump by 11-12 points!

Index	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Incomes	114	128	104	104	110	118	118	113	113	103	115	99	121	115	104*
Rating	36	41	30	29	39	47	55	46	41	41	45	29	32	38	41**

Social indices document subjective feelings of citizens; they are not objective economical or political indices. Their stability amid the deterioration of economical situation confirms that mass consciousness is still euphoric about Belarusian stability amid the Ukrainian-Russian crisis. These moods are temporary, unstable; they can quickly change from positive to negative.

Consciousness of ordinary citizens is still complaisant as it was in Soviet times. Monopoly of state mass media is relative today, as almost 60% of Belarusians are able to receive alternative information from internet. Still the majority of them don’t want to be bothered by such activities. Stability is still not questioned, and this above all concerns people of a lower social status, who rest upon the state that provides their livelihood.