A range of questions from IISEPS archive was included in December survey, and this gives us an opportunity to track the dynamics of social opinion in Belarus over two decades.
In 1993 under the circumstances of democratic chaos (today A. Lukashenko actively resists its return) personal relations and dishonesty were seen as unarguable leaders in the list of sources of wealth (graph 1). The last place was taken by education. During the years of stability labor took the leadership, still personal relations never went lower than the second place.
During the “Year of Hospitality” (according to a decree of the head of state the year 2014 in Belarus was called the “Year of Hospitality”) personal relations once again headed the short-list of means leading to wealth. Their return to the first place became possible due to a catastrophic fall of labor’s value (–19.1 points compared to March 2009)! The value of education also notably lessened (–6.5 points).
We regard devaluation of labor and education as a result of state’s attempts to modernize economy in 2013. In his seasonal greetings A. Lukashenko thanked in particular those “who contribute to consolidation and prosperity of Belarus with their skilful hands and mastery, their talent and flashes of scientific genius, their firmness and courage”. Specialist of personal relations and dishonest people naturally weren’t mentioned in the speech. However, from the point of view of public opinion, Belarusian model grants these people with maximum chances for a worthy (financially speaking) life.
It should be noted that belief in labor as a means of achieving wealth enjoys greater popularity among retired people (60 years old and older) than among people of 18-29 years old – 52.4% vs. 39.4%! A similar paradox may be observed in regard to education as well. In positive role of education believe 45.7% of Belarusians with primary education and only 26.3% of respondents with higher education.
Over two decades attitude to necessity of millionaires for society made a positive shift: +9.8 points (graph 2). This shift happened mainly due to the fact that Belarusians less believe in possibility to make a fortune out of honest labor. This change is not so big, but statistically important.
A. Lukashenko’s opponents twice as often as his supporters think that Belarusian society need millionaires – 34.3% vs. 16.4%. There is nothing surprising about it, if you take into account socio-demographic structure of these social groups. In particular, the ratio of evaluations was 3.6-fold higher among young people (18-29 years old – 34.4%, 60 years old and older – 9.4%).
Belarusians’ attitude to private land ownership almost hasn’t changed over 21 years (Table 1). Almost three quarters of respondents demonstrate their market radicalism in regard to this question. Even the absolute majority of A. Lukashenko’s supporters support the idea of private land ownership.
Table 1. Dynamics of answering the question: “Do you consider private land ownership admissible in Belarus?”, %
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Variant of answer
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12’93
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12’14
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Attitude to A. Lukashenko
|
|
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Trust
|
Don’t trust
|
|||
|
Yes
|
72.1
|
73.6
|
63.9
|
84.7
|
|
No
|
26.6
|
19.6
|
26.9
|
12.5
|
|
NA
|
1.3
|
6.8
|
9.2
|
2.8
|
The only group of population where there is no majority of private land ownership supporters is people with incomplete secondary education (36.8%).
A. Lukashenko’s supporters didn’t know what to answer three times as often as his opponents. Probably, this should be explained by the fact, that there is a high share of rural citizens and pensioners among his supporters. The former as a rule own farmlands, the latter own dachas. That is why the answers recorded in table 3 should be regarded as a compromise between ideological setups which are important for seniors and natural need to own “a patch of land”.
But market radicalism of the absolute majority of Belarusians disappears as soon as there is a question on foreigners’ right to own land in Belarus (Table 2). Nevertheless, over 21 years public opinion made a step of 10.3 points towards the market. But even among people who don’t trust A. Lukashenko the share of people supporting foreigners’ right to own land in Belarus didn’t reach a half of respondents.
Table 2. Dynamics of answering the question: “Is it admissible that foreigners own land in Belarus?”, %
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Variant of answer
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12’93
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12’14
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Attitude to A. Lukashenko
|
|
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Trust
|
Don’t trust
|
|||
|
Yes
|
20.3
|
30.6
|
21.8
|
43.8
|
|
No
|
78.2
|
61.1
|
70.6
|
50.2
|
|
NA
|
1.5
|
8.3
|
7.6
|
6.0
|
Dynamics of answering the question of graph 3, recorded in the first three columns, is a reflection of dynamics or perestroika-period illusions of Belarusian society. In April 1992 amid positive expectations of material benefits of future transition to the market, absolute majority of Belarusians declaratively preferred possibility and necessity to choose suitable by quality social services.
It didn’t take long to sober up (see graph 3). After 1997 the ratio of answers became stable. Maybe it is optimal under the current state of Belarusian model.
Over the last 20 years there were significant changes in branches, were state monopoly becomes weaker (business, mass culture and so on). However the supporting institution of soviet and pre-soviet times is the same – uncontrollable power. Namely the power institutions (court, power structures and educational system) block the modernization of Belarusian society, i.e. they don’t let it become modern.