LANGUAGE AND NATIONAL IDENTITY

The last time that IISEPS asked the question on differences between Belarusians and Russians was in 2006. Dynamics of answers since 2002 was essentially insignificant. This question was asked again during the current survey, and answers given to it testify of some important changes (Graph 1).

National identity even in the most liberal interpretation includes realization of own singularity, distinguishability from others, even those, who are very close and nice, a realization of own collective “us”, which doesn’t include others, even if the attitude towards them is very good.

Table 1 demonstrates that there is in fact an intensification of realization of singularity of Belarusians from Russians: in three surveys, conducted in the XXI century, the share of respondents, who considered that there were no differences between the nations, oscillated around 40%; in the last survey this share amounted only to one third of respondents. However, the way the differences have changed is no less revealing.

In the surveys conducted between 2002 and 2006 the most popular variant was the Belarusian language. However, you may notice, how from one survey to another it was losing its ground as a quality which differentiates Belarusians and Russians. In the last survey it yielded the palm to differences in culture, traditions and history.

Many researchers noted the role of the Belarusian language as a means of “symbolic communication”, as a sign of national identity. This is confirmed by a significant gap between those Belarusians, who named Belarusian as their native language, and those, who said that they speak mostly Belarusian at home in the results of the last national census (Graph 2). However, according to the same census, both these shares decrease.

By the look of things this process led to the fact that for Belarusians language is not the main identifier of their difference from Eastern neighbors anymore. However, this process did not lead to a weakening of realization of differences in general. This happened at the cost of strengthening of other identifiers such as culture, traditions and history. Over 13 years the shares of respondents choosing these variants were constantly growing, having increased by 10 percentage points. As a result, Belarusians began to realize that they are different from their Eastern neighbors to even a greater extent.

The changing of the situation with the Belarusian language and its role in Belarusian society found its way into the answers to the question on preferred status of languages (Table 1).

Variant of answer	11’04	09’05	03’15
Belarusian should be the official language	16.8	20.1	14.5
Russian should be the official language	7.1	11.2	13.1
Both Belarusian and Russian should be official languages	71.8	56.0	48.3
I don’t care	–*	10.1	20.9
DA/NA	4.3	2.6	3.2

Table 1 results demonstrate a decrease of the share of supporters of Belarusian being the only official language in the country and an increase of adherents of Russian monolingualism. In March 2015 these shares became almost equal. It should be noted that position, mentioning Russian as the only official language in Belarus, is not present in Belarusian public discourse at all. There is an idea that factual ratio of languages is described by this formula, however, it seems that no one has ever advocated deprivation Belarusian of official language status. This doesn’t mean, however, that this opinion is not present in society: as you can see, it is, and it gathers more and more supporters.

We may suppose, that partially this is due to both the influence of the events in Ukraine (Crimea, Donbass) and the concept of “the Russian world”. However, this is not the only reason: in comparison with the 10-year-old results the share of supporters of official Russian monolingualism increased only by 2 points. If this opinion is the result of the influence of “the Russian world”, then it is not the only influence.

Another revealing result is the decrease of the share of supporters of the current juridical equality of two languages. In 2004 their advantage was overwhelming; in March 2015 they are only a relative majority. By the look of things, this happened at the cost of the share of respondents choosing the variant of answer “I don’t care”, as the share of people choosing this category has doubled over the decade.

We may suppose that the influence of “the Russian world” is more important in this aspect. The problem of language status became much more politically charged against the background of Ukrainian events, and this confused part of respondents. Their “I don’t care” is probably a synonym of “I don’t want this problem to create an occasion for troubles”.

This is not the notorious “fear factor” which is so beloved by certain publicists: even in their peculiar ideas of Belarusian society no one will arrest a man who speaks in favor of the officially existing bilingualism. But this is a fear of the possibility that a definite formula of language status will cause some undesirable consequences.

In March survey we’ve also asked questions on respondents’ reaction to a hypothetic armed invasion from Russia and NATO (Graphs 3 and 4).

There were no big changes in these moods over the quarter, however, the decrease of the share of those who are ready to resist Russian armed invasion is worth mentioning. Now this share is almost equal to the share of those who would greet this course of events.

Table 6 data demonstrate how correlate the answers to the questions on differences between Belarusians and Russians, preferred status of official languages and reaction to a hypothetic armed invasion from Russia.

Variant of answer	“If Russia tried to annex Belarus or its part with the help of armed forces, what would you do?”
	I’d resist up in arms	I’d try to adapt to a new situation	I’d greet these changes
How Belarusians differ from Russians?
By language	23.6	53.6	4.8
By culture and traditions	23.5	50.3	8.0
By history	18.5	53.7	5.2
By psychology	29.2	42.3	11.7
By appearance	30.6	48.6	15.3
They don’t differ	9.7	49.7	24.7
If there was a referendum on which language should be official in Belarus, which variant would you choose?
Belarusian should be the official language	36.5	40.6	4.1
Russian should be the official language	21.0	33.5	24.0
Both Belarusian and Russian should be official languages	16.4	51.4	10.5
I don’t care	9.1	51.4	28.4

Those, who think that Belarusians differ from Russians by psychology and appearance, are ready to resist an armed invasion to the greatest extent. Among those, who suppose, that the difference is in the language, the share of those, who are ready to fight, is the same as among those, who see the difference in culture and traditions. However, among those, who emphasize linguistic difference, the share of those who would greet an invasion is the lowest. It is quite natural, that respondents, who see no difference between Belarusians and Russians, are the least prone to resist an intervention from Russia.

Correlation between the characteristic under study and preferred status of official languages is quite enigmatic. As it was possible to suppose, adherents of Belarusian language officiality are most prone to the rejection of Russian intervention. However, the typical characteristic of the adepts of Russian monolingualism, despite the expectations, is not the readiness to greet “polite people” with flowers, but a contrast attitude – among them the number of those who are ready to adapt to the situation is the smallest, while the number of adherents and opponents of resisting is nearly equal.

Indifferent people are the most inclined to greeting such course of events.

In comparison with the previous surveys, the Belarusian language’s role as a national identifier has slightly declined, however it was substituted by other factors, and so the self-realization as a part of a national community became somewhat stronger.

Although adherence to the Belarusian language is a factor which determines rejection of a hypothetic Russian armed invasion, other identifiers determine this attitude to the same extent. And even the wish for the Russian language to be the only official one doesn’t cause maximal readiness to greet this course of events.