TWO VIEWS ON ECONOMIC CRISIS

Variant of answer	06’11	12’13	03’14	06’14	09’14	12’14	03’15
It has improved	1.6	12.6	10.1	9.3	13.5	13.7	8.6
It has not changed	23.2	58.1	63.3	57.6	58.8	53.6	44.0
It has become worse	73.4	28.4	25.2	32.1	24.6	31.0	46.3
FSI*	–71.8	–15.8	–15.1	–22.8	–11.1	–17.3	–37.7

* Financial standing index (the difference between positive and negative answers)

Table 2. Dynamics of answering the question: “How is the socio-economic situation going to change in Belarus within the next few years?”, %

Variant of answer	06’11	12’13	03’14	06’14	09’14	12’14	03’15
It is going to improve	11.9	12.5	24.0	28.6	18.6	23.6	23.1
It is not going to change	20.3	46.1	45.0	35.0	49.5	33.4	36.1
It is going to become worse	55.5	35.9	26.1	28.7	22.5	33.9	33.6
EI*	–43.6	–23.1	–2.1	–0.1	–3.9	–10.3	–10.5

* Expectation index

Table 3. Dynamics of answering the question: “Do you think the state of things is developing in our country in the right or in the wrong direction in general?”, %

Variant of answer	09’11	12’13	03’14	06’14	09’14	12’14	03’15
In the right direction	17.0	31.9	40.2	42.3	43.0	43.8	36.9
In the wrong direction	68.5	54.1	46.2	42.3	43.5	42.9	45.8
DA/NA	14.5	14.0	13.6	15.4	13.5	13.3	17.3
PCI*	-51.5	–22.2	–6.0	0	–0.5	0.9	–8.9

While analyzing the results of December survey, we constantly emphasized the fact that it was conducted in the beginning of the month, i.e. prior to the 30-percent devaluation of Belarusian ruble. Taking into account the level of dollarization of Belarusian economy and the level of dollarization of Belarusians’ thinking, we could have expected a collapse of social indices in the post-devaluation period. However, our expectations were realized only partially.

Financial standing index (FSI) is least prone to be influenced by any kind of propaganda. It decreased from –17.3 in December down to –37.7 in March (Тable 1). Over the last 10 years lower figures of FSI were registered only in 2011 (–71.8 is an absolute record).

These values of FSI (–17.3 in December 2014 and –37.7 in March 2015) are calculated for all respondents in the sample. But for respondents who trust and don’t trust A. Lukashenko we have a different dynamics: from 3.1 down to –12.1 for the former and from –44.2 down to –69.5 for the latter. Thus we can see that for supporters and opponents of A. Lukashenko perception of their own financial standing is significantly different. They live in different worlds. This is something that oppositional politicians should remember of when trying to get out of “oppositional ghetto”.

FSI decrease, however, had no reflection on the dynamics of the expectation index (EI). Its March value is almost the same as in December (Тable 2). This “insensibility” amid the landslide of life standards of population should be recognized as unique. The only argument we may come with to explain this, is the residual manifestation of Anomaly-2014. It should be noted, that even a year after “Crimeaisours” EI didn’t get back to the value of December 2013.

The policy correctness index (PCI) stays significantly higher than its December 2013 level as well, although it decreased down to a minimum value since March 2014 (Тable 3). The record high share of respondents, who didn’t know how to answer the question (17.3%), testifies on the presence of problems in evaluation of development of things in the country. This is an unmistakable sign of the fact that economic reality on domestic level and economic reality formed by TV-propaganda set contradictory signals.

However, majority of respondents had no such difficulties while answering the question “Do you think that Belarusian economy is in crisis?” (Graph 1). The share of positive answers has increased from 52.3% up to 67.5% over a quarter (+15.2 points!).

In that regard we cannot but mention that I. Medvedeva, the chairperson of National Statistical Committee, did not see economic crisis in Belarus. According to her statement during a press-conference in March, “don’t say that there is a crisis. There are certain difficulties, we can see them, and we note them. We see it in retail sales, which had been growing very quickly before, and now show only moderate rate. If there is a certain restoration of markets, if the measures for expanding export are taken, then there will be development”.

EI would have been much higher if people, working in National Statistical Committee, were part of the survey sample, taking into account their optimism.

Over the last six years Belarusians have survived two economic crises – in 2009 and 2011. The first one was provoked by the world financial crisis and did not influence the trust to the head of state and the government. The second one was unambiguously estimated by the public opinion as man-made, and it led to a record fall of ratings of A. Lukashenko and trust ratings of state institutions in general.

During current crisis propaganda is not as successful as in 2009, but the situation of 2011 seems to be quite far yet. In March 39.6% of Belarusians assessed government’s actions as inefficient (Тable 4), but you should also note the record high share of respondents who didn’t answer the question (36.7%). This is a stock for increasing both positive and negative assessments.

Variant of answer	All respondents	Attitude to A. Lukashenko
		Trust	Don’t trust
Government acts efficiently, but it is unable to resist external reasons of crisis (war in Ukraine, drop in oil prices and so on)	23.7	35.9	7.7
Government acts inefficiently, and the references to external reasons is just an attempt to decline responsibility for the crisis	39.6	13.8	71.9
DA/NA	36.7	50.4	20.4

Among A. Lukashenko’s supporters each second had difficulties in answering the question. You don’t see such things very often.

Social indices (indices of social well-being) are in the first place measurements of subjective feelings of people. They are not objective economical or political indices. Their exaggerated values are a distant reaction to historical moods of spring 2014. “Homo sovieticus” (their share in Belarusian society equals to at least 60%) reacted to “Crimeaisours” in the same way as his Russian “colleagues”. He became euphoric, and this euphoria helps him to survive economic and social hardships much easier. As any hysteria, this mood cannot be stable, and this is confirmed by the March decrease of FSI.