In March 2015 66.6% of Belarusian agreed that Belarusians, Russians, and Ukrainians are three branches of the same nation. Alternative viewpoint (i.e. different nations) was supported by 27.1% of respondents.
Popularity of this tight unity of the Slavic triangle is not substantive. And this is not a secret. It is not for nothing that in 2003 the then President of Ukraine L. Kuchma published a book called “Ukraine is not Russia”. In April 2015 the site of “Echo of Moscow” published results of sociological surveys, conducted simultaneously in Russia and Ukraine (Table 1). This sociological juxtaposition eloquently reflects special characteristics of mass consciousness in modern Russian and Ukrainian societies and demonstrates the deep difference between them.
Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question: “Who is the sole source of state power and the bearer of sovereignty in Belarus (Russia, Ukraine) according to the Constitution?”, %
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Variant of answer
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Russia*
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Ukraine**
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Belarus
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Attitude to A. Lukashenko
|
|
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Trust
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Don’t trust
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||||
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The President
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55
|
26
|
48.7
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60.7
|
37.5
|
|
The People
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23
|
57
|
44.5
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34.0
|
55.6
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* WCIOM, November 2014
** I. Bekeshkina, executive director of the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation
** I. Bekeshkina, executive director of the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation
According to the Constitution of the Russian Federation “the bearer of sovereignty and the only source of power in the Russian Federation shall be its multinational people”. In the Constitution of Ukraine this article (N 5) is formulated as follows: “The people are the bearers of sovereignty and the only source of power in Ukraine”. Thus, the theses of sovereignty source in both states are identical. However, the share of respondents, thinking that the head of state is the bearer of sovereignty and the source of power, is twice as high in Russia as in Ukraine.
There is a similar article in Belarusian Constitution as well (article N 3): “The people shall be the sole source of state power and the bearer of sovereignty in the Republic of Belarus”. So it was interesting to check the level of civic maturity of Belarusians, and we made it during our June survey.
As we expected, Belarusians’ answers are closer to the answers of Russians than to the answers of Ukrainians. Almost a half of respondents think that the President is the bearer of sovereignty. And this is not an issue of basic ignorance. Respondents, which have chosen the first variant of answers, are right in their own way. There are two realities in Belarus. Reality #1 is the reality of official public space, reality, described in the Constitution and laws. But there is also reality #2, and life in this reality is constructed according to informal rules on all levels (from the everyday level up to the highest level of political hierarchy). In reality #2 the President is definitely the bearer of sovereignty.
It is natural that respondents’ answers strongly depend on their political preferences, but even over one third of A. Lukashenko’s opponents based their answers on reality #2.
Level of education is a factor which positively influences the growth of civic maturity. That is why only 38.6% of respondents with higher education chose the first variant of answer, while this share among people with primary education amounted to 70.8%. Dependence on the age is not so significant: 18-29 – 47.1%, 60+ – 57.4%.
While almost half of Belarusians consider the head of state as the bearer of sovereignty, only 40.1% of respondents evaluate positively the concentration of power in the hands of one person (72.9% among those who trust A. Lukashenko and 7.4% among those who don’t). It should be noted that level of positive evaluations significantly depends on economic and political context (Graph 1). Thus, during the crisis year 2011 the share of respondents, who think that concentration of power in the hands of A. Lukashenko is favorable for Belarus, dropped down to 26.2%. On the opposite, under the influence of Anomaly-2014 and Anomaly-2015 this index grew by 6.8 points in comparison with December 2012.
Slightly more than half of respondents agree that A. Lukashenko knows where he leads the county (Table 2). Under the condition of system crisis, gradually engulfing Belarus, this index doesn’t inspire optimism. This share is significantly higher among those Belarusians who recognize the head of state’s right to be considered as the bearer of sovereignty – 70.7%.
Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question: “According to you, does Alexander Lukashenko know where he leads Belarus?” depending on the idea of the bearer of sovereignty and power in Belarus, %
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Variant of answer
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All respondents
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“Who is the sovereign?”
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|
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The President
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The People
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||
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Yes
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54.5
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70.7
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38.4
|
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No
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35.7
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23.5
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49.7
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DA/NA
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9.8
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5.8
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11.9
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Let us note that there is a gender influence in the answers to the question of Table 3: men – 40.4%, women – 59.6%. The inclination of “the fair sex” to prefer “strong politicians” is well-known, and Belarusian women are not an exception in this case.
Table 3 confirms the fairness of the slogan “The State for the People”, which you can see on the main page of the official site of the head of state. However, there is one reservation: mostly A. Lukashenko’s supporters consider Belarusian state as theirs. “Coefficient of split” in this case amounts to 5.1!
Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question: “Which of the following statements on Belarusian state, built under the rule of A. Lukashenko, do you agree with?”, %
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Variant of answer
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06’13
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06’14
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06’15
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Attitude to A. Lukashenko
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|
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Trust
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Don’t trust
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||||
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It is my state, it protects my interests
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33.2
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39.1
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41.2
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66.9
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13.2
|
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It is only partially my state, it doesn’t protect my interests enough
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45.2
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43.2
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43.8
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25.8
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63.6
|
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It is not my state, it does not protect my interests and I do not trust it
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15.5
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12.0
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9.7
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1.8
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20.3
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Let us note the 8-point growth of positive answers over two years. 5.9 of these points were added in June 2014, i.e. after “Crimeaisours”. The same dynamics with the opposite direction can be observed in the answers to the last variant of answer: “It is not my state, it does not protect my interests and I do not trust it”.
Dynamics of answers to the question of Table 4 is somewhat similar to the dynamics of answers to the previous question. However, there is a difference. March 2009 survey coincided with the peak of world financial crisis. Thus the increased feeling of vulnerability in society.
Table 4. Dynamics of answering the question: “Do you feel yourself protected from possible arbitrariness from the power, militia, State Motor Vehicle Inspectorate, internal revenue service, courts and other state institutions?”, %
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Variant of answer
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03’09
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03’12
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06’15
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Attitude to A. Lukashenko
|
|
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Trust
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Don’t trust
|
||||
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Definitely yes/Rather yes
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37.5
|
45.5
|
49.9
|
74.9
|
22.0
|
|
Rather no/Definitely no
|
56.9
|
51.1
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46.6
|
21.9
|
76.5
|
Over the six years the total of positive answers (Definitely yes/Rather yes) increased by 13.4 points, and this is what allows A. Lukashenko to hope for a high mark on the forthcoming “exam” (as the head of state puts it himself: “Election is an exam in front of people, in front of those, who entrusted us the destiny of Belarus”).
It is natural that the feeling of being protected from the arbitrariness of state services is much stronger among A. Lukashenko’s supporters than among his opponents.
“Each people have the government they deserve”. This aphorism, originating from the beginning of XIX century, is still topical two centuries later. However, in the conditions of a split society in authoritarian political systems only paternalistic majority have their (deserved) government.