THE AUTHORITY KEEPS ITSELF TO ITSELF MORE AND MORE

Naturally, it is calculated as a percentage of all respondents, but during election only the votes of people who took part in voting process (i.e. the turnout) are taken into account. In June 71.4% of respondents declared their readiness to vote: “Yes, sure” – 34.7% and “Rather yes” – 36.7%.

The readiness to support A. Lukashenko and the readiness to take part in election are interconnected. There is nothing surprising in it. The head of state’s supporters always were distinguished by their increased electoral activity.

Let us illustrate this statement. In the group of respondents who have unambiguously decided that they will take part in elections (“Yes, sure”) 57% will vote for A. Lukashenko; the share of those who will vote for him in the group “Rather yes” amounts to 42.6%, “Rather no” – 17.3%, “Sure, no” – 4.8%. Among the respondents who had not made up their minds 17.1% are ready to vote for the present President. A simple arithmetic calculation demonstrates that electoral rating of A. Lukashenko will equal 49.6% (from the number of those who will take part in elections).

Stability of A. Lukashenko’s rating (if we’re taking a six-month interval) is confirmed by stability of his trust rating. Its deviations over the last three quarter surveys don’t exceed statistical error (Graph 2). This stability, as we’ve already noted earlier, is the result of two counterbalancing factors: negative economic factor and positive political factor.

Table 1 allows us to evaluate the “rethinking” of the image of “popular president” by public opinion, which happened during the last nine years. Let us remind you that in 2006 Belarusian model passed the peak of its development. Accordingly, its architect received the highest level of positive evaluations that year. Table 1 is sorted by the difference between results in columns five and one.

Variant of answer	1	2	3	4	5	5 – 1
	08’06	09’10	06’11	06’12	06’15
On state officials	20.5	27.7	23.8	33.2	39.3	18.8
On presidential hierarchy line	37.0	39.3	37.9	45.4	48.8	11.8
On chiefs of large enterprises	13.5	13.4	12.0	14.1	23.0	9.5
On military force, KGB, MIA	48.6	45.4	52.5	56.6	55.3	6.7
On businessmen	4.5	3.5	2.5	5.5	9.4	4.9
On specialists	9.9	8.5	7.2	5.1	11.5	1.6
On cultural and scientific elite	8.3	4.6	4.1	3.5	9.6	1.3
On retired people	41.4	45.0	39.4	39.7	36.6	–4.8
On rural citizens	30.2	30.2	23.5	24.0	24.6	–5.6
On simple people	34.2	24.2	19.3	18.1	17.4	–16.8

Which groups gained popularity? First of all, it’s officials, presidential hierarchy line and security forces. But chiefs of large enterprises managed to squeeze in the list as well. This anomaly is a consequence of aggravation of economic problems. It’s not for nothing that in the list of statements that A. Lukashenko made during Message-2015 the most supported was “Economy is the guarantor of Belarusian independence, the pledge of peace and the foundation of future”. For the same reason businessmen and specialists have gained some popularity as well. But they shouldn’t be carried away. In absolute values security forces are still leading the list, outrunning businessmen by factor of 6.

Now let us turn to the lower part of the table. “Belarus is the state for people” – this is the official motto. Each of the head of state’s speeches reminds us that “the main task of economy development always was, is now and ever will be the growth of quality of life and financial well-being of people”. Social surveys however register an opposite trend. The head of state’s bases in society wear off, slowly but steadily. The power keeps itself to itself more and more. And society feels it, despite all the efforts of state propaganda.

The answers to the question on changes in life of Belarus after A. Lukashenko’s resignation (Graph 3) are mostly defined by electoral structure of Belarusian society, where the share of the head of state’s opponents equals roughly to 25%. In September 2011 at the peak of economic crisis this share jumped up to 35%, but quickly returned to the usual level as soon as people’s incomes started to grow.

Crises come and go. A. Lukashenko repeats this idea to his potential voters more and more often. Bur much more important is the fact that majority of Belarusians share the official viewpoint that current crisis is caused by external reasons, and thus not dependent on the power. They are ready to keep clam and tighten their belts. And judging by the results of June survey the resource of patience is large enough to endure up to October 11 – the day of elections.