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«INFOFOCUS» bulletin N 1 (178), 2017

E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 1, 2017 – ISSN 1822-5578
(only Russian)

Content

Introduction
1. Basic trends of January
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. Against the Constitution
3.2. Whose son of a bitch is he?
4. Economics
4.1. IMF raises global economic growth forecast
4.2. Optimism growth amid income fall
4.3. Strategy should be distinguished from wishes and desires
5. Finances
5.1. Enemy as a factor of financial stabilization
6. Our forecast for February
7. From the IISEPS desktop

Introduction:

Dear readers

Making forecasts for January in December isn’t very rewarding. First, you tend to generalize in view of the end of year. Second, January is usually not very eventful, taking into account that Russians don’t work the first half of the month.

Economic statistics published in January confirms the opinion of most experts (we mentioned it in the last forecast) regarding the stabilization of Russian economy (processing industry first of all). This way the probability of inertial scenario in Belarus becomes significantly higher. However, quod licet Jovi, non licet bovi. Even in the framework of inertial scenario Belarusian model cannot be stable without additional injections from outside.

This reality amid the conditions of shrinking natural rent makes an aggravation of conflict between Belarus and Russia unavoidable. Taking into account mental peculiarities of the head of Belarusian state, the conflict is doomed to pass from national to personal level. We could observe this on February 3, during the “Big talk with the President”.

During the talk Alexander Lukashenko confirmed his requirement to raise the average salary up to $ 500 in 2017 — or “to die trying”. But the members of the government and Prime Minister Andrei Kobyakov personally should not worry for their lives. It can be proven by the complex of measures on implementation of the Program of social and economic development of the Republic of Belarus in 2016-2020, approved by the Council of Ministers on January 12. The document doesn’t mention a single action to achieve this “holy number”. Remembering the saying “sink or swim”, we would recommend Belarusians not to count on help from “the state for the people” and to start actively moving on to improve their financial positions.

As it is traditional in Belarus, in January the average salary will decrease in comparison with December, and it will strengthen the cognitive dissonance formed by Lukashenko in the heads of Belarusians. However, the consequences of such an exotic initiative will appear only closer to the end of the year, if at all.

IISEPS board