«

»

«INFOFOCUS» bulletin N 7 (173), 2016

E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 6, 2016 – ISSN 1822-5578
(only Russian)

Content:

Introduction
1. Basic trends of June
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. NOC vs. IOC
3.2. Where the shortage of legitimacy pushes the power
4. Economics
4.1. Barrel of oil became cheaper by 15%
4.2. Economic decline slowed down, but that’s not a barnburner
4.3. Reflexive verb and statistics
5. Finances
5.1. “Bad” debts of banks grow at a record high rate
6. Our forecast for August
7. From the IISEPS desktop

Introduction:

Dear readers!

In full concordance with the tradition (we’ve reminded our readers about it in the forecast for July) the main newsmaker of the month is the head of the Central Electoral Committee Lydia Yermoshina. Only the head of state can compete with her in the number of innovative declarations. The source of inspiration for the stand-up specialists in Belarus is irresponsibility, which, in its turn, is one of basic elements of the Belarusian model.

The main competitor for the first place of July rating is Yermoshina’s declaration regarding the criterion of Belarusians choosing oppositional parties. This criterion is unsuccessful private life and inability to build relationships with surrounding people. In other words, normal people in Belarus cannot be a part of opposition. Bravo! It’s likely that no one before managed to express the essence of state ideology so precisely.

There was no need for high analytical abilities to foresee the results of formation of precinct electoral commissions. After the constitutional referendum of 1996 this mechanism of formation works like a Swiss clock. Over the two decades there wasn’t a single serious failure. July 2016 did not become an exclusion. Only 53 representatives of opposition were included in the harmonious collective of 70 thousand members of precinct electoral commissions.  

Our forecast regarding the evolution of another oil-and-gas conflict between Belarus and Russia turned out to be correct. First, the conflict did not end. Second, Russia started to carry out the threat to reduce the oil supply to Belarusian oil refinery plants. The events are clearly evolving not according to the scenario of “trade wars” between the founders of the Union State established over the last 20 years.

As for our certainty about the stabilization of oil prices around $ 50 for barrel and positive effect on Russian (and therefore Belarusian) economy, we admittedly were too fast to think so. The price of black gold dropped by 20% in comparison with June highs, and this fact will have a negative effect on economic revival.

IISEPS executive board