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«INFOFOCUS» bulletin N 6 (172), 2016

E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 6, 2016 – ISSN 1822-5578
(only Russian)

Content:

Introduction
1. Basic trends of May
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. Three steps to nowhere
3.2. Four stages of gas conflict
4. Economics
4.1. Non-economic view on Brexit
4.2. Russia is trapped by low growth rates
4.3. Reforms are in progress, but they need a boost
5. Finances
5.1. Life at creditors’ bidding
6. Our forecast for July
7. From the IISEPS desktop

Introduction:

Dear readers!

In the end of June IISEPS published results of another quarterly survey. In our forecast for June we’ve been warning that “it won’t be easy for us to repeat our March success in regard to the results of June survey”. Situation in economy in the second quarter gained some stability in comparison with the first quarter. Besides, there was the factor of time, which permitted people to get used to (to adapt) to the negative changes. That is why we expected with a high level of probability that we’ll register the “effect of negative stabilization”. However, survey results exceeded all our expectations: majority of the indices, which register dynamics of social moods, increased in June comparatively to March.

The V All-Belarusian People’s Assembly did not spring any surprises. Nevertheless, just as we’ve supposed it, it turned out to be a symbolic event in the history of the Belarusian model. Amid the situation when negative trends in economy, state and society grow like a snowball, 2.5 thousand of delegates demonstrated complete inability to adequately assess what is going on. In spite of the promised dialog between the power and the representatives of people, we have witnessed another vain ranting. No one was looking for a solution to the current situation since there was a mass inability and a mass reluctance to look at the real situation in the country.

Our forecast regarding the progression of the “gas war” between Belarus and Russia came true as well. The war did not end in June, despite the fact the heads of state had an opportunity to discuss it tête-à-tête. Our presumption regarding the future winner of the war didn’t lose its topicality as well. Despite the tradition formed over many years, the final victory will probably be Russia’s. This is confirmed by the consistent and uncompromising position of high-level Russian officials, demonstrated in June.

 

IISEPS executive board