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«INFOFOCUS» bulletin #4, 2016

E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 4, 2016 – ISSN 1822-5578
(only Russian)

Content:

Introduction
1. Basic trends of April
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. In expectation of “matrix” able to bring executive committees to senses
3.2. Leadership is the key
4. Economics
4.1. Russia and Venezuela did not convince Saudis
4.2. Sanctions’ cancellation will not bring past back
4.3. It’s easy to take a credit. But how to return it?
5. Finances
5.1. Administrative pressure on credit rates
6. Our forecast for May
7. From the IISEPS desktop

Introduction:

Dear readers!

Despite our doubts, Message-2016 was held. But, as we’ve supposed it, last-year agenda was swept into a corner. A. Lukashenko didn’t say a word on the reasons of cancellation of three previous meetings. He concentrated his energy on assigning new tasks. Realization of these tasks will permit the first year of the fifth five-year period to become “crucial for overcoming negative trends in economy”. Naturally, analysis of reasons of these “negative trends” were reduced to mentioning of “external factors”. A. Lukashenko pins his hopes for the turning point on high level of organization and initiative of bureaucracy.
In full concordance with our forecast the government suggested to perform gestures, supposed to symbolize their readiness to carry out structural reforms. Similar gestures were and are performed exclusively for the external audience, in this case for the mission of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, which worked in Belarus in the beginning of April. According to the statement of the WB economist for Belarus K. Gayduk, the gestures of the government made a good impression on the public. Quote from belrynok.by: “The economist (K. Gayduk) believes that certain steps in concordance with declared policy of restructuration of state enterprises are already taken in Belarus. “An interdepartmental workgroup was created. It will investigate their state. Also there were signals that there is a possibility of revising procedures of readjustment and bankruptcy”.
We never had any doubts about the ability of Belarusian bureaucracy to create interdepartmental workgroups. Another interdepartmental group (on housing services and utilities) presented their variants of reforming the branch in the first days of May. There are no problems with giving signals as well. The principle “You want songs? I’ll give you songs” never was difficult for specialists on elaborating program documents.
Despite our expectations, negotiations in Washington D.C. between the Belarusian delegation headed by the vice chairman of board of the National Bank D. Kolechits and the representatives of the IMF did not end with a final decision on granting credit. However, taking into account the April mission of the WB and the IMF, our conviction on positive decision remains in force.

IISEPS executive board