Crisis has significantly adjusted respondents’ answers to the question “Do you think that nowadays young people can make a successful career in Belarus?” (Table 1). Majority still believes in the possibility of a successful career, but this majority is not absolute anymore, and in comparison with September 2014 it decreased by 9.9 points.
Table 1. Dynamics of answering the question: “Do you think that nowadays young people can make a successful career in Belarus?”, %
| Variant of answer | 03’02 | 04’06 | 03’11 | 06’12 | 09’14 | 03’16 |
| Yes, they can | 43.2 | 61.6 | 45.9 | 46.2 | 57.6 | 47.7 |
| No, they cannot | 39.4 | 30.7 | 44.9 | 44.4 | 33.9 | 39.1 |
| DA/NA | 17.4 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 13.2 |
These dynamics remind us again that resource for Anomalies 2014 and 2015 is exhausted. Nevertheless, table 1 results register that public opinion has issues evaluating reality rationally. When you are not politically engaged, it is difficult to believe in the prospect of a good career in a country where 123 people compete for one watchman vacancy and where demand for new employees dropped by 20% since the beginning of the year.
Cross-analysis confirms that these answers are indeed politically encaged. Among A. Lukashenko’s supporters 64.2% of respondents gave positive answers; among his opponents this share is almost twice as low – 34.6%. 81.9% (!) of Belarusians with primary education (mostly retired women living in villages) believe in career prospects of young people; among Belarusians with higher education this share is significantly lower – 41%. As for the dependency between the age of respondents, there is nothing surprising about it: 18-29 – 40.4%, 60+ – 66.9%.
In July 2014 the effect of “Crimeaisours” was reflected (although minimally) on Belarusians’ declarative readiness to move to another country for permanent residence (Table 2). If, owing to understandable reasons, we exclude the results of 2006, then you can see that the total share of people thinking about emigration decreased down to a minimum. “Low base” effect made March increase (+3.9 points) especially noticeable.
Table 2. Dynamics of answers to the question: “Would you like to move to another country for permanent residence provided you have such a possibility?”, %
| Variant of answer | 10’01 | 06’06 | 03’11 | 09’13 | 07’14 | 03’16 |
| Germany | 18.5 | 11.4 | 16.0 | 11.2 | 10.3 | 8.1 |
| U.S. | 6.1 | 7.2 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 7.2 | 9.3 |
| Poland | 5.8 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 5.5 |
| Russia | 3.6 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| Baltic countries | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 |
| Other country | 6.3 | 2.7 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 11.2 |
| Total | 42.1 | 33.5 | 45.4 | 39.8 | 37.9 | 41.8 |
| I don’t want to move | 52.0 | 57.6 | 50.6 | 52.3 | 53.3 | 50.2 |
| DA/NA | 5.9 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 8.3 |
According to Eurostat, about 80 thousand Belarusians obtained residence permits in the E.U. countries in 2014. This difference between the real numbers and survey numbers confirms again that respondents’ answers are mostly declarative.
In March the shares of respondents not wanting to move out of Belarus were as follows: 46.3% – men and 53.6% – women; 28.5% – aged between 18 and 29 and 77.3% – aged over 60; 87.2% – primary education and 43.4% – higher education. So, the dependency between the level of patriotism and personal resources is confirmed again. If one wants to compete for the title of the “true patriot”, one has to be elderly, uneducated, and, if possible, a woman.