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MARCH 2016: DURING THE CRISIS PEOPLE PREFER A LIVING DOG TO A DEAD LION

87.8% of Belarusians admit that there is a crisis in the country, however only 24% of them think that Belarusian economy has collapsed. Relevance of this ratio is confirmed by results of Table 1. Crisis didn’t lead to a reevaluation of economic perceptions of Belarusians. In particular, it didn’t lead to a decrease of mass belief into efficiency of state-owned property. On the contrary, March 2016 survey registered an insignificant shift of economic priorities in favor of state-owned property.

Table 1. Dynamics of answering the question: “Which proprietary type is more effective economically according to you?”, %

Variant of answer  

12’93

 

11’94

 

06’97*

 

03’14

 

03’16

State

29.0

39.7

48.3

37.7

40.6

Private

52.8

45.9

44.0

51.3

46.1

Reasonable mix of both

11.7

8.6

Collective

1.0

0.5

Other

0.9

2.9

5.7

2.8

3.5

NA

4.6

2.4

2.0

8.2

9.8

* As the list of proposed variants was changed, it wouldn’t be correct to compare the results of 1993-96 yrs. to the results of 1997-2016 yrs.

Need for security is one of the basic human needs. New and unknown are scary. That is why the demand for stability rises during the epoch of changes. Just like a monkey in Harry Harlow’s experiment, a man under stress prefers to cuddle himself up to something familiar and well-known. Security is more important than financial well-being. According to Harry Harlow, the results if his experiment demonstrated, that the need for contact comfort is more important than nursing.

The rise of belief in efficiency of state property amid the crisis spawns the “contact comfort”. This rise is based on the instinctive inclination to cuddle up to the “breast of state” and increase your own level of security.

It is natural, that supporters of A. Lukashenko, devoid of personal resources, find state-owned property more efficient more often than their political opponents: 64.2% vs. 21.6%. Two years ago the ratio of economic priorities was quite similar: 61.2% vs. 16.7%. Hence, the crisis enforced the belief in efficiency of state property in both supporters and opponents of A. Lukashenko.

It is difficult for public opinion to evaluate rationally the efficiency of different forms of property. There is no consensus among Belarusian economists as well. That is why respondents, when they are answering questions like this, are guided by their ideological preferences as a rule. But the question about kind of enterprise where respondent would like to work is very down-to-earth, especially for those, who are looking for employment (Table 2).

Table 2. Dynamics of answering the question: “What enterprise would you like to work at?”, %

Variant of answer  

11’97

 

06’06

 

10’08

 

09’09

 

03’11

 

03’13

 

03’14

 

03’16

State enterprise

53.5

52.0

44.9

44.1

43.0

40.5

40.2

41.0

Private enterprise

35.7

33.0

33.1

28.0

36.2

41.0

41.1

42.1

The older respondents are, the more they prefer state property: 18-29 – 26.1%, 30-49 – 29.5% and 40-49 – 36.1%. Smooth increase is replaced by a sharp jump with the next age group: 50-59 – 52.3%. And another smooth increase: 60+ – 59.8%.

This dependency on age is based on life, and Belarusians’ awareness of latest economic theories doesn’t affect it. Equality of all forms of property is declared in the Constitution (Article 13). However, in reality declared equality is not observed, and financial support from budget to state enterprises is much bigger than support to private enterprises.

Growing concerns about possible loss of habitual stability is illustrated by the dynamics of answering question of Table 3. The share of people who are ready to risk for higher incomes decreased by 7.3 points over two years. However, current concern shouldn’t be regarded as panics. We recommend you to pay attention to the second row of Table 3. The decrease of the share of people willing to risk did not lead to an increase of the share of people who prefer lower salary on a guaranteed job. This is possible at the expense of the increase in the row “DA/NA”. Redistribution of answers in favor of undecided respondents is a sure sign of a transition state.

Table 3. Dynamics of answering the question: “What would you choose?”, %

Variant of answer  

04’92

 

03’14

 

03’16

A high salary with a high risk of losing your job

51.4

47.1

39.8

A low salary on a guaranteed job

45.9

51.8

51.5

DA/NA

2.7

1.1

8.7

For solving mutually exclusive tasks of maintaining stability and adapting to changes nature introduced gender division. Women are responsible for maintaining stability, and men are responsible for adaptation. Hence the reinforced readiness to risk among the representatives of “sterner sex”. Particularly, answering the question of Table 3, first variant of answer was chosen by 46.2% of men and 34.6% of women.

Readiness to risk naturally declines with age: from 55.7% in 18-29 group down to 17.6% in 60+ group.

Natural desire to minimize the risks in the conditions of economic crisis didn’t lead to a change in the answers to the question “Should state set limits (a “cap”) for the maximal personal income of its citizens?” In March 2016 21.2% of respondents answered in favor of a “cap”. In March 2014 this share amounted to 21.6%, and in its turn, it was almost the same as in March 1993 – 22.5%.

Many times A. Lukashenko mentioned the transitive character of Belarusian economy, but not a single time he explained between which states this transition is. Dynamics of answering the question “Would you wish your children run their own private businesses, associate their lives with entrepreneurship?” (Table 4) give us ground to exclude market economy from the list of possible destinations of Belarusian model.

Table 4. Dynamics of answering the question: “Would you wish your children run their own private businesses, associate their lives with entrepreneurship?”, %

Variant of answer  

11’99

 

12’02

 

06’06

 

06’08

 

03’11

 

06’12

 

07’13

 

03’16

Yes

38.1

46.4

46.8

32.6

53.8

46.0

48.0

40.8

No

26.0

37.1

34.3

49.7

33.8

40.4

36.3

41.1

DA/NA

35.9

16.5

18.9

17.7

12.3

13.6

15.7

18.1

Over two years the share of positive answers decreased by 7.2 points. We cannot exclude that the conflict between individual entrepreneurs and the state did not affect this. Active phase of this conflict coincided with the first quarter of 2016. But this conflict didn’t start without a reason. From the first day as the President the main architect of the “state for the people” treated entrepreneurs as “lice-ridden fleas”. Hence there is nothing surprising in the fact that the share of positive answers to the question of Table 4 didn’t change much over the last 17 years.

Before the beginning of Anomaly-2014 the share of Belarusians who didn’t recognize progress of Belarusian model amounted to 34.1% (Table 5). Euphoria caused by the restitution of “historic justice” in Crimea decreased the share of negative evaluations down to 27% (–7.1 points). Exhaustion of mobilization resource of “Crimeaisours” led to another increase of negative evaluations.

Table 5. Dynamics of answering the question: “There are different opinions concerning the progress of Belarusian economy model. Which one do you agree with?”, %

Variant of answer  

12’12

 

12’13

 

03’15

 

03’16

There is no progress in the Belarusian economy

33.7

34.1

27.0

37.1

Without the help of Russia there would be no progress in the Belarusian economy

28.4

28.7

35.4

31.2

This progress is explained by internal factors; Russian aid is an important but not decisive factor

28.1

30.5

32.4

26.2

DA/NA

9.8

6.7

5.2

5.5

A. Lukashenko’s supporters notice progress in Belarusian economy 7 times as often as his opponents: 50.8% vs. 7.3%.

In contrast to collapsing social indices, economic preferences of Belarusians under the influence of crisis changed insignificantly. As for the perception of “progress of Belarusian model”, the shift towards the negative evaluations, observed in the first quarter of 2016, may be regarded as a start of a new trend. It should be noted, that currently there are no external or internal factors, able to stop this trend.