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DECEMBER 2015: TIME TO REDUCE NEEDS

Belarusians’ ability to perceive reality critically is defined by their personal resources. Elderly people with low level of education voluntarily agree to transfer the right of “reality definition” to the state, and that is why they can easily be manipulated by official propaganda.

Let us look at Table 1. Three years running the share of respondents, who evaluate the past year negatively in comparison with the previous year, is growing. It’s not yet close to the level of negativity in 2011, but the new trend is quite clear.

Table 1. Dynamics of answering the question: “Was the past year more difficult or easier for Belarus than the previous one?”, %

Variant of answer 12’08 12’09 12’11 12’12 12’13 12’14 12’15
More difficult 42.8 52.4 74.7 41.0 38.6 45.6 51.1
Same 44.6 38.3 21.6 41.8 50.4 43.1 41.0
Easier 7.7 7.6 2.5 14.0 10.1 9.9 5.8
DA/NA 4.9 1.7 1.2 3.2 0.9 1.4 2.1

In December 2015 the variant “more difficult” was chosen by 54.5% of young people aged 18-29 and 46.6% of those who are older than 60; by 55.6% of Belarusians with higher education and by 29% of respondents with primary education. In the end, the negative evaluation of the past year turned out to be quite politically charged: A. Lukashenko’s supporters – 41.2%, opponents – 63.9%.

Table 2 results permit us to pass from macro to micro level, i.e. to the level of an individual. Dynamics of evaluations here is the same as the dynamics in Table 1 after 2011. It should be noted, that world financial crisis of 2009 wasn’t noticed by Belarusians personally.

Table 2. Dynamics of answering the question: “Was the past year successful or unsuccessful personally for you?”, %

Variant of answer 12’08 12’09 12’11 12’12 12’13 12’14 12’15
Successful 46.3 48.2 33.0 44.0 48.7 47.6 41.8
Unsuccessful 33.1 35.1 45.9 35.8 35.7 32.6 37.4
DA/NA 20.6 16.7 21.1 20.2 15.6 19.8 20.8

Belarus is a country where success first of all attends people with low level of education (primary – 64.5%, higher – 38.6%) and women (women – 46.2%, men – 36.6%). But the level of evaluations in young and old age groups turned out to be almost the same: 45.4% vs. 45.7%. It is understandable, that A. Lukashenko’s supporters are more successful than his opponents: 51.3% vs. 31.3%.

During 2015 official statistics registered a constant decrease of real disposable household income (–5.4% over January-October) and real salary (–3.8% over the same period). According to the results of a spot check of standards of living of households, only 10.7% of them evaluated positively the changes of their financial position in comparison with the previous year; 55.7% of households underlined stability of their financial standing; and 33.6% noticed that their financial position became worse in the current year.

Above mentioned results correlate quite well with the IISEPS results (Table 3). In particular, the share of Belarusians, who noticed an improvement of their financial position in 2015, is almost equal to the result of Belstat. The amateurs of blaming IISEPS sociologists for “fabricating the results” (there are enough of them both among opposition and personnel of state sociological services) should notice this coincidence.

Tables 3-5 demonstrate the dynamics of social indices. All three tables are constructed according to the same principle: the first column reflects the historical lows registered in 2011; the second column reflects the results of survey conducted in December 2013 (the last survey before Crimea annexation); the third column reflects the results of the survey conducted in March 2014 (the first survey after Crimea annexation); the next four columns reflect the results of quarterly surveys of 2015.

Table 3. Dynamics of answering the question: “How has your personal financial standing changed for the last three months?”, %

Variant of answer 06’11 12’13 03’14 03’15 06’15 09’15 12’15
It has improved 1.6 12.6 10.1 8.6 9.0 9.8 10.5
It has not changed 23.2 58.1 63.3 44.0 51.3 44.4 45.9
It has become worse 73.4 28.4 25.2 46.3 37.2 42.5 42.4
FSI* –71.8 –15.8 –15.1 –37.7 –28.2 –32.7 –31.9

* Financial standing index (the difference between positive and negative answers)

Table 4. Dynamics of answering the question: “Do you think the state of things is developing in our country in the right or in the wrong direction in general?”, %

Variant of answer 09’11 12’13 03’14 03’15 06’15 09’15 12’15
In the right direction 17.0 31.9 40.2 36.9 34.6 34.8 36.7
In the wrong direction 68.5 54.1 46.2 45.8 49.4 48.0 50.9
DA/NA 14.5 14.0 13.6 17.3 16.0 17.2 12.4
PCI* –51.5 –22.2 –6.0 –8.9 –14.8 –13.2 –14.2

*Policy correctness index

Table 5. Dynamics of answering the question: “How is the socio-economic situation going to change in Belarus within the next few years?”, %

Variant of answer 06’11 12’13 03’14 03’15 06’15 09’15 12’15
It is going to improve 11.9 12.5 24.0 23.1 21.7 20.6 16.5
It is not going to change 20.3 46.1 45.0 36.1 36.0 37.2 40.2
It is going to become worse 55.5 35.9 26.1 33.6 36.5 36.2 36.4
EI* –43.6 –23.1 –2.1 –10.5 –14.8 –15.6 –19.9

* Expectation index

Financial standing index (FSI) is the only social index, value of which decreased below the value of December 2013. Nevertheless, its relative stabilization in the current year should be noted as well. This means that, despite alarmist forecasts of independent analysts, there was no increase in perception of worsening of financial standing in society.

Naturally, perception of one’s own financial standing is politically charged. Thus, in December 60.1% of A. Lukashenko’s opponents and only 26.9% of his supporters noticed its worsening.

Policy correctness index (PCI) became more stable over the last three quarters, but, unlike FSI, it didn’t return to the value of December 2013 (Table 4). This question is also politically charged, and this can be seen in the fact that the share of positive evaluations among A. Lukashenko’s supporters is six times as high as among his opponents: 64.8% vs. 10.5%.

Paternalist systems are very flexible, mainly because they can be fared by people’s expectations. Correctness of this politological maxim is confirmed by the dynamics of expectation index (EI). In March 2014 it grew faster than PCI (21 vs. 16.2). This rise is a direct result of euphoria provoked by the annexation of Crimea. Judging by the EI, this euphoria still didn’t disappear completely. Let us note that women were twice as full of expectations as men in December 2015: 20% vs.12.2%. Prevailing of A. Lukashenko’s supporters over his opponents is even more impressive: it’s almost 5-fold (27.3% vs. 5.7%).

Relative stabilization of social indices is confirmed by the dynamics of answers to the question “Do you think that Belarusian economy is in crisis?” (Table 6). As you can see, in December the share of Belarusians who agree that country’s economy is in crisis dropped by 8.2 points: from 75.1% down to 66.9%.

Table 6. Dynamics of answering the question: “Do you think that Belarusian economy is in crisis?”, %

Variant of answer 09’11 12’13 03’14 03’15 06’15 09’15 12’15
Yes 87.6 68.6 54.6 67.5 72.0 75.1 66.9
No 8.0 22.2 34.5 20.0 16.9 16.2 17.9
DA/NA 4.4 9.2 10.9 12.5 11.1 8.7 15.2

Main conclusion that we can make based on the results of December survey is that Belarusian society actively adapts to the new (crisis) economic reality, and this happens due to the so called negative adaptation, i.e. at the expense of reduced needs. Typical representative of Belarusian majority wasn’t distinguished by high economic needs even before the crisis. A person, completely dependent on the state (on the authority), is used to tightening the belt. This is what they are going to do right now.