“INFOFOCUS” N10, 2015

E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 10, 2015 – ISSN 1822-5578
(only Russian)


1. Basic trends of October
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. The main thing is to get rid of the goat
3.2. What’s at the output?
4. Economics
4.1. Need for stimulators has reached critical level
4.2. The anniversary of import substitution program
4.3. “The system is working well, but there are no limits for perfection”
5. Finances
5.1. The payments will come, but not in block
6. Our forecast for November
7. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers!

When we were predicting another electoral victory of A. Lukashenko, we were basing on the dynamics of his official rating of trust. Let us remind you that according to the data of the Information and Analytical Center at the Belarus President Administration, in November 2010 trust rating amounted to 80.5%, and in August 2015 – 76.6%, i.e. it decreased by 3.9 points. Naturally, we assumed, that the Central Election Committee will correct the results of elections accordingly. But our assumption did not come true. The CEC made just the opposite. They have increased A. Lukashenko’s result by 3.82 points in comparison with December 2010 (from 79.65% up to 83.47%).
This decision of L. Yermoshina’s department needs an explanation. We suppose that amid the decrease of socio-economic part of A. Lukashenko’s legitimacy, there was a need of a symbolic part. Electoral campaign of the head of state was based on this, and the final chord was the Prayer for Belarus on October 2 on the steps of the Church of All Saints.
As we’ve supposed, Belarusians won’t be denied the opportunity to watch the so-called “popular assembly”. On October 15 M. Myasnikovich, the speaker of the Council of the Republic of Belarus stated, that the program of social and economic development of Belarus for 2016-2020 would be presented to the delegates of the V All-Belarusian People’s Assembly. However having said A, the power hasn’t said B. There were no explanations or addendums after the 15th of October. Nevertheless, we want to believe that Belarusians won’t be deprived of the program of development for the next 5 years.
The power used our recommendation and didn’t increase the prices for “socially important goods and services” right after the elections. The exchange rates were stable in the second half of October as well. But there is still some time before the end of the year, and time is not on the side of simple citizens. In particular, on November 1 the prices of all brands of cigarettes were increased.
The OSCE, unlike the CIS mission, did not recognize the presidential elections as democratic. There is nothing unexpected about it, so the results announced at the press-conference on the 12th of October were not revised.
Despite our hopes, the Council of Ministers Regulation № 666, envisaging that virtually every batch of imported products should be subjected to a sanitary-hygienic examination, was not corrected.

IISEPS executive board