«

»

ELECTORATE DIVISION BROADENS

As usual, respondents were asked to express their attitude toward the president and his policies. President A. Lukashenko’s rating appears to have withstood all the trials of the recent past, even easing up a bit (Table 1). Much as during the previous polls, cognitive, emotional and motivational characteristics of the people’s stance to the president were used to form an aggregate indicator, which divided the population into president’s pronounced supporters and opponents (see Table 2).

Table 1. President Lukashenko’s rating, %

Table 2. Alexander Lukashenko’s electorate typology, based on an aggregate indicators, %

The number of president’s proponents appears to have increased somewhat, with the total of his adversaries easing down. At this point, it can be asserted that the Russian financial and political crisis is one of the primary causes of this phenomenon. Belarusian and Russian anti-market forces have effectively used the turmoil to discredit the reformers and their policies.

The poll data clearly shows that Alexander Lukashenko and his policies have had the greatest impact on the split of the Belarusian electorate, which is clearly seen from the respondents’ preferences (Table 3).

Table 3. Political values of the Belarusian electorate (% of each group)

Political values

Lukashenko’s supporters

All respondents

Lukashenko’s opponents

Prefer political systems:
– authoritarian regime

53.8

16.3

35.4

– democracy

30.4

14.4

53.5

What must be the relations between Russia and Belarus:
– neighbourly relations of two independent states

35.8

50.8

66.1

– merger into one state

31.3

20.1

10.1

Estimate of the common position of the EU and US, which bans Belarusian high-ranking state officials entry because of the Drozdy dispute: 
– the measure is well-founded and correct

7.7

19.8

46.8

– the measure is incorrect and provocative

44.1

28.4

13.5

Should parliamentary elections be held in Belarus in the near future:
– yes

5.1

15.6

38.3

– no

53.8

53.8

16.3

Most trusted public institutions:
– state-run media

70.8

41.8

11.2

– non-state media

6.4

19.6

35.7

– justice

41.1

22.4

6.2

– government

62.6

29.9

6.3

– police

40.2

20.9

7.8

– Supreme Soviet XIII Convocation

19.6

10.8

8.5

What rights are not observed in Belarus?
– freedom of opinion and its expression

9.2

21.7

54.1

– freedom of associations

7.7

13.9

28.8

– freedom of meetings, rallies, marches

7.5

17.6

41.4

What must be done to disliked social groups?
– ban their activities

52.4

41.0

32.6

– let them function in accordance with law

53.8

53.8

16.3

Support “Charter-97”

1.3

6.4

18.9

The president’s adherents and opponents appear to have virtually nothing in common – it appears as though two absolutely differing sets of people populate the country. They are united by one thing only, and that is poverty (see Table 4).

Table 4. Economic values of the Belarusian electorate (% of the group)

Economic values

Lukashenko’s supporters

All respondents

Lukashenko’s opponents

Prefer with type of economy:
– market economy regulated by the state

16.5

35.2

62.3

– administrative economy

32.3

22.8

11.5

The reason underlying the currency crisis in Belarus is:
– a conspiracy of Russian banks and politicians, affiliated with them

50.4

31.9

20.1

– wrong policy of the Belarusian authorities

34.4

54.7

71.7

Did the well-being of the respondent’s household improve in 1997-1998, following the growth of the GDP:
– yes

23.0

11.3

4.5

– no

76.7

88.5

95.5

Opinion of retail traders’ strikes:
– they earn a lot and therefore must share their money with the government

67.4

43.4

14.9

– their rights are violated, which justifies their struggle

31.6

54.9

84.6

Should the state limit people’s incomes:
– yes

34.9

20.0

9.7

– no

43.6

56.7

77.2

Did you have a second job over the last year:
– yes

31.6

41.3

52.9

– no

67.2

57.8

45.9

The analysis of economic values, shared by the Belarusian people, shows that the world-views of the President’s supporters have for the most part ideological and political character, which has but a vague connection with real life. Although, the “Belarusian economic wonder” techniques are now being exported to Russia and the countries of the CIS, most of Lukashenko’s proponents did not see their well-being improve. That means, all the ideological rhetorics and lobbied statistics, which overshadow real life for a considerable part of the Belarusian people, will sooner or later lose their effect on society.