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analitics

READINESS IS NOT PARTICIPATION

The opinion polls, which were organized in recent years, reveal a latent inner tension in the Belarusian society. Around 7.5% of respondents (the figure has not significantly changed over the past few years) took part in public actions to express their opinions, thereby supporting radical actions (Tables 1 and 2). In August 2000, 23.7% of respondents said they were ready to participate in them. Some 6.7% of respondents were ready to participate in armed struggle, which makes more than half a million grown-ups in a country of 10 million. It is understood that readiness to action and actually doing something are different things. Moreover, “armed struggle” is not necessarily a struggle with the regime – it can be aimed against a director, a neighbor or a mother-in-law. However, we wonder what the situation in Belarus would be like, if 10% of half a million (which makes 50 thousand people) begin to act the way that they are ready.
Table 1. Attitude to participation in public action to express opinions, %

Public action
Participated
Ready to participate
Not going to participate
NA
04’00
06’00
08’00
04’00
06’00
08’00
04’00
06’00
08’00
04’00
06’00
08’00
Meeting, rallies, picketing
7.0
4.8
6.3
12.8
12.9
17.1
54.7
64.9
61.3
22.8
17.4
15.3
Strikes
1.9
1.2
2.1
11.5
13.1
14.4
64.0
69.4
67.3
22.6
16.3
16.2
Hunger strikes
0.3
0.2
1.0
3.8
3.4
5.1
75.7
81.1
79.8
20.1
15.3
14.1
Armed struggle
0.4
0.6
1.1
6.0
5.1
6.7
73.0
78.8
76.6
20.6
15.5
15.5

Table 2. Structure of the electorate by attitude to radical action, %

Table 3. Attitude to radical action depending on attitude to the need to meet the conditions of the opposition and the OSCE, %

Social types
Attitude to radical action
Supporters of radical action (9.2)
Hesitate (7.2)
Opponents of radical action (83.5)
Think the conditions must be met (34.6)
15.6
4.7
79.7
Hesitate/NA (61.3)
5.9
8.8
85.3
Think the conditions must not be met (4.1)
5.7
4.2
90.1

* The table is read horizontally. For instance 15.6% of the respondents, who believe that the conditions set forth by the opposition and the OSCE are proponents of radical action

Nevertheless, the voiced supporters of the conditions of the opposition and the OSCE are pessimistic about radical actions (Table 3), showing no difference from the opponents or the hesitant. What it really means, is that people, who support good conditions for the elections, see no point in erecting barricades. Considering this, there is very little hope that the supporters of the conditions of the opposition and the OSCE will take part in the next “Freedom March” or join a strike.