1. Integration and “integrators”
According to the results of the survey, the overwhelming majority of opinion leaders does not support the unification of Russia and Belarus. Only 14% of them were ready to vote in favor of it in a hypothetical referendum. However, more than 25% of representatives of government structures support unification, compared to less than 6% respondents from the non-state sector (Table 1).
Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question: “If a referendum on the unification of Russia and Belarus were held today, how would you vote?”*, %
| Answer |
Survey of opinion leaders
|
Nation-wide poll
|
||
|
total
|
who represented
|
|||
|
non government structures
|
government agencies
|
|||
| Against unification |
77.2
|
88.2
|
60.9
|
27.1
|
| For unification |
14.0
|
5.9
|
26.1
|
53.8
|
| I would not vote |
7.0
|
5.9
|
8.7
|
14.6
|
* In this and the following tables, adding the figures in columns may not give you 100%, because “I do not know” and “No answer” lines were dropped
Opinion leaders gave a similar answer to the question about the best variant of relations between Russia and Belarus: 77.2% preferred friendly relations of independent countries, and only 3.5% supported unification (Table 2).
Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question: “Which future for the relations of Russia and Belarus do you think is best?”, %
| Answer |
Survey of opinion leaders
|
Nation-wide poll
|
||
|
total
|
who represented
|
|||
|
non government structures
|
government agencies
|
|||
| Friendly relations of two independent states |
77.2
|
88.2
|
60.9
|
36.3
|
| A union of independent states |
17.5
|
8.8
|
30.4
|
38.2
|
| Merger into one country |
3.5
|
2.9
|
4.3
|
23.0
|
If we compare Tables 1 and 2, we may see that there is an irregularity in the answers: 14% were going to vote in favor of unification in a referendum, but only 3.5% saw it as the best variant of relations of the two countries. Apparently, this irregularity can be attributed to the fact that some leaders do not think that unification is best but prefer it for some reasons.
We can make a guess that there is financial background behind some of these reasons: if the two countries unite, some government officials plan to improve their well-being by moving to work for the union administration, where salaries would be higher.
Representatives of non-state sector, on the contrary, see no positive sides to the unification. One of the reasons is that after the unification the competition between the government and non-government organizations, which is urgent now, may get even stronger.
The society at large, however, has a different point of view. Only 27.1% of respondents said that they were going to vote against unification in a hypothetical referendum, and 53.8% said that they would vote for it. At the same time, only 23% of respondents said that unification was the best variant of relations of the two countries. We may guess that although Belarusians would not like their country to lose independence, they are discontent with their present life. If living standards in this country were getting better, there would be even fewer proponents of the unification. The conclusion is simple: if the authorities want to make all Belarusians like their country to become part of Russia, they should make living standards in Belarus as low as possible.
2. Opinion leaders and parliamentary elections
According to Table 3, opinion leaders are generally more pessimistic about participation in the forthcoming parliamentary elections than Belarusians at large. As many as 36.8% of opinion leaders said that they were not going to participate in the voting, but only 15.7% participants in the national poll shared their view.
Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question: “Are you going to vote in the forthcoming parliamentary elections?”, %
| Answer |
Survey of opinion leaders
|
Nation-wide poll
|
||
|
total
|
who represented
|
|||
|
non government structures
|
government agencies
|
|||
| Yes, I will go and cast my vote |
31.6
|
17.6
|
52.2
|
59.0
|
| My decision will depend on the political situation during the election race |
28.1
|
32.4
|
21.7
|
11.8
|
| No, I will not vote |
36.8
|
47.1
|
21.7
|
15.7
|
However, in this question the views of opinion leaders are largely influenced by the sector, which they represent. Three times as many leaders who represent government-controlled structures are going to vote, as their colleagues from the non-government sector. 50% more opinion leaders from the non-government center did not make any decision yet, than leaders from state-controlled structures. On the whole, the officials’ opinion is almost in line with the views of the general public.
According to the results of the survey, the views of opinion leaders significantly fluctuate depending on the conditions for future elections. If the authorities do not meet the conditions of the opposition and the OSCE, the share of leaders, who will not vote, will increase by almost 40%, and the increase does not vary by the sector that they represent.
A possibility that the international community would not recognize the results of the elections has an even bigger influence on opinion leaders’ readiness to participate in the elections. In this case almost 58% opinion leaders are not going to take part in the voting. However, in this case their opinions largely depend on their sector: 76.5% of non-government sector opinion leaders and only 30.4% leaders from the state-controlled sector said they were not going to vote in this case.
As for the Belarusian population at large, these conditions also affect respondents’ opinions, increasing the share of those, who are not going to vote by 50-60%. However, their absolute number is insignificant and does not exceed 25% of all respondents.
The survey showed that the boycott of parliamentary elections, which was launched by the major opposition parties, is not supported by almost 50% of respondents. Only 10% supported it and some 40% gave no answer. The preferences of opinion leaders make a big difference. Around 33% of respondents support the boycott and roughly the same number dislikes the idea. However, the share of supporters and opponents of the boycott varies by sector. Some 48.5% of respondents from non-government structures and only 17.5% from state-controlled structures are supporters of the campaign.
Differences in political preferences of representatives of state and non-state structures are also revealed in other issues. No one in the non-state sector is going to vote for A. Lukashenko or other representatives of the authorities, but in the state sector such people make 26.1% of the total. 23.5% of the first group would vote for single candidates of the opposition forces, compared to 17.4% of the second group.
Opinion leaders from non-government structures realize a lot better than respondents from the state sector, that candidates who aspire for parliamentary seats may be independent only before the elections. After candidates are elected members of parliament, many of them immediately begin supporting the regime, because they are either scared of oppression or bribed. Therefore only 29.4% of representatives of the non-government sector are willing to vote for independent candidates, compared to 43.5% of respondents from the second group. Nevertheless, more than 50% of opinion leaders said that they would vote for opposition and independent candidates, and less than 11% – for proponents of the current regime (Table 4).
Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question: “What candidates are you going to support during the forthcoming elections?”, %
| Answer |
Survey of opinion leaders
|
Nation-wide poll
|
||
|
total
|
who represented
|
|||
|
non government structures
|
government agencies
|
|||
| Independent candidates |
35.1
|
29.4
|
43.5
|
25.7
|
| Single candidates of the opposition |
21.1
|
23.5
|
17.4
|
8.9
|
| Candidates who support A. Lukashenko |
7.0
|
0
|
17.4
|
33.6
|
| Representatives of other political parties |
3.5
|
2.9
|
4.3
|
4.3
|
| Other candidates who represent the authorities |
3.5
|
0
|
8.7
|
4.2
|
| Other candidates |
3.5
|
2.9
|
4.3
|
1.6
|
The distribution of preferences in the national poll is somewhat different: 34.6% of respondents said that they would vote for opposition and independent candidates, and 37.8% – for candidates who support the current political regime. Therefore, it is clear that the regime no longer has a significant electoral advantage in Belarus.
However, according to Table 5, people do not realize it yet. The majority of respondents are certain that the electorate will support the powers during the elections (61.9%), while only 23.2% of respondents forecast a victory for the opposition and independent candidates. Undoubtedly, this thinking is also characteristic of opinion leaders, but to a much lesser extent. Only 52.8% opinion leaders spoke in support of “official” candidates, and 44.2% backed independent candidates and the opposition. However, the general results of the survey among opinion leaders do not show major differences in their views, by the sector that they represent. Leaders from non-government structures are sure that official candidates will get less support than independent and opposition candidates (44.2% and 53.5% answers respectively), while leaders from the state sector share the opposite view (65.5% and 26.9%). So, the optimism of the non-government sector is compensated by the pessimism of leaders from the state sector.
Table 5. Distribution of answers to the question: “For whom will the majority of Belarusians vote during the forthcoming parliamentary elections, in your opinion?”, %
| Answer |
Survey of opinion leaders
|
Nation-wide poll
|
||
|
total
|
who represented
|
|||
|
non government structures
|
government agencies
|
|||
| Independent candidates |
33.8
|
39.6
|
23.1
|
16.8
|
| Candidates who support A. Lukashenko |
30.8
|
25.6
|
38.5
|
56.1
|
| Other candidates who represent the authorities |
22.0
|
18.6
|
27.0
|
5.8
|
| Single candidates of the opposition |
10.4
|
13.9
|
3.8
|
6.4
|
| Representatives of other political parties |
1.5
|
2.3
|
3.8
|
3.3
|
| Other candidates |
1.5
|
–
|
3.8
|
1.2
|
| I do not know/NA |
–
|
–
|
–
|
10.4
|
| Total: |
100.0
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
* The results were equalized to make 100%, because respondents could give more than one answer
Compared to the nation at large, opinion leaders have a much better understanding of the meaning of political parties in social life and are better informed about them and their activities. Most respondents to the national poll know nothing certain about them (81.1%), but fewer leaders said that they did – 57.6% (Table 6).
According to the results of the national opinion poll the first two places are occupied by the women’s party “Nadzeya” and the United Civic Party, whose ratings are very low (they do not exceed the margin of error). The Belarusian Social Democratic Union and the association “Yabloko” share the next two positions. The ratings of other parties are even lower.
Table 6. Distribution of answers to the question: “If you are doing to vote for party candidates, which party are you going to support?”, %
| Answer |
Survey of opinion leaders
|
Nation-wide poll
|
||
|
total
|
who represented
|
|||
|
non government structures
|
government agencies
|
|||
| United Civic Party (A. Lebedko) |
21.1
|
20.6
|
21.7
|
2.1
|
| Party BPF (V. Vecherko) |
5.3
|
5.9
|
4.3
|
1.1
|
| Labor party (A. Bukhvostov) |
5.3
|
8.8
|
–
|
0.6
|
| Communist party of Belarus (V. Chikin) |
3.5
|
–
|
8.7
|
1.2
|
| Belarusian Social Democratic party “Narodnaya Hramada” (N. Statkevich) |
1.8
|
2.9
|
–
|
1.1
|
| Belarusian Social-democratic Union (S. Shushkevich) |
1.8
|
–
|
4.3
|
1.8
|
| Conservative Christian party BPF (Z. Paznyak) |
1.8
|
2.9
|
–
|
1.5
|
| Liberal Democratic party (S. Gaidukevich) |
1.8
|
–
|
4.3
|
1.2
|
| Women’s party “Nadzeya” (V. Polevikova) |
–
|
–
|
–
|
2.9
|
| Belarusian association “Yabloko” (O. Abramova) |
–
|
–
|
–
|
1.8
|
| Belarusian party of communists (S. Kalyakin) |
–
|
–
|
–
|
1.1
|
| Other party |
–
|
–
|
–
|
2.5
|
| I do not know/NA |
57.6
|
58.9
|
56.7
|
81.1
|
Opinion leaders share very different preferences. They gave the United Civic Party the highest rating; more than 20% of respondents irrespective of the sector they represent spoke in its support. The party BPF and the Labor Party shared the second and third place, but only some 5% of respondents mentioned them. However, V. Vecherko’s party (BPF) has equal support from both sectors, but only non-state sector representatives mentioned Bukhvostov’s party. A fact deserves special mention that representatives of the state sector showed support for the pro-presidential Communist Party of Belarus, making it stand fourth in the rating. The support for other parties was insignificant.
So, political parties are still largely unpopular among the general public. Opinion leaders rate them higher, but still not high enough to have a decisive say in public opinions in the near future. The efforts to change the situation made by political parties themselves are presumably insufficient.
Respondents’ answers show, that the general public and opinion leaders share equal (around 60%) interest in the choice of future members of parliament. However, less than 40% of opinion leaders from the state sector have this interest, but in the non-government sector it is shared by a percentage of respondents, which is almost twice as high (73.5%). This is yet another indicator of the fact that employees of the government-controlled sector are passive, because they fear oppression more than their colleagues from the non-state sector.
Most respondents were certain that observers should be present at polling stations during the voting. Only 2.8% of opinion leaders, and 9.0% of the general public shared the opposite view. Both the leaders and the public liked independent observers best. However, 65% of opinion leaders said they wanted other observers to watch the voting process, but only 34.7% of respondents during the national poll said that they did. There is no substantial difference in views of opinion leaders from different sectors at the problem of observing elections. However, leaders from the state sector gave more than three times as many answers, saying that observers are not needed at all.
Only an insignificant part of respondents said that candidates had equal opportunities during the election race. During the leaders’ poll, only representatives of state structures mentioned that answer (30.4%). Almost all leaders, who represent non-government structures (97.1%) and almost half of their colleagues from the other group (47.8%) have a contrary point of view, which is also shared by almost 40% of respondents during the national survey.
Therefore, the analysis of the leaders’ poll shows that they have more radical views about their participation or non-participation in the elections, than the general public. They also have less support for candidates, who support the present regime. Among the opinion leaders, those from non-government structures are better oriented on introducing changes to our life, but even “official” leaders want them to happen a lot more than the general public.
This allows us to make an assumption that if more work is done for the government sector, and if they were relieved of fear of imminent oppression (court cases, firings etc.), the opposition may count on their support.
3. Leaders and presidential elections
The September survey has shown that M. Chigir topped the rating made by opinion leaders (he was mentioned by 21.1%), when they were answering an open question about a possible future president for Belarus. In the national poll, A. Lukashenko was in first place (36.3%). In the opinion leaders’ rating, A. Lukashenko was second (10.5%), amd was mentioned mostly by representatives of state structures (Table 7). The general public gave the second and third place to M. Chigir and S. Shushkevich, who tremendously lose in popularity to A. Lukashenko (their ratings are equal and do not exceed the margin of error).
Table 7. Distribution of answers to the question: “If the presidential elections were tomorrow, for whom would you vote?”, %
| Answer |
Survey of opinion leaders
|
Nation-wide poll
|
||
|
total
|
who represented
|
|||
|
non government structures
|
government agencies
|
|||
| M. Chigir |
21.1
|
26.5
|
13.0
|
2.4
|
| A. Lukashenko |
10.5
|
–
|
26.1
|
36.3
|
| S. Domash |
7.0
|
8.8
|
4.3
|
–
|
| A. Lebedko |
3.5
|
2.9
|
4.3
|
0.8
|
| V. Polevikova |
3.5
|
5.9
|
–
|
0.8
|
| V. Yermoshin |
3.5
|
2.9
|
4.3
|
0.5
|
| S. Shushkevich |
3.5
|
5.9
|
–
|
2.4
|
| V. Putin |
–
|
–
|
–
|
2.1
|
It is interesting that despite the sector represented by opinion leaders, the top of the list includes the same opposition politicians (M. Chigir, S. Domash and A. Lebedko). Leaders from both groups mentioned V. Yermoshin, which deserves attention. Apart from that, the views from different sectors are very different.
Table 8 shows answers to a multiple choice question concerning respondents’ readiness to vote for celebrity Belarusian politicians from an enclosed list, in which A. Lukashenko was not included. Those who wanted could write a name in an empty line. It is interesting that once a list of other politicians was offered, the number of A. Lukashenko’s convinced supporters among opinion leaders from state structures went down from 26.1% to 17.4%!
Table 8. Distribution of answers to the question: “For which real Belarusian celebrity politician would you vote in the presidential elections?”, %
| Answer |
Survey of opinion leaders
|
Nation-wide poll
|
||
|
total
|
who represented
|
|||
|
non government structures
|
government agencies
|
|||
| M. Chigir |
26.3
|
29.4
|
21.7
|
5.7
|
| A. Lebedko |
7.0
|
5.9
|
8.7
|
1.5
|
| A. Lukashenko |
7.0
|
–
|
17.4
|
14.8
|
| S. Domash |
7.0
|
8.8
|
4.3
|
0.4
|
| S. Shushkevich |
5.3
|
5.9
|
4.3
|
6.4
|
| A. Bukhvostov |
3.5
|
5.9
|
–
|
0.5
|
| S. Gaidukevich |
3.5
|
5.9
|
–
|
1.3
|
| V. Polevikova |
3.5
|
5.9
|
–
|
3.1
|
| Z. Paznyak |
–
|
–
|
–
|
2.7
|
Among the general public, A. Lukashenko’s rating went down almost 2.5 fold (from 36.3% to 14.8%). The rating of M. Chigir, S. Shushkevich and other politicians, on the contrary, went up. Therefore, when we try to define the public’s political preferences, candidates’ “promotion” has a decisive impact: the public remembers politicians only when it hears about them, or sees their names on a list, as it was in this case.
According to the results of the poll, most opinion leaders would like to see a single candidate of the democratic opposition or an independent candidate as Belarus’ future president (together the two figures make 70.1%). The sum in the non-government sector is even higher – 79.4%. Around 20% of opinion leaders from state structures prefer A. Lukashenko (these must be his ideological supporters), but 56.5% would support an opposition politician or an independent candidate.
However, among the general public, A. Lukashenko has the highest rating (37.4%). An independent candidate is in second place, missing only 7.5% to the winner, which is less than the number of voices given for an opposition candidate (9.9%). That means, that if the supporters of the opposition and an independent candidate consolidate during the second round of elections (and all other conditions remain the same), A. Lukashenko may lose it!
Table 9 shows what people want their future president to be. It is clear that this vision makes a big difference from the real character of A. Lukashenko. A comparison of his rating and the preferences from Table 9 shows that his supporters know little about A. Lukashenko, but rather envision an illusory character created by state-controlled media (primarily the Belarusian television). 49% of respondents to the national poll (and 84.2% of opinion leaders) would rather have a proponent of drastic changes to the present political course, while only 32.6% (7.0% of opinion leaders) would like a new president to follow in A. Lukashenko’s footsteps. 41.1% of people (86.0% of opinion leaders) would like a new president to support the segregation of powers, and 54.0% would like him to support a market economy (vs. 89.5% of opinion leaders). An apologist of integration with Russia would be supported by 44.7% of people (and 14.0% of opinion leaders), and a defender of Belarus’ independence – by 37.5% (78.9% of opinion leaders).
Table 9. Distribution of answers to the question: “What should Belarus’ future president be like?”, %
| Answer |
Survey of opinion leaders
|
Nation-wide poll
|
||
|
total
|
who represented
|
|||
|
non government structures
|
government agencies
|
|||
| He should continue the current political course He should change the current political course It does not matter |
7.0
84.2 1.8 |
–
100.0 – |
17.4
60.9 4.3 |
32.6
49.0 15.3 |
| He should advocate the distribution of powers He should advocate the accumulation of power by the president It does not matter |
86.0
7.0 1.8 |
100.0
– – |
65.2
17.4 4.3 |
41.1
34.0 21.5 |
| He should advocate Belarus’ independence He should stand for unification with Russia It does not matter |
78.9
14.0 5.3 |
91.2
5.9 2.9 |
60.9
26.1 8.7 |
37.5
44.7 15.4 |
| He should be younger or 45 years of age He should be older than 45 It does not matter |
7.0
42.1 49.1 |
5.9
38.2 55.9 |
8.7
47.8 39.1 |
27.7
18.3 52.6 |
| He should support market economy He should support administrative economy It does not matter |
89.5
1.8 3.5 |
100.0
– – |
73.9
4.3 8.7 |
54.0
24.1 19.1 |
| He should advocate integration into Europe He should stand for closer integration within the CIS It does not matter |
77.2
10.5 10.5 |
88.2
2.9 8.8 |
60.9
21.7 13.0 |
–*
|
* These answers were not included in the questionnaire
Table 10. Distribution of answers to the question: “For whom will the majority of Belarusians vote during the forthcoming presidential elections, in your opinion?”, %
| Answer |
Survey of opinion leaders
|
Nation-wide poll
|
||
|
total
|
who represented
|
|||
|
non-government structures
|
government agencies
|
|||
| Independent candidate |
35.5
|
44.5
|
23.1
|
15.1
|
| A. Lukashenko |
33.8
|
19.5
|
53.9
|
61.6
|
| Single candidate of the democratic opposition |
17.7
|
22.2
|
11.5
|
4.9
|
| Candidate who represents a different political party |
4.9
|
2.6
|
7.7
|
2.9
|
| Other candidate who represents the authorities |
4.9
|
5.6
|
3.8
|
4.8
|
| Other candidate |
3.2
|
5.6
|
–
|
0.6
|
| I do not know/NA |
–
|
–
|
–
|
10.1
|
Table 10 shows that a vast majority of respondents (61.6%) are certain that the nation will back A. Lukashenko during the elections, although the information in the table indicate that it will not. Opinion leaders from state structures share the same way of thinking, although in their opinion an opposition or independent candidate is going to get as much as 35% of voices. On the whole, the opinion leaders’ forecast is that the opposition and independent candidates will manage to collect 53.2% of ballot sheets in their support, and A. Lukashenko – only 33.8%. This information is quite close to all respondents’ answers about their preferences concerning the future president of Belarus. Therefore it makes sense to believe opinion leaders. And not only believe their opinion about this question.