HOW TO MAKE CHANGES HAPPEN?

The answer to this question largely depends on respondents’ political views. Table 1 shows that the number of respondents who think that the four conditions of the opposition and the OSCE should be observed is on a stable high level and exceeds the number of their opponents fivefold. However, the support of these conditions itself does not imply any actions. This argument is illustrated by the fact that radical actions enjoy little support in society. On the whole, the negative approach to radical actions is shared by different social groups, which are dissimilar in their attitude to the conditions of the OSCE (Table 2). I.e. both the supporters and opponents of the OSCE conditions are fairly pessimistic about radical actions.
Table 1. Structure of the electorate, depending on people’s attitudes to the four conditions set by the opposition and the OSCE, %*

Convinced supporters are respondents who said that they supported all conditions of the opposition and the OSCE. Voiced opponents were against all those conditions

Table 2. Attitude to radical actions, depending on people’s attitudes to the four conditions set by the opposition and the OSCE*, %

Social types	Attitude to radical actions
Social types	Supporters of radical actions (21.2)	Opponents of radical actions (89.9)
Supporters of the conditions of the opposition and the OSCE (33.2)	32.7	84.8
Hesitate (60.3)	16.6	91.8
Opponents of the conditions of the opposition and the OSCE (6.5)	5.2	97.9

* The table should be read horizontally

The number of supporters of the boycott of parliamentary elections went down a little (Table 3). It is not impossible that this situation may change because of opposition actions in the framework of the campaign “Boycott-2000”. The decrease, and the growth in numbers of the boycott opponents may be attributed to the official propaganda campaign in support of the elections, which was mentioned before.

Table 3. Attitudes of the boycott of the parliamentary elections, launched by the opposition, %

With reference to the latest developments in Yugoslavia, voices are heard that a similar scenario may be played in Belarus. The data in Table 4 give an indirect answer to the question, whether this is possible. Currently, almost 50% of the supporters of the boycott the majority of whom are convinced oppositionists, let alone other groups, think that if the powers do not satisfy people’s demands they should be replaced by traditional methods – by elections, or a referendum concerning nonconfidence to the regime and early elections. Only 30.2% of the boycott supporters said that any means might be used, which will allow to achieve the goal.

Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question: “If the power do not satisfy people, by what way they should be replaced?”, %

More than 66% of those who are hesitant about the boycott said that they preferred the evolution variant, i.e. elections, or a referendum on nonconfidence and early elections.

Table 5. Distribution of answers to the question: “If the 2000 parliamentary elections do not take place, or their results are not recognized by the international community, are you ready to defend your interests through participation in meetings, rallies, marches and other protests?”, %

At last, let us talk about the close perspective. There is an opinion that if people cannot protect their interests by elections, they prefer the strategies of “street democracy”. In real life, this is not so. If elections fail or their results are not recognized by the international community, only 12% of convinced supporters of the OSCE conditions said that were ready to participate in mass protests (Table 5), while almost four times as many people in this group had a contrary view. Around 70% of the largest group of respondents, who still hesitated (60.3%) said that they were not going to participate in meetings and rallies. Therefore, it is now unwise to count that many people will participate in street protests.