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analitics

ELECTIONS-2000 ARE IMMINENT

The results of the nation-wide survey clearly show that the August downward trend in readiness to participate in the elections stopped. The previous trend is back, because people who had hesitated whtether or not to participate in the elections decided that they should cast their votes. The number of supporters of the election boycott went down. Although it is still not possible to forecast how many people will take part in the voting because a large number of them still hesitates, we may assume that the elections will most likely be deemed valid (Table 1-6).
Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question: “In autumn 2000 Belarus will see parliamentary elections. Are you going to cast your vote?”, %

Answer
04’00
06’00
07’00
08’00
09’00
1. Will participate in the voting
52.9
59.7
65.9
53.7
59.0
2. Will decide whether or not to take part in the voting depending on the political situation during the election race
15.0
16.9
18.4
15.4
11.8
3. Will not participate in the voting
10.3
11.0
10.1
12.2
15.7
4. Do not know
21.8
12.4
5.6
18.7
13.5

Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question: “If the authorities fail to meet the conditions, set by the opposition and the OSCE, will you participate in the autumn parliamentary elections-2000?”, %


Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question: “If the opposition decides to boycott the parliamentary elections because the authorities failed to meet the conditions of the opposition and the OSCE, what would be your attitude to that boycott?”, %

Answer
07’00
08’00
09’00
1. I will not support the boycott, because I think that one must participate in elections, whatever the situation
50.5
42.3
47.3
2. I will support the boycott
11.7
13.7
10.4
3. NA
37.8
44.0
42.2

Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question: “If the international community refuses to recognize the results of the elections before the voting day, merely because the conditions of the opposition and the OSCE were not met, will you participate in the voting?”, %


Table 5. Dynamics of electorate structure depending on attitudes to parliamentary elections-2000, %


Table 6. Attitude to participation in parliamentary elections depending on attitude to A. Lukashenko and the integration with Russia*, %

Social types
Attitude to parliamentary elections-2000
Convinced supporters (30.0)
Hesitant majority (66.5)
Voiced opponents (3.5)
Attitude to A. Lukashenko
Convinced supporters (16.0)
55.9
44.1
0.0
Hesitant majority (55.0)
31.2
67.9
0.9
Voiced opponents (29.0)
13.5
75.9
10.6
Attitude to integration
Convinced supporters (20.9)
43.7
55.7
0.6
Hesitant majority (60.4)
29.8
68.2
2.0
Voiced opponents (18.7)
15.5
72.7
11.8

* The table should be read horizontally

The reasons behind these changes are clear. We have already talked about them earlier. First, the authorities have embarked on a large-scale campaign in support of the elections (which did not yet begin in August). Second, the factions in the opposition over the participation in the parliamentary elections made media stories (not only in government-controlled, but also in non-government media). This obviously has a negative influence on the image of the opposition and its strategies, as seen by people who make its electoral basis (i.e. who are discontent with the current political course).
Now it is already high time we thought about strategies of action after the elections, primarily because preparations for the presidential race must be made. Considering that the parliamentary elections will most likely be deemed valid, the resources of the opposition should be concentrated on gathering and analyzing witnesses of breaches of procedure (during all stages of the election process). This information may provide the international community with reasons to refuse to recognize their results (in this respect the strategy of “total boycott” is hardly efficient). In this future campaign the maximum extent of consolidation of the opposition actions must be attained. The campaign should be advertised to the wide public as “consolidated and concerted”, but not as the “best way to go”. We also need to consider the real, rather than desired, situation in society.