The authorities claim that their politics stay the same because they enjoy wide support of the population. However, the survey results, for instance, show us that the Belarusian society is seriously discontent with the course taken by the regime. We should not plainly maintain that the protesting electorate exists. It is made up almost 50% of the population. Therefore, one of the major issues, which faces the democratic forces today is how to make use of this situation, which is favorable for introducing change, most efficiently. It is understood that the traditional and habitual forms of activities for the opposition (mass protests the way they are organized now) do not fit the purpose (Table 1). The fact that people are discontent does not automatically mean that this dissatisfaction can be realized through street democracy. Remarkably, if we compare the results of the latest two “Freedom Marches” with the previous actions, we will see that fewer voters support them or oppose to them. However, there are many more people now, who never heard of them, despite all propaganda and counter-propaganda.
Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question: “What is your opinion about mass opposition actions?”, %
* This option was not included in that questionnaire
** In this survey, there was an answer “I do not know” in place of this line
The Belarusian society at large still prefers traditional methods of replacing authorities (though elections and referenda), although, to be precise, the number of people who said that all means can go is also on an increase (Table 2). A bigger number of supporters of radical actions also indicates this (Table 3).
Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question: “If the power do not satisfy people, by what way they should be replaced?”, %
Table 3. Dynamics of the number of supporters of radical actions, %
* Supporters of radical actions are those respondents, who have participated or are ready to take part in such mass actions of protest as meetings, demonstrations, strikes, hunger strikes, or armed struggle. Opponents of radical actions are those, who are not going to participate in none of the mentioned actions of protest. The total sum exceeds 100 percent because the allocated types are partially crossed
What does the protesting electorate think, what ways to change the current situation does it see? Table 4 shows that radical actions are unpopular with people, who do not want A. Lukashenko to be president of Belarus for another term – they are either rejected altogether (25.1%), or seen as unfit in the current circumstances (35.4%). Notably, people who want A. Lukashenko to be president of Belarus for the second term and those, who do not want it to happen share almost the same views regarding the use of all kinds of actions, which would allow to replace the regime (Table 5). 34.8% of respondents, who are against A. Lukashenko’s becoming Belarusian president again think that the powers should be replaced by elections.
Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question: “If you are not going to participate in public protests, why are you not?”
Table 5. The way to replace the powers, which do not satisfy people, depending on attitude to A. Lukashenko’s being president of Belarus for another term*, %
The data in Table 6 also indicate that the protesting electorate prefers traditional democratic mechanisms to replace the powers. Almost 50% of those, who took part in the second round of the parliamentary elections want A. Lukashenko to serve as Belarusian president for the second term vs. 33.5% of those who do not want that to happen. The attitude shared by the protesting electorate regarding the boycott of the parliamentary elections is also interesting (Table 7). Only around 15% of them think that the boycott was successful, and 39.2% share a contrary view.
Table 6. Attitude to A. Lukashenko’s being president of Belarus for another term, depending on participation in the second round of elections, %
Table 7. Attitude to the boycott of parliamentary elections, depending on attitude to A. Lukashenko’s being president of Belarus for another term*, %
* The table should be read horizontally
According to Table 8, the overwhelming majority of opinion leaders (more than 75%) agree with the statement of the opposition and the OSCE technical mission, that the autumn 2000 parliamentary elections were not democratic. This conclusion is supported by leaders from non-government structures to the most extent, and by leaders from government structures – to the least extent. However, even among the latter there are three times as many supporters of this view, as there are opponents.
Table 8. Distribution of answers to the question: “After the first round of parliamentary elections the opposition and the OSCE technical mission said that the elections were not democratic, because they did not fit the standards of “free and fair elections”. Do you agree?”, %
| Answer |
Survey of opinion leaders
|
Nation-wide poll
|
|
total
|
who represented
|
|
non government structures
|
government agencies
|
| Yes, I agree. The elections were not democratic |
77.4
|
93.5
|
54.5
|
23.3
|
| No, I do not agree. The elections were democratic |
7.5
|
6.5
|
18.2
|
28.0
|
| I do not know/NA |
15.1
|
–
|
27.3
|
48.7
|
Table 9. Choice of president, depending on attitude to A. Lukashenko’s being president of Belarus for another term, %
Today, the protest moods are primarily spontaneous and non-constructive. Many Belarusians are dissatisfied with the current regime, but they do not feel that the opposition is a good alternative. We think that to make use of this situation, a candidate must not be connected with the opposition directly. Table 9 also confirms this statement – there are twice as many supporters of an independent candidate than proponents of a single candidate of the democratic opposition among those, who do not want A. Lukashenko to be president of Belarus for the second term.
