RADICALISM ENJOYS NO SUPPORT IN THE SOCIETY

After Yugoslav President S. Milosevic was ousted from office some opposition leaders often say that the Yugoslavian scenario has fair chance to be successful in Belarus. How do such aspirations correspond to the reality? What Belarusian voters think about it? The fact that only 30.5% of convinced opponents of A. Lukashenko positively assessed March of Freedom III is especially revealing (see Table 1). Among the vacillators this figure is fourfold lower – 7.7%. Just compare – one fourth of the president’s adversaries and 23.7% of the vacillators showed indifference to this action. The above figures prove that street actions staged by the opposition in their present form turned into ritual events. They attract neither representatives of the so called “kitchen opposition” to the side of the ruling regime opponents, nor those who is dissatisfied with the authorities’ policy, but, at the same time, who do not share slogans and methods of the political opposition. On the contrary, they make the social base of the regime’s adversaries even narrower.
Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question: “What is your attitude to the opposition rally “Freedom March 3″, which took place on November 1, 2000”, %

Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question: “In your opinion, who participates in street actions, organized by the opposition”, %

In this respect, answers to the question “Who participate in the mass protest actions staged by the opposition?” are quite instructive (see Table 2). It is quite clear that in the eyes of staunch “lukashists” participants of such actions – are those who receive money from the West (41.6%), criminal elements (32.6%), and foreign intelligence spies (18.3%). However, an unflattering characteristic given to participants of such mass actions by the vacillatory (“these are those who live on money from the West” – 28.7%, “criminal elements” – 18.7% and “foreign agents” – 9.9%) is a disturbing signal to their organizers and ideologists. Because the vacillatory majority – is “no one’s” electorate that the opposition shall struggle for.

Now we should see which model of power shift Belarusians consider optimal. The situation remains the same. Obvious preference is given to traditional methods, i.e. – by means of election (41.6% of all voters and 58.4% of the vacillatory) and by means of a referendum about distrust to authorities with subsequent election (28.8%). Less respondents opted for a radical method, i.e. using all means to achieve the goal (see Table 3). Even among convinced opponents of A. Lukashenko, who are the strong electorates of the opposition, only one fourth is ready to resort to any means. At the same time, A. Lukashenko’s opponents are prone to choose an evolution scenario, when the election mechanism is applied.

Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question: “If the power do not satisfy people, by what way they should be replaced?”, %

Answer	09’00	10’00
Answer	09’00	All respondents	A. Lukashenko’s supporters (15.4)	A. Lukashenko’s opponents (31.3)	Hesitate (53.3)
By ordinary elections	48.6	41.6	57.3	34.0	58.4
By a referendum concerning nonconfidence to the present power and early election	24.6	28.8	18.3	29.4	31.4
By any means, which will allow to achieve the purpose	14.6	19.5	9.9	25.8	18.6
By appeals to government agencies, demanding their resignation	5.7	12.8	13.6	13.7	12.1
By mass non-violence actions (meetings, demonstrations)	3.4	6.2	1.0	11.1	4.7
By massive strikes	1.5	4.5	1.0	9.2	2.8
By other ways	1.6	1.7	2.6	1.8	1.3

Table 4. Attitude to radical actions depending on attitude to A. Lukashenko, %

To put it fair we shall note that the number of those who support radical actions has dropped a little as compared to the September survey. As a whole, as was the case earlier, radicalism enjoys no support in the Belarusian society. Its aversion has no links to ideological views of voters. Among convinced adversaries of the head of state, as well as among his supporters, the number of opponents of radical actions is basically the same (see Table 4). In both cases it amounts to 90% and leaves no chances to followers of the revolutionary scenario to overthrow the regime by means of mass street actions. The above statement does not mean that it is necessary to abandon such actions at all. Not at all. Street actions – as a means of exerting pressure upon the authorities, as an indicator of the opposition’s support among a great part of the society, and finally, as an evidence of the opposition’s ability to use this support, might be and should be used. However, they should be considered as one, but not the only one, of the most efficient means to struggle against the regime. And if it is applied, it should be done so that no one could doubt its goals and efficiency. An optimal choice would be to use mass actions as a weighty argument during the transition to an election scenario with maximum advantages to the opposition. It is worth mentioning that March of Freedom I was staged under the motto “For a free and fair election”.