During a national poll, less than 50% of respondents could give a definite answer to this question. This was not only caused by a tradition to believe the official point of view, advocated in the most easily accessible mass media, but also by general indifference towards parliamentarism and democracy as a whole. The group, which disagreed with the view of the opposition and the technical mission of the OSCE (28.0%), is dominated by A. Lukashenko’s convinced supporters.
Table 1 shows that leaders are divided into two almost equal groups in assessing the results of the opposition campaign for the boycott of the parliamentary elections. The negative assessment somewhat prevails, but this mostly happens because this assessment is shared by leaders from the government sector. The opinions of leaders from the non-government sector were fifty-fifty. It is significant that very few leaders refused to give a definite answer to this question. On the contrary, 46.9% of respondents of the national poll failed to express a clear opinion. Among those who answered this question, the negative assessment prevails. So, 45.0% of the general public and 54.6% of leaders from government structures said that the boycott did not work out, which should be considered by the organizers of this campaign when they work for the next election race.
Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question: “A substantial part of the opposition actively boycotted the parliamentary elections, and called on the electorate to ignore the voting. How do you ssess the results of this campaign?”, %
| Answer |
Survey of opinion leaders
|
Nation-wide poll
|
|
total
|
who represented
|
|
non government structures
|
government agencies
|
| The boycott did not work out |
50.9
|
48.4
|
54.6
|
45.0
|
| The boycott was successful |
45.3
|
48.4
|
40.9
|
8.1
|
| I do not know/NA |
3.8
|
3.2
|
4.5
|
46.9
|
According to Table 2, more than half of the leaders (56.6%) support the opposition statistics regarding the share of the electorate, which participated in the voting. Only 9.4% believe the statistics given by the Central election committee. 34.0% did not give a definite answer. The opposition statistics is most actively supported by leaders from non-government sector, who have some connection to observing the voting process at polling stations. As many as 54.5% of leaders from government structures failed to give any definite answer to this question. The majority of those, who answered it, share the opinion of the opposition.
Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question: “According to the Central election committee, 60% of voters participated in the October parliamentary elections. According to the information of the opposition, based on reports from observers, only 40-45% of voters participated in the elections. Which information is correct, in your opinion?”, %
| Answer |
Survey of opinion leaders
|
Nation-wide poll
|
|
total
|
who represented
|
|
non government structures
|
government agencies
|
| The opposition information is true |
56.6
|
77.4
|
27.3
|
12.4
|
| The Central election committee information is correct |
9.4
|
3.2
|
18.2
|
22.6
|
| I do not know/NA |
34.0
|
19.4
|
54.5
|
65.0
|
The share of the general public who did not answer this question is even higher – almost 66%. Among the other 33%, the majority thinks that the Central election committee gave real figures. It is understood that the majority of those who shared this opinion are voiced opponents of the opposition, but we need to bear in mind that by the time when the polling was conducted, the results of an independent sociological research were published, which were very close to the information provided by the Central election committee. Therefore, we may assume that the opposition version was supported by opposition proponents rather than people who adhere to truth.
Table 3 shows that roughly 66% of leaders support the idea to bring down the minimum voter turn up. This point of view is primarily shared by government sector, and in non-government sector there is certain balance between the supporters and opponents of the idea. The majority of the general public (50.2%) does not support this idea, and 36.0% did not give any definite answer.
Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question: “It is known, that elections in Belarus are deemed valid, if more than 50% of voters participate in them. It often results in failures and repeated elections. Do you think that the minimum voter turnout necessary for the elections to be deemed valid, should be lowered?”, %
| Answer |
Survey of opinion leaders
|
Nation-wide poll
|
|
total
|
who represented
|
|
non government structures
|
government agencies
|
| Yes, it should |
66.0
|
54.9
|
81.8
|
13.8
|
| No, the present level is OK |
32.1
|
41.9
|
18.2
|
50.2
|
| I do not know/NA |
1.9
|
3.2
|
–
|
36.0
|
The answers to the question whether all participants in the electoral process must be represented in election committees are also remarkable. According to Table 4, neither the leaders, nor the population at large is satisfied with the existing monopoly of the executive branch to form election committees. Therefore, statements by government officials that the current election laws and practices of voting answer the needs of people, are untrue. We may assume that the members of the present Belarusian “parliament” were guided by orders from the head of state rather than the needs of voters, whose interests they should represent, when they passed the Election code. Even among the general public, there were only 15.2% who said that the current situation with election law and procedures is satisfactory.
Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question: “Many Belarusians do not trust election results, because representatives of the authorities had a decisive voice in election committees. Do you think that representatives of different political forces should also be included in election committees and have a decisive voice there?”, %
| Answer |
Survey of opinion leaders
|
Nation-wide poll
|
|
total
|
who represented
|
|
non government structures
|
government agencies
|
| Yes, it is necessary |
88.6
|
87.1
|
91.0
|
38.2
|
| No, the present practice should be continued |
3.8
|
3.2
|
4.5
|
15.2
|
| I do not know/NA |
7.6
|
9.7
|
4.5
|
46.6
|
Leaders were almost unanimous in stating that the forthcoming presidential elections in Belarus will not be free and fair (Table 5). Their opinion is not only based on imperfections of the current elections law, but also by the experience of parliamentary election campaign, conducted by the authorities, which many of them had a chance to observe.
Table 5. Distribution of answers to the question: “Do you think that the 2001 presidential elections in Belarus will be free and fair?”, %
| Answer |
Survey of opinion leaders
|
Nation-wide poll
|
|
total
|
who represented
|
|
non government structures
|
government agencies
|
| No |
86.8
|
87.1
|
86.4
|
28.0
|
| Yes |
7.5
|
3.2
|
13.6
|
32.2
|
| I do not know/NA |
5.7
|
9.7
|
–
|
39.8
|
Around 40% of the general public did not answer this question. Approximately 33% think that the elections will be free and fair; 28% share the contrary view. The opposition must recruit observers of the forthcoming presidential campaign from the third group.
The analysis of answers given by opinion leaders shows that they are fairly pessimistic about statements that the parliamentary elections were free and fair. They do not trust election committees and are doubtful about the results of the elections announced by the authorities. Many leaders think that the existing election law must be seriously amended. The overwhelming majority of the elite thinks that unless the powers change their ways of organizing election campaigns and amendments are introduced to the Election code, there is little hope that the 2001 presidential elections will be free and fair.
