PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, AS THEY ARE VIEWED BY THE ELITE

A substantial part (41.5%) of the general public would also like to have a new president. However, A. Lukashenko also has lots of supporters – 36.1%. Also, 22.4% of respondents did not make any decision yet. The choice of this part of the electorate may be decisive during the elections. On the whole, we can say that the idea to hold new presidential elections has developed in the Belarusian society and enjoys wide support. Today, A. Lukashenko would hardly be able to extend his term in office without holding an election, as it was back in autumn 1996.

According to Table 2, more than 50% of opinion leaders would like to see an independent candidate as this country’s next president. Their second choice was a single candidate of the democratic opposition. Together these two scored 88.6%, which is 16.4% more than it was in October. It is significant, that the support for a single candidate of the opposition does not vary much by the sector, which opinion leaders represent (he enjoys the support of approximately 33% of respondents, both from the government and non-government sector). However, more leaders from non-government structures said that they would support an independent candidate. We may assume, that the level of their support did depend a lot on candidates’ chances to win. Probably, they are less susceptible to changing moods in society, because it is seen from Table 2 that very few respondents to the national poll are likely to vote for an independent candidate.

We may also see that few leaders have not yet made their mind, but more than 25% of respondents to the national poll still hesitate.

A. Lukashenko is only supported by some leaders from the government structures. The number of his supporters went down by 6.9% compared with October, and by 12.6% (or by 2.4 times) compared with September.

The results of the November poll conducted among opinion leaders indicate a further decrease of ratings of A. Lukashenko and a single candidate of the opposition. At the same time, an independent candidate’s rating is on an increase. The general public also offers wider support for an independent candidate (it increased by 2.3% compared with October), and less support for a single candidate of the opposition (it went down 1.3%). A. Lukashenko’s rating among the general public increased somewhat (by 3.9%), which may be due to his media activities during the parliamentary election race, public criticism of state officials and to the fact that he made two decisions concerning wage increases, one after another. These results confirm our previous conclusion: the strategy of the opposition’s presidential election campaign must be based on the fact, that most people prefer an independent candidate.

The analysis of the results of the national poll confirms our assumptions, made after the October polling: A. Lukashenko is not any longer the only player in the Belarusian political field, although he still has a dominant position. As many as 35.9% would like him to become Belarus’ next president, but 34.4% prefer an independent candidate or a single candidate of the opposition. The difference between these two figures does not exceed the margin of error, and it did not earlier. Let us remind you that in October these indicators were 32.0% and 30.8%, and in September 37.4% and 39.8% respectively. It is seen, that the October gap is filled by people, who previously gave no answer, because the other ratings did not change.

The results of the November poll showed a change of leaders’ views about possible candidates in the forthcoming presidential elections (Table 3). Answering an open-end question about their choice if the elections were held on the next day, the biggest group of leaders mentioned M. Chigir , who scored 11.3%, which is somewhat less than it was in October (14.9%), and a lot less than it was in September (21.1%). S. Domash, whose name was not offered to respondents during the previous poll, is supported by the same number of people. M. Chigir was mostly supported by representatives of government structures, and S. Domash – by representatives of non-government structures. V. Vecherko and M. Leonov occupy third and fourth place with equal results. The latter was not included in the questionnaire for the previous survey. A. Lukashenko moved down from second place in October to eighth in November, and only leaders from government structures supported him. V. Leonov, who was in third place in October, moved down lower than seventh place in November, thereby rapidly losing supporters.

Of all politicians who were featured in the October questionnaire, V. Goncharik, Z. Paznyak, O. Abramova, S. Gaidukevich, S. Kalyakin and Yu. Khodyko were not included in the November ratings. However, lots of new names appeared, including S. Domash, M. Leonov, M. Grib, M. Krivomaz, V. Yermoshin, G. Buravkin, I. Korotchenya, M. Myasnikovich, S. Bogdankevich and S. Shushkevich.

The leaders in the November national poll are the same as in October: A. Lukashenko has 38.2% (in October it was 33.2%), M. Chigir 4.5% (6.9%) and S. Shushkevich 4.5% (3.0%). The ratings of other politicians do not exceed the margin of error.

The distribution of places in the close-type presidential rating (i.e. respondents had to choose a name from the list) is somewhat different. According to Table 4, M. Chigir tops the November rating made by opinion leaders – he has 17.0% (in October he was in second place with 13%). V. Leonov’s rating rapidly fell: in October he was first and scored 16.7%, but in November he did not even make it to the top ten, which probably happened because he did not show any political or media activities. M. Chigir’s rating was improved by increased support of representatives from government structures (somewhat fewer people from non-government structures named him, however), which probably happened at the expense of V. Leonov.

M. Chigir is still a perfect choice for leaders from the non-government sector, while V. Vecherko, V. Goncharik, V. Yermoshin and S. Domash shared second-fifth places. M. Chigir also tops the list for representatives of the government sector, up from third place in October. M. Leonov got second place, because respondents filled his name in a an empty line.

On the whole, these responses show that the elite has not yet chosen a single candidate, who is able to challenge A. Lukashenko in the struggle for presidency. This is indicated by continual and serious fluctuations of politicians’ ratings, emergence of new names and rapid disappearance of some of them from the list.

Meanwhile, November did not bring about any significant changes to the close-end rating made by participants in the national poll: the leaders are the same, although now they enjoy somewhat less support.

Table 5 allows us to make a clear conclusion: opinion leaders, irrespective of the sector, which they represent, are against the re-election of Alexander Lukashenko as president. During the October poll, leaders were asked to answer the question, for whom they would vote in a hypothetical second round of elections, if they had to make a choice between a known Belarusian politician and A. Lukashenko. Answers to that question showed that opinion leaders are willing to choose that other politician, but with some exceptions. For instance, they said it may not be M. Myasnikovich or S. Gaidukevich. In the November poll, respondents had to choose between A. Lukashenko and representatives of social groups in a hypothetical second round of the presidential elections. According to its results, they are willing to support virtually any politician, who is going to challenge the first president of Belarus.

However, an independent candidate had the most support from opinion leaders, regardless of the sector, which they represent (86.6% – in October the situation was the same). Very few respondents said they would vote against both candidates, or gave no definite answer.

A lot fewer leaders now support an opposition candidate – only 66.0% (20.8% down from October). In this variant, the number of those who would vote for A. Lukashenko has increased (because of leaders from state structures), as well as the number of those who did not make any decision or would vote against both candidates.

When respondents were offered to choose between a person from the opposition and an independent candidate, many more of them chose the latter. The difference between the two does not depend on the sector, where respondents belong. However, more leaders from state structures said they were not sure.

What concerns other candidates who represent the authorities, leaders (irrespective of the sector that they represent) preferred him to A. Lukashenko. However, in this case more than 50% of them said that would vote against both (especially representatives of non-state structures), would not participate in the voting at all, or refused to give any definite answer.

Leaders’ answers to this question plainly show the electoral advantage of an independent candidate over any other candidate. Unfortunately, there is no independent leader at the moment, who is ready to take the burden of a national leader and oppose A. Lukashenko as his equal.

This is especially clear, when we analyze the results of the national survey. According to Table 5, A. Lukashenko is supported by more than 33% of respondents, whoever his rival is. However, if he had to compete with an opposition candidate, he would get 39.1%. We may assume that in this case he would not only be supported by his voiced proponents, but also people who are afraid of the opposition victory for a variety of reasons (government propaganda, the leaders are not strong enough, excessive radicalism etc).

However, when respondents had to choose between A. Lukashenko and an independent candidate, the current president was only supported by 34.8%. His opponent is only 1% behind him. Let us mention that in this case the number of respondents, who said that they were going to vote against both or were not sure was minimal. This variant, in our opinion, offers best perspectives for the opposition, because during the election race it can primarily aim to convince those who hesitate and there are only a little more than 20% of them. In any other variant the share of the electorate to be targeted by propaganda is a lot higher. The most vivid comparison of ratings of an independent candidate vs. a candidate of the opposition is in the third pair, where respondents could not choose A. Lukashenko. According to this information, an independent candidate in this case would have 3.6 times as much support as his rival. However, 54.4% would vote against both, thereby leading the first round of elections to a failure.

Here is the last thing we should take notice of. If we compare Table 5 to the results of the October poll, we can assume that neither the population at large nor the elite sees anyone who can clearly become a real leader of the nation and whom it makes sense supporting in the forthcoming elections, among the politicians we have. The fact, that ratings of real politicians are a lot lower than ratings of generic candidates representing different social group, which are obtained in their “rivalry” with A. Lukashenko, aslo indicates this fact.