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PROGNOSIS OF VOTING BY UNDETERMINED VOTERS (OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO FOR DEMOCRATIC FORCES)

One of the main questions today – how would voters, who have not determined their mind yet, act at polling stations. At the moment they amount to 25% (see Table 1). As we see from Table 2, about 17.2% of uncertain voters – some 4.3% of all respondents – are positive (very positive or rather positive) towards V. Goncharik. Almost the same number of voters – 17.5% among those undetermined or 4.3% of all respondents – are positive towards A. Lukashenko. Negative attitude towards A. Lukashenko (including very negative and rather negative) was expressed by 54.8% or 13.6% of the electorate.

Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question: “For whom would you vote, if the following politicians were candidates for presidency?” (closed question)

Table  2. Attitude of the undetermined towards V. Goncharik and A. Lukashenko*, %

* The undetermined – are those voters who answering the question “For whom would you vote at the presidential election, if candidates for presidency are the following politicians” chose options “for no one” or “find it difficult to answer”

When forecasting voting by the uncertain in line with an optimistic variant, A. Lukashenko would gain some 4.3% of positive attitude, or 51.7% in total; and A. Lukashenko’s negative 13.6% – we’ll add to the sum of S. Domash and V. Goncharik.

But the matter is that we cannot just sum up 11.4% of S. Domash and 12.1% of V. Goncharik to get 23.5%, because not all the voters are ready to support both candidates simultaneously. Their real, consolidated electorate overlaps by three fourths, and levels at 18.2%.

Therefore, 18.2% + 13.6% = 31.8%. As a result we could suppose than in line with the optimistic scenario of voting by the uncertain A. Lukashenko’s theoretical advantage in the first round amounts to 52% vs 32% of the single candidate. However, we shall remind this is a theoretic research, because a considerable part of undetermined voters, who are negative towards A. Lukashenko, might just go out of town on September 9 or vote against all. Here a lot depends on proper campaigning by the single candidate’s team.

Table 3. Attitude towards candidates of V. Goncharik and A. Lukashenko’s electorates, %

Expectations that a considerable part of A. Lukashenko’s determined electorate (47.4%) could change its opinion in favor of another candidate (reiterated by some leaders of the opposition) seem doubtful, see Table 3.