ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TENDENCIES IN 2001: POPULATION’S OPINION

Accumulation of positive estimations regarding different social-economic factors has been a distinguishing feature of dynamics of population’s economic visions in the current year. To put it other way, there is a certain growth of public satisfaction with economic situation. It is proved practically by all traditional indicators which IISEPS applies to monitor economic perceptions of our fellow citizens (see Tables 1–5). Although most of the indicators still gravitate towards negative estimation, a positive dynamics is evident.

Table 1. Dynamics of distribution of answers to the question: “How do you think economic situation in Belarus has changed over the last year?”, %

Table 2. Dynamics of distribution of answers to the question: “How has your life and life of your family changed since 1994?”, %

Table 3. Dynamics of distribution of answers to the question: “To what degree your present incomes (incomes of your family) allow:”, %

Table 4. Dynamics of distribution of answers to the question: “How would you assess quality of your life as a whole?”, %

Table 5. Dynamics of distribution of answers to the question: “How do you assess your material status?”, %

A growth in population incomes, which is seen from dynamics of its subjective estimations (see Table 6), is confirmed by objective data (see Table 7), calculated on the basis of official statistics (considering the question of Table 6, statistic data of the previous month is used). As we could easily see from Table 7, the above mentioned upward tendency began changing in September.

Table 6. Dynamics of distribution of answers to the question: “Please, state average income (including wages, pensions and other allowances, other incomes) for one family member last month “, %

Table 7. Average monthly wage and pension and their dynamics (March = 100.0%) in 2001

Thus, we could reasonably assume that social-economic situation improvement registered in public consciousness is objectively related to A. Lukashenko’s strategy fulfilled within the election campaign. Its key element was massive propaganda of economic “achievements” by authorities accompanied by a total pressure upon economic entities to ensure fulfillment of A. Lukashenko’s promises to raise wages and clear all arrears before the election date. Formally he kept his promise having average wage in August leveled at $100. However, according to independent observers, such speeding up social expenses of economic entities would negatively affect domestic economy in the near future. Some of them are vivid even today, for example, budget problems, a slump in wages and a total increase in backpayment. One might assume that in the near future these problems are likely to embody in public consciousness.

Today, considering inertia of public consciousness, we witness a less critical attitude towards the country’s leadership than previously (Table 8). Although the leadership of the country is, first of all, A. Lukashenko personally, the population is less likely to believe his promises than certain “leadership of the country” (see Table 9).

Table 8. Dynamics of distribution of answers to the question: “Do you believe a significant improvement of people’s life in Belarus is possible under the present leadership?”, %

Table 9. Distribution of answers to the question: “Do you think A. Lukashenko would be able to keep his election campaign promise to ensure a significant improvement in living standards?”, %

Regardless of a quantitative difference in assessment of the country’s leadership, today Belarus’ population is split in two in this respect. This is confirmed, in particular, by estimation of the current development course – more than 38% believe the country is developing in a wrong direction. Only 36.7% think in the opposite.

But what economic development direction does the majority of Belarus’ population consider right. Basically all the indicators reflecting economic views of respondents demonstrate strengthening of market economy orientation (See Tables 10–13). So, Table 10 shows that the number of supporters of liberal variant of market economy is going up, whereas support for left variants – is falling.

Table 10. Dynamics of distribution of answers to the question: “What would you prefer for Belarus?”, %

There is a considerable growth in the number of those who say private ownership is more efficient than public one (see Table 11). For the first time in IISEPS’s surveys the number of those who prefer to work for private companies exceeded the number of public sector advocates (see Table 12).

Table  11. Dynamics of distribution of answers to the question: “Which form of ownership do you consider the most efficient?”, %

Table 12. Dynamics of distribution of answers to the question: “What company would you prefer to work for?”, %

Even such indicator as attitude towards state price setting, which demonstrates a traditionally weak understanding by the population of economy self-control mechanisms under conditions of market relations, is set for improvement (see Table 13).

Table 13. Dynamics of distribution of answers to the question: “Do you think the state shall regulate prices for goods and services?”, %

Thus, a certain improvement of social-economic situation in the country, reported by respondents, resulted from A. Lukashenko’s election campaign, the essence of which boiled down to pressure upon economic entities to speed up their social expenses. Absence of objective preconditions for a real improvement of living standards would restore proper indicators to normal in the near future, which in turn is likely to cause an adequate reaction in public consciousness. Aside from that, a more radical reaction by Belarus’ population might be expected, because it would feel deceived.

A steady drift of public consciousness towards market economy values is continuing. This could be considered an indicator of the opposition’s right stance in the sphere of economic relations.