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LOCAL ELECTION – “SPIRAL OF SILENCE” UNTWINES

The elections to local Councils will take place in Belarus next spring. Only one fifth of the respondents knows when they are to take place. However, that does not mean there is no interest in these elections.

As we see from Table 1, today 60% of the respondents say they are ready to take part in local elections. That is one third more than a month before the March 1999 elections, when, according to our data, the same 60% participated (according to the data of the Central Election Commission – 64% of those having right to vote). And if we take into account the fact that out of 20% of those who find it difficult to answer the majority is inclined to participate, one could suppose that next spring we will see a high turnout.

Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question “Are you going to take part in the election to local Councils?”, %* The option was omitted in the given questionnaire

 

But why not now? What are the reasons why a part of voters does not want to go to polling stations? Table 2 gives an idea about it.

Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question “If you are not going to vote, then why?”, % (more than one answer is possible)

* Convinced supporters are those who are ready to vote for A. Lukashenko at the Belarus presidential election and the presidential election of the Russia-Belarus Union, who trust him and consider him an ideal politician. Convinced opponents are those who distrust the president and choose another politician on all other issues

This time, as in April, distrust tops the list. Voters do not believe that the strongest candidate will win the race – more than 12% of the respondents (16.2% among the president’s opponents) think that candidates who enjoy support of the authorities are likely to become deputies. If we add those who do not believe in a free and fair election, it turns out that 20% of all the respondents and about 30% of A. Lukashenko’s opponents are ready to ignore the elections because they doubt that would be real elections, which depend only on voters’ will. At the same time we shall note that as compared to the last year A. Lukashenko’s opponents look more optimistic – among them the number of those who have no doubts the authorities would be able to push their proteges to local Councils dropped by 5%.
Previously we have repeatedly stated that a considerable part of voters have no enough information about candidates and their programs, and as a result they vote “at random”. Nonetheless, they make their choice on the basis of other criteria, having no information about the programs of candidates, or their personal features. The attitude of this or that candidate towards A. Lukashenko and his policy becomes one of the key indicators in this respect, an identification sign by which voters distinguish “their” candidates from “strangers”.
And here significant changes have taken place. If in April the number of those who were going to vote for candidates-supporters of A. Lukashenko slightly exceeded the number of those ready to vote for candidates-opponents of the president, in September the situation changed (See Table 3). The amplitude of this change – 4% (from -1 in favor of supporters to +3 in favor of opponents). And that coincides with the figures of the fall of the president’s rating.

Table 3. Distribution of answers to the questions about nature of the future voting, %

Variant of answer
For what candidate would you prefer to vote?
For whom, do you think, the majority of voters would vote?
04’02
09’02
04’02
09’02
For a candidate-supporter of A. Lukashenko
29.2
27.9
49.5
35.0
For a candidate-opponent of A. Lukashenko
28.3
30.8
16.5
25.3
For another candidate
15.2
16.5
6.6
7.4
DA/NA
27.3
24.8
27.4
32.3
However, the most considerable changes have taken place in voters’ estimation of how the rest of voters would vote. In April many Belarusians speaking out for changes believed the majority would vote for candidates-supporters of A. Lukashenko (i.e. that they are in the minority), today their confidence in public support has increased. The spiral of silence repeatedly reported by IISEPS has finally begun to untwine.
A. Lukashenko’s electorate diminishes in number and becomes more consolidated – 89% of his supporters are going to vote for a candidate-supporter of the president, but their confidence in support of the majority is falling (only 77.8% believe the majority of voters would do the same).
The president’s opponents are less consolidated – 58.6% of them prefer voting for candidates-opponents of the president, and 18.1% – for another candidate. But their confidence in support of the majority is going up – more than half of them think the majority will support their choice.
It is noteworthy that only 32.2% of the “vacillatory” are ready to support candidates-opponents of A. Lukashenko and other candidates, and 36.2% – to vote in favor of candidates-supporters of A. Lukashenko.
Although there is enough time before the elections, today it is clear that contradictions between the opposition parties will not allow them creating a single election block. Judging by statements of party leaders we could predict that at least two blocks – a left-centrist and a right-centrist block would nominate their candidates next spring. The first block may include communist of S. Kalyakin, social-democrats of A. Bukhvostov and N. Statkevich. Liberal-democrats of S. Gaidukevich and Nadzeya with its new leadership (which has to solve the problem of registration with the Justice Ministry first) will probably join them. The second block will most likely include the BPF “Adradzhennye” of V. Vechorka, the UCP of A. Lebedko and probably two social-democratic parties of S. Shushkevich and V. Polevikova (the latter also has to settle the issue of its registration).
We have repeatedly mentioned that party membership of candidates is not a determinative factor for voters’ choice. Also it is still unclear whether or not voters who are ready to vote for a candidate from another party of the given block would automatically support a party member. At first sight we shall only state that the right-centrist block has a traditionally closer, more disciplined and consolidated electorate. The left-centrist block seems to have a quantitatively greater potential (See Table 4).

Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question “If you are going to support a candidate of one of the parties, which in particular?”, %

* The public opinion poll was conducted before the change of Nadzeya’s leadership

However, we shall not add party ratings mechanically. Still it is not clear who will gain the electorate of the split Nadzeya, or will S. Gaidukevich (who is at a certain height) join a block.
Meanwhile, we shall note that the idea of a single block enlists more and more supporters (See Table 5).

Table 5. Distribution of answers to the question “Do you support the creation of a block of opposition parties for participation in the local elections?”, %

Variant of answer
All respondents
A. Lukashenko’s supporters
A. Lukashenko’s opponents
Vacillatory
04’02
09’02
04’02
09’02
04’02
09’02
04’02
09’02
Yes
36.5
39.8
7.9
14.3
57.1
57.5
21.0
30.2
No
32.8
31.0
57.9
60.5
18.8
18.1
42.1
35.6
ЗО/НО
30.7
29.2
34.2
25.4
24.1
24.4
36.9
34.1
Ironically, if there are no changes on this issue among A. Lukashenko’s opponents (probably, because, mostly they are politically active citizens, many of whom have settled party preferences), the support of this idea has increased 1.5fold among the “vacillatory” and almost twofold among A. Lukashenko’s (!) supporters.