As the survey shows, almost all leaders and experts are against the idea of unification of Belarus and Russia into a single state (See Table 1). Almost 60% speak out for common good neighborly relations of two independent states, about 40% – for closer relations in the form of a union of two independent states. Clearly, representatives of the private sector prefer the first variant (74%), representatives of the public sector – support the second variant (55%). There are only 3% of those who favor the idea of unification.
Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question: “Which variant of Belarus-Russia relations do you consider the best?”, %
Almost two thirds of leaders and experts (65%) believe that the Union State of Belarus and Russia with both countries keeping their sovereignty, what the Belarusian head of state strives for, according to him, is impossible in principle (See Table 2). Even more respondents (78%) think that it is impossible to guarantee Belarus and Russia will enjoy equal rights in such union (See Table 3).
Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question: “Is the Union State of Belarus and Russia possible in principle with both countries keeping their sovereignty?”, %
Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question: “Is the Union State of Belarus and Russia possible when Belarus enjoys the same rights as Russia does?”, %
The majority of leaders and experts (60%) would like the integration of the two countries be based on the principles of the European Union (See Table 4). As one can note, the number of those who are satisfied with the present variant of the integration favored by A. Lukashenko is 2fold smaller (30%). The number of them is higher among representatives of the public sector (48%), 41% prefer the integration on EU principles, in the private sector the picture is opposite – 13% and 77%, respectively.
Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question: “Recently in his letter V. Putin suggested A. Lukashenko choosing one from three variants of further integration of Belarus and Russia. Which variant do you prefer?”, %
There are much more people who would like Belarus to be accepted to the European Union among leaders and experts (See Table 5). As we can notice, this preference is almost of no dependence on the structures they represent.
Table 5. Distribution of answers to the question: “Would you like Belarus to be accepted into the European Union?”, %
Meanwhile, as we see from Table 6, among leaders and experts there are much more those who would like Belarus to join NATO than those who are against it (43% and 30% respectively). In the private sector 60% are willing to join NATO, whereas in the public sector – the figure is lower – 24%.
Table 6. Distribution of answers to the question: “Would you like Belarus to join NATO?”, %
Table 7 clearly demonstrates that the overwhelming majority of leaders and experts (78%) does not trust the Belarusian head of state with respect to the integration policy. They have no doubts that under certain circumstances A. Lukashenko is able to renounce Belarus’ sovereignty. Some 94% of representatives of the private sector share this point of view and 62% of representatives of the public sector. Only every seventh upholds the opposite opinion.
Table 7. Distribution of answers to the question: “Will A. Lukashenko stand up for Belarus sovereignty, as he claims to, or he can renounce it under certain circumstances?”, %
Table 8 shows that even among leaders and experts there is no unanimity with respect to a possibility of conducting an election to the parliament of the Union State of Belarus and Russia. Only 27% believe the election is going to take place, and 38% are certain of the opposite. Almost half of representatives of the public sector (48%) is in the former group, and more than half (58%) of representatives of the private sector is in the latter. Naturally, more than one third of the respondents gave no definite answer to the given question.
Table 8. Distribution of answers to the question: “Will an election to the parliament of the Union State of Belarus and Russia take place?”, %
If such election takes place, 45% of the respondents, regardless of the structures they represent, say democratic opposition shall take part in it (See Table 9). Among representatives of the private sector 32% are against the idea, in the public sector – there are no opponents of it. It is worth noting that 38% of leaders and experts gave no definite answer to the given question (55% in the public sector).
Table 9. Distribution of answers to the question: “Shall democratic opposition take part in an election to the parliament of the Union State of Belarus and Russia?”, %
Thus, we can state that the majority of public opinion leaders and experts are set against the unification of Belarus and Russia into one state. They believe that our countries shall maintain normal neighborly relations. Belarus’ integration into the European Union attracts most of them. And even the number of supporters of the idea of joining NATO is 1.5fold higher than the number of those who are against it. At the same time the majority of the respondents does not trust A. Lukashenko with respect to the integration with Russia, they believe that under certain circumstances he is quite able to betray the sovereignty of our country.
