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“FLUCTUATE TOGETHER WITH THE PARTY’S LINE…”

As we have already mentioned, in December, as compared to April 2002, integration moods in the Belarusian socium reduced considerably. In our opinion, this phenomenon can be explained by the events which took place in August-September between our countries and the heads of state. It is very interesting which groups of voters contributed to the process? Table 1 provides certain answers to the question. The attitude towards the unification of Russia and Belarus is considered depending on attitude to A. Lukashenko.
Table 1. Dynamics of attitude to the unification with Russia depending on attitude towards A. Lukashenko, % (read horizontally)

Attitude towards A. Lukashenko
Attitude towards unification with Russia
Supporters
Opponents
04’02(28.3)
12’02(19.8)
04’02(21.5)
12’02(25.8)
Convinced supporters
(04’02 – 10.4, 12’02 – 14.3)
50.7
34.1
5.1
18.8
Convinced opponents
(04’02 – 46.9, 12’02 – 44.7)
19.8
14.7
33.5
32.0
As one can see, over eight months the number of supporters of the unification with Russia fell 1.4fold (from 28.3% to 19.8%), while the number of its opponents rose 1.2fold (from 21.5% to 25.8%). However, the number of supporters of the Belarusian-Russian unification among A. Lukashenko’s convinced electorate dropped almost 1.5fold (from 50.7% to 34.1%), whereas the number of opponents of the integration jumped 3.7fold (from 5.1% to 18.8%)!
There are some changes in the attitude to the integration in the ranks of A. Lukashenko’s convinced opponents. The changes, however, are no confusing as in the first case. The number of supporters of the integration went down from 19.8% to 14.7%, the number of opponents also crept down from 33.5% to 32%.
What does it mean? If we consider the negative attitude with respect to Russia and an ardent propaganda of Belarus’ sovereignty actively demonstrated the past fall by A. Lukashenko and state-run mass media, the only conclusion can be drawn: the president’s convinced electorate will support him in any case, regardless of the fact whether or not he is going to “surrender” Belarus to Russia, or, on the contrary, is going to strengthen its sovereignty. In Soviet times people said in such cases: “They fluctuate together with the party’s line”. The position is very comfortable – no point in thinking, always in good graces…