As the survey findings show, during the last three-four years integration moods have gradually grown in the Belarusian society, and in the first half of 2002 they reached its apogee. But after V. Putin’s summer attempt to clear up the Belarus-Russian relations to what A. Lukashenko reacted with open irritation, the growth was replaced by a noticeable cooling of “unionist” moods among officials and then in the whole socium. Today the ratio of supporters of Belarus’ independence and those who speak out for the unification with Russia is 3.4:1, whereas nine months ago it was only 1.9:1 (See Table 1).
Table 1. Dynamics of selection of the best variant of relations between Belarus and Russia, %
Although today 2fold more Belarusians are ready to vote for the integration of Belarus and Russia than against it, the interest in the integration is falling (See Table 2).
Table 2. Voting at a hypothetical referendum on the unification of Belarus and Russia, %
The integral result of the given tendency is presented in Table 3. As we can see, since April 2002 the number of supporters of the unification has dropped almost by one third, while the number of its opponents has increased by more than 20%.
Table 3. Dynamics of the number of supporters and opponents of the unification with Russia, %
* Convinced supporters are those who at a referendum would vote for the unification of Belarus and Russia and consider the unification into one state the best variant of bilateral relations. Convinced opponents are those who at a referendum would vote against the unification and consider good neighborly relations of two independent states the best variant of bilateral relations
What are the reasons for such a sharp change of moods in the Belarusian society? Quite recently, only eight months ago, we saw an opposite trend, enumerating the major factors which contributed to the growth of integration moods of the electorate. These factors are present today, but nonetheless, the moods change into the opposite. In our opinion, the reason is a rapid change of the contents of official propaganda with respect to Russia. We shall emphasize – propaganda, not policy, the essence of which, as before, is boiled down to the usage of integration rhetoric in order to receive political and financial assistance from the eastern neighbor.
As for the propaganda, since September 2002 state-run mass media, especially television, have assumed an anti-Russian stance, as if ordered to. Sometimes we had an impression that our TV is guided by the most radical Belarusian nationalists! As a result, a considerable part of A. Lukashenko’s electorate was confused. Some people still support the old policy of integration, others – more oriented at the personality of their ideal than the integration – joined the camp of opponents of the integration of the two countries. In particular, over the past eight months the number of supporters of Belarus’ independence in the convinced electorate of A. Lukashenko increased 3.7fold!
Which variant of the integration do Belarusians consider the best? First of all, it is noteworthy that three fourth of the respondents (74.9%) answered in the negative to the direct question about possible variants of the integration as a result of which our country loses its sovereignty and independence. The most attracting, as Table 4 shows, – a union of independent states with close political ad economic relations. More than half of the respondents (51.7%) chose this variant. Almost the same variant which presupposes common CIS relations between our countries received support of 19.7%. In other words, three fourth of Belarusians (71.4%) support the variants of good neighborly relations of independent states or a union of them, whereas the variant when Russia and Belarus unite into a single state attracts only 21.2% of the respondents.
Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question: “Which variant of the integration of Belarus and Russia would you personally prefer?”
| Variant of answer |
%
|
| Belarus and Russia shall form a union of independent states with close political and economic relations |
51.7
|
| Belarus and Russia shall become a single state with a common president, army, flag, currency, etc. |
21.2
|
| Relations between Belarus and Russia shall be as between other CIS member-states |
19.7
|
As for the present Union of Belarus and Russia, the population is pessimistic about it and there are no trends for improvement (See Table 5). The majority of Belarusians believe that this Union either has remained a mere declaration having no influence on the life of common people (more than 40% of the answers), or has turned into a sinecure for officials (more than 30% of the answers).
Table 5. Dynamics of distribution of answers to the question about the Union of Belarus and Russia, %
| Variant of answer |
04’01
|
04’02
|
12’02
|
| The union has remain a mere declaration of intentions having no influence on the life of Russians and Belarusians |
35.1
|
49.0
|
43.0
|
| The Union has improved the life of officials who work in its administrative bodies |
27.9
|
30.9
|
33.0
|
| The Union is a really functioning structure, which has improved the life of common Belarusians and Russians |
9.8
|
6.1
|
9.0
|
| Heard nothing about the union |
2.7
|
2.7
|
2.5
|
At the same time, out of three variants of possible development of the relations between the two countries suggested by V. Putin Belarusians would have opted for the integration on the principles of the European Union (See Table 6). Almost half of the respondents (46%) spoke out for that. And only 17.7%, i.e. 2.6fold less, choose the option of joining Russia as one of its subjects!
Table 6. Distribution of answers to the question: ” Recently in his letter V. Putin suggested A. Lukashenko choosing one from three variants of further integration of Belarus and Russia. Which variant do you prefer?”
Meanwhile, we can easily state that among Belarusians there are more and more supporters of Belarus joining the European Union (See Table 7). Almost 61% of the respondents think this way.
Table 7. Dynamics of distribution of answers to the question about voting at a hypothetical referendum on Belarus joining the European Union, %
As the survey findings show, a considerable part of the adult population of our country is confident that – as for democratic transformations – our eastern neighbors have achieved greater results. Table 8 proves it.
Table 8. Distribution of answers to the question: “After the collapse of the USSR leaders of the most Soviet republics pledge to build democratic states and civil societies. Do you think Russia and Belarus has made much progress in this respect in this respect?”
Table 9 is another proof. As one can notice, in most cases more than half of Belarusians believe that we have much more problems in all spheres of public life defining the level of democratization of any society than Russia does. In Belarus these problems are deeper and more serious than in Russia.
Table 9. Distribution of answers to the question: “In what spheres there are more unsolved problems in Belarus and in Russia?”, %
In the opinion of 44% of Belarusians, common Russians live better than common Belarusians. Only 35.1% of the respondents think in the opposite.
The survey findings show that there are different opinions on the modern relations between Belarus and Russia (See Table 10). As we can see, the number of those who are positive about these relations is 5.4% higher than the number of those who are negative about them. And all that is regardless of many years of integration propaganda! Thus, we can conclude: the present integration – is no more than a source of incomes for pseudo-patriotic officials.
Table 10. Distribution of answers to the question: “What do you think about the present relations between Russia and Belarus?”
The population is much more pessimistic about the present relations between the heads of our countries (See Table 11). The common estimation seems more negative: the negative estimation surpasses the positive – by 8.7%.
Table 11. Distribution of answers to the question: “What do you think about the relations between A. Lukashenko and V. Putin?”
Thus, the further the integration of Belarus and Russia develops, the colder, in the opinion of the population, the relations between the allies and their leadership become. May be the integration shall be slowed down until the relations turn hostile?
