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ELITE BELIEVES IN THE SUCCESS OF INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES. BUT IT DOESN’T EXPECT THE OFFICIAL RESULTS OF THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN TO MATCH THE ORIGINAL RESULTS

Although this time the authorities didn’t pay much attention to the election campaign into the local Councils of deputies, the polling data steadily points out that the Belarusians are ready to demonstrate high election activity (According to the IISEPS’s public opinion poll carried in December, about 64% of the respondents noted they would participate in the election.) If suggest that most of those who hadn’t made up their minds on voting in December (they were almost 20%) would come to polling stations, the optimism of experts and public opinion leaders (who claimed a month before the election that the campaign would be effective in most constituencies) turns quite reasonable (See Table 1).
Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question “Will, in your opinion, voters’ attendance be sufficient for the spring election to the local Councils of deputies to be valid?”, %

High degree of electorate predictability appeared to be the ground for a rare unanimity of the public and private sectors.
Besides the high electoral activity, negative experience of the campaign on boycotting election into the House of Representatives was another reason why an overwhelming majority of the polled experts negatively regarded the idea of boycott recurrence (See Table 2).

Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question “What do you think of boycotting the upcoming March election to the local Councils of deputies, as some opposition politicians call to?”, %

We shall remind that, according to the IISEPS’s data, only 8% of the respondents polled in November of 2000 claimed the boycott was effective (45% spoke out an opposite opinion). And it is no wonder that the leaders of those political structures that earlier ignored the parliamentary election (and nowadays – not without reason – state the election into local Councils can be hardly called free and fair) believe the election campaign is a nice opportunity for spreading their viewpoints, seeking new potential leaders, trying workability of the regional structures, etc. In our opinion, the fact that no polled expert spoke for the boycott is an indicator that the Belarusian political elite is getting mature. Its representatives, first of all of the opposition, have understood that it is possible to expect any changes in the country only when they really participate in the political struggle, even at unfavorable conditions.
The most interesting changes occurred in experts’ estimations of the electorate’s viewpoints. While in November public opinion leaders were rather pessimistic of the chances for president’s opponent candidates, three months later their estimations changed considerably (See table 3).

Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question on the nature of the future voting, %

Variant of answer
Which candidate, do you think, will enjoy support of the majority
Public sector employees
Private sector employees
02’03
11’02
02’03
11’02
For candidate-supporter of A. Lukashenko
31
59
15
29
For candidate-opponent of A. Lukashenko
0
3
18
26
Other candidate
27
–*
38
–*
DA/NA
41
38
29
45

* In these opinion polls the given variant of answer was not offered

Certainly, a new variant of answer “another candidate” (not offered in the previous poll) couldn’t but influence the experts’ opinions. The employees of the public sector believing most voters will support A.Lukashenko’s followers have decreased twofold. The decrease has become possible not due to experts’ re-estimation of the opponent candidate’s perspectives (on the contrary, no polled employee of the public sector believes in the victory of the latter) but due to better chances of the candidates who don’t take tough stances towards either the authorities or the opposition. Similar dynamics is observed in the answers of the respondents from private sector. Their answers should be apparently interpreted in the sense that the voter is more likely to prefer the candidates who won’t first talk of their love to the president (the election is into the local Councils) but speak of the more pragmatic things like improving the public transport system, cleaning streets, overhauling schools, etc.
In the eyes of elite, the reason to a sudden fall in the chances of A.Lukashenko’s supporters, as we see it, lies in the fact that the growth of tariffs for public utilities is so extremely an unpopular action (A.Lukashenko has publicly denied his being privy to the measure) that even the most ardent follower of the official course wouldn’t mention his support of the governmental policy in this respect. It is no secret that the opposition, by certain objective and subjective reasons, doesn’t enjoy high prestige with the Belarusian citizens, therefore showing off during the election campaign to the local Councils of deputies, according to the experts from the private sector, will hardly bring up the victory.
Thus, experts and public opinion leaders (from the public sector– to a lesser degree and from the private sector – to a greater degree) generally agree that the public is ready to actively support another candidate – neither a follower of the current authorities nor an ardent supporter of the opposition.
It is worth mentioning that during the presidential election the independent candidate (not a certain political figure but a variant of answer) related not to A.Lukashenko or to the opposition appealed to a considerable part of the voters. Of course, the issue of true independence and the very possibility of an independent candidate have always been and still remain disputable. Many are fully convinced that in the current political situation any sane and decent independent candidate will sooner or later oppose the current authorities. And the fact that black-and-white perception of the world has no future becomes obvious for the elite. For what common voters think about this (as regards the election to local Councils of deputies) – see Table 4.

Table 4. Dynamics of answer distribution to the question on the nature of future voting*, %

Variant of answer
Which candidate would you prefer to vote for
Which candidate, do you think, will enjoy support of the majority
12’02
09’02
04’02
12’02
09’02
04’02
For candidate-supporter of A. Lukashenko
31.1
27.9
29.2
36.5
35.0
49.5
For candidate-opponent of A. Lukashenko
31.2
30.8
28.3
24.7
25.3
16.5
Other candidate
12.4
16.5
15.2
8.0
7.4
6.6

* Data of the national opinion polls

As we see, in December the electorate didn’t fully share the elite’s current expectations. However, the increase in tariffs for public utilities didn’t take place then. How the negative reaction to this measure will influence the choice of the voters and how truthful are the suggestions of the elite that the public is ready to support another, independent candidate, will become known only after the voting.
Observers of the ODIHR OSCE characterized the previous election campaign (in March of 1999) as the authorities’ campaign targeted at not finding the will of people but simulating authorities’ support by the public. Since then attitude of the authorities to election campaigns of any level didn’t change fundamentally. The degree of control and the use of the notorious administrative resource directly depend here on the level of the election campaign. Consequently, during the presidential election the high stakes urge the authorities to commit more apparent and more frequent violations than during the election to regional Councils. At the same time, the election procedure, if consider past experience and the current election campaign, won’t basically change: the point is not how people vote but who and how will count the votes.

Table 5. Distribution of answers to the question” Will, in your opinion, the official voting results match the original results of the election campaign to the local Councils of deputies?”, %

Therefore, pessimism of the private sector employees concerning the official outcome of the election and, naturally, unwillingness of the public sector to answer this question are quite reasonable: it is not improbable that some of them will have to “ensure” these results (See Table 5).