Results of the nation public opinion poll make it possible to distinguish the citizens who are well-disposed to the private enterprise and support it. In other words, the citizens who can be referred to as enterprise’s electorate. In this regards, we examine the respondents who are in the positive towards entrepreneur strikes that took place in March of 2003 (“supporters” – 23.9%) and those respondents, equal in number, who spoke in the negative or were indifferent (“non-supporters” – 20.6%). Yet, in our opinion, it is more interesting to compare enterprise supporters and opponents, i.e. those who spoke in the negative on entrepreneur strikes (“opponents” – 5.4%).
Socio-demographic parameters of the above groups well demonstrate their difference (See Table 1).
Table 1. Social and demographic characteristics of enterprise supporters and opponents, %
| Characteristic features |
Supporters (23.9%)
|
Opponents (5.4%)
|
| Gender: | ||
| Men |
52.2
|
40.4
|
| Women |
47.8
|
59.6
|
| Age: | ||
| 18-29 |
32.8
|
9.3
|
| 30-39 |
29.8
|
19.3
|
| 40-49 |
23.1
|
21.1
|
| 50-59 |
9.0
|
23.3
|
| 60 + |
5.2
|
27.0
|
| Education: | ||
| Elementary |
0.7
|
20.1
|
| Secondary incomplete |
5.8
|
13.6
|
| Secondary |
38.8
|
31.5
|
| Secondary vocational |
32.2
|
18.1
|
| Higher (incomplete higher) |
22.6
|
16.7
|
| Status: | ||
| Public sector employee |
49.3
|
50.1
|
| Private sector employee |
25.1
|
11.4
|
| Student |
9.4
|
–
|
| Pensioner |
7.1
|
37.5
|
| Housewife |
3.3
|
1.1
|
| Unemployment |
4.0
|
–
|
| Per capita income (USD): |
54.8
|
48.4
|
There are slightly more men (52.2%) among the supporters while women (59.6%) are prevalent among the opponents. There’s an obvious shift of distribution in favor younger-aged among the supporters whereas over half the opponents are people aged 50 and over. The same is the distribution of both groups in the level of their education: 54.8% of supporters have higher or secondary vocational education while among the opponents these are fewer by 20 points (34.8%). Almost as many are those having elementary or incomplete secondary education among them (33.7%).
About half the supporters and the opponents are employees of the public sector. However, there are no students and unemployment among the opponents and pensioners are prevalent (37.5%). It should also be noted that every ninth opponent (11.4%) is a private sector employee. Nearly all of them are wage-earners. In average, supporters of private enterprise have higher per capita incomes.
Quite naturally, such objective differences lead to a sharp distinction in sociological characteristics of the groups under survey. This is apparent from their attitude to socio-economic problems (See Table 2). Thus, an overwhelming majority of enterprise supporters (83.5%) are convinced that the country goes in the wrong direction. Among the opponents these are less than a half and over one third is convinced in the opposite. Only 6.4% of supporters believe the socio-economic situation will improve in the near future. And there are notably more optimists among the enterprise opponents – 26.3%.
Table 2. Attitude to socio-economic problems, %
| Social characteristics |
Supporters
|
Opponents
|
| Is our country going in the right or wrong direction? | ||
| In the wrong |
83.5
|
48.3
|
| In the right |
10.3
|
33.7
|
| How will socio-economic situation change in the years to come? | ||
| Will deteriorate |
59.1
|
28.7
|
| Will not change |
29.7
|
32.8
|
| Will improve |
6.4
|
26.3
|
| Who is to blame for a sharp growth of communal-general tariffs this winter? | ||
| President |
74.2
|
27.8
|
| Government |
16.0
|
59.1
|
| Would you like to move to another country for permanent residence? | ||
| Yes, would like to move |
58.3
|
19.8
|
| Wouldn’t like to move anywhere |
37.3
|
80.1
|
| How would you vote at the referendum on joining the European Union? | ||
| For |
79.6
|
38.2
|
| Against |
6.9
|
33.2
|
Three thirds of the supporters are certain that the sharp growth of communal-general tariffs this winter has been authorized by the president himself and not by the government he blamed. On the contrary, 60% of opponents claim the government is to blame. Nearly 60% of supporters would rather migrate to another country while over 80% of opponents would rather not. Finally, about 80% of supporters are ready to vote for Belarus to join the EU whereas the opponents have split in two almost equal groups on the issue. It can be concluded that in general the enterprise opponents and supporters take almost alternative stands on socio-economic issues.
As it is seen from Table 3, enterprise supporters trust more in non-state media (62.2%), independent research centers (61.9%), the Orthodox Church (58.5%) and unions of entrepreneurs (52.2%). They trust by far less in all state institutions, especially governing bodies, including the president.
Table 3. Trust to state and public institutions, %
In the degree of credence among the opponents, expectedly, come the Orthodox Church (64.4%), the Army (61.9%), the president (54.6%) and state-run media (54.2). They trust the least in political parties, especially opposition ones, unions of entrepreneurs, trade unions and non-state media, i.e. all those things that symbolize for them the collapse of the developed socialism.
Enterprise supporters and opponents contrast to the utmost as concerns their attitude to A. Lukashenko. Thus, if the presidential election takes place tomorrow, 5.8% of supporters would cast their votes for A. Lukashenko (See Table 4). His rating with the supporters is not just low but quite comparable with the politicians like V. Vecherko (4.9%), A. Lebedko (4.9%), S. Gaidukevich (4.8%) and S. Shushkevich (4.6%). As for the opponents, A. Lukashenko is a leader without any other alternatives (39.9%), all other politicians rating within the margin of error.
Table 4. Attitude to A. Lukashenko, %
| Social characteristics |
Supporters
|
Opponents
|
| At the new presidential election I would vote for: (open question) | ||
| A. Lukashenko |
5.8
|
39.9
|
| V. Vecherko |
4.9
|
–
|
| A. Lebedko |
4.9
|
–
|
| S. Gaidukevich |
4.8
|
1.3
|
| S. Shushkevich |
4.6
|
0.9
|
| V. Goncharik |
3.8
|
–
|
| Should A. Lukashenko be elected the president once again or another candidate should take this post? | ||
| Elect again A. Lukashenko |
4.5
|
39.5
|
| Another candidate should take the post |
91.9
|
45.6
|
| At the hypothetical referendum on the amendments to the Constitution allowing A. Lukashenko stay his third term in office, I would vote: | ||
| For |
4.3
|
28.4
|
| Against |
72.8
|
31.3
|
| Politicians most fully representing respondents’ interests: (open question) | ||
| S. Shushkevich |
8.7
|
–
|
| A. Lebedko |
7.3
|
–
|
| V. Vecherko |
6.4
|
1.1
|
| S. Gaidukevich |
5.8
|
2.3
|
| Z. Poznyak |
5.7
|
–
|
| N. Statkevich |
5.4
|
–
|
| A. Lukashenko |
4.6
|
19.7
|
| V. Goncharik |
4.4
|
–
|
Closely approximated are the results demonstrating the answers of both groups as regards the next president: nearly 92% of supporters believe another candidate should be elected for A. Lukashenko’s post. About 73% of them wouldn’t vote at the probable referendum for the amendments to the Constitution allowing A. Lukashenko stay his third term. Enterprise opponents have split almost equally on the issue (with a narrow majority against A. Lukashenko).
In the degree of representing supporters’ interests, A. Lukashenko even loses (4.9%) to such well-known opposition politicians like S. Shushkevich (8.7%), A. Lebedko (7.3%), V. Vecherko (6.4%), S. Gaidukevich (5.8%), and N. Statkevich (5.4%). However, among enterprise opponents, A. Lukashenko represents the interests of only 19.7% of respondents.
As it has been many times said, the political parties are rated low with the citizens in Belarus. But the attitude of enterprise supporters is much more positive towards the parties than that of the opponents (See Table 5). As it can be seen, in the lead with the supporters are: the Belarusian Popular Front (9.6%), the Liberal Democratic Party (9.3%) and the United Civil Party (8.9%). The highest rating among the opponents has the Labor Party and the Party of Communists Belarusian – the parties whose rating with the supporters is within the margin of sample error. This is more likely due the program targets of these parties that don’t favor the private enterprise at all.
Table 5. The party that is closest to you in its political standpoints, %
Both groups of respondents differently estimate the level of democratization in the country. Nearly 83% of the supporters are to a various extent dissatisfied with democratization in Belarus, while almost half of the opponents are to a various extent satisfied (See Table 6). About 80% of the supporters are convinced that human rights are not observed in this country (among the opponents – 47.8%), over 60% of them are in the positive to the activity of the parliamentary group Republic (among the opponents – 18.7%) and nearly 82% claim all participants of the political process should be represented within the election commissions and not only the adepts of the current authorities (among the opponents – 52.9%).
Table 6. Estimation of the level of democracy in the country, %
| Social characteristics |
Supporters
|
Opponents
|
| Satisfaction with democratization in Belarus: | ||
| Rather/absolutely dissatisfied |
82.6
|
40.9
|
| Absolutely/rather satisfied |
14.7
|
47.2
|
| Are human rights observed in Belarus? | ||
| No/rather no |
79.9
|
47.8
|
| Yes/rather yes |
19.0
|
46.6
|
| Attitude to the deputy group Republic: | ||
| Positive |
61.1
|
18.7
|
| Negative |
4.2
|
28.9
|
| Should representatives of the opposition be included into election commissions? | ||
| Yes |
81.6
|
52.9
|
| No |
5.5
|
22.1
|
Quite alternative are the opinions of both groups about the recent election into the Local Councils (See Table 7) and about Belarus-Russia relations (See Table 8). Thus, the attitude of the supporters to the election results is not transparent while the opponents have almost no doubts: in their majority, they cast votes for the representatives of the authorities, didn’t notice any violations in the course of the election, are satisfied with the results and give credence to the announced results.
Table 7. Attitude to the recent election into the Local Councils, %
| Social characteristics |
Supporters
|
Opponents
|
| Voted at the election into the Local Councils: | ||
| For candidate-opponent of A. Lukashenko |
18.3
|
8.7
|
| For candidate-supporter of A. Lukashenko |
10.2
|
32.6
|
| Did violations or arbitrary rule within the election commissions take place during the election into the Local Councils? | ||
| Yes |
33.3
|
14.6
|
| No |
26.3
|
55.9
|
| Are you satisfied with the results of the election into the Local Councils? | ||
| No |
28.4
|
16.0
|
| Yes |
27.7
|
46.3
|
| Do you trust the announced results of the election into the Local Councils? | ||
| No |
39.1
|
18.2
|
| Yes |
36.8
|
56.8
|
Table 8. Estimating relations with Russia, %
| Social characteristics |
Supporters
|
Opponents
|
| Where do people live better nowadays? | ||
| In Russia |
52.7
|
24.4
|
| In Belarus |
20.9
|
49.2
|
| Which country made greater progress in democratization and building a civil society? | ||
| Russia |
76.0
|
33.8
|
| Belarus |
6.8
|
34.0
|
| How would you vote at the referendum on Russia-Belarus unification? | ||
| For unification |
50.9
|
60.5
|
| Against unification |
33.1
|
27.8
|
| Whose stand on the future of Russia-Belarus relations do you support? | ||
| Neither |
42.7
|
26.9
|
| Of V. Putin |
32.4
|
8.5
|
| Of A. Lukashenko |
12.4
|
45.8
|
| What will happen to Belarus in the ten years to come? | ||
| Belarus will remain a sovereign state but its dependence from Russia will grow stronger |
44.4
|
19.6
|
| Belarus will incorporate into Russia |
28.5
|
30.8
|
| Belarus will remain a sovereign state but its dependence from Russia will grow weaker |
10.9
|
17.9
|
Most supporters are convinced that people have better living in Russia and that Belarus is far not the leading country in the process of democratization. Among the opponents prevalent are those who have an opposite opinion. Also, there are more of those among them who are ready to vote for unification of both countries and who support A. Lukashenko’s standpoint on the future of Belarus-Russia relations. On the whole, there are more of those among the supporters who believe that in the short-term perspective Belarus will maintain its sovereignty, although its dependence from Russia will grow stronger. 30.8% of enterprise opponents predict Belarus’ incorporation into Russia within the next ten years.
Finally, there is great difference between the supporters and the opponents in the sphere of mass media (See Table 9). It is notable that there are 2.5-fold more NTV viewers and 1.5-fold fewer BT viewers among the supporters. The supporters prefer listening to FM stations (68.9%) while the opponents – to state radio channels (32.2%). Komsomolskaya Pravda is by far the most popular among the supporters (30.6%) while the opponents choose Sovetskaya Belorussia. In other words, mass media preferences of the respondents allow clearly identifying voters’ socio-political standpoints and are their peculiar indicator.
Table 9. Preferences in the sphere of mass media, % (open questions)
| Social characteristics |
Supporters
|
Opponents
|
| TV channels you watch: | ||
| ONT |
74.6
|
69.7
|
| RTR |
60.7
|
59.0
|
| NTV |
49.1
|
21.2
|
| Belarusian Television (BT) |
41.8
|
65.3
|
| Radio stations you listen to: | ||
| FM stations |
68.9
|
31.4
|
| Belarusian state-run radio |
19.0
|
32.2
|
| Local radio |
17.6
|
11.4
|
| Radio Liberty |
5.6
|
1.1
|
| Newspapers you read: | ||
| “Komsomolskaya Pravda v Belarusi” |
30.6
|
18.7
|
| “Sovetskaya Belorussia” |
22.0
|
29.9
|
| “Argumenty i Facty v Belarusi” |
13.5
|
13.7
|
| “Narodnaya Volya” |
7.9
|
0.7
|
| “Belorusskaya Delovaya Gazeta” |
7.4
|
3.9
|
| “Republic” |
5.7
|
8.8
|
The analysis given reveals that the supporters of private enterprise are the adherents of the democratic values. They deny the system of personal power, strive to real changes in their living and actively support the political opposition. This implies that entrepreneurs are not alone in their struggle for socio-economic and political rights. They are supported by almost a quarter of voters who are the most dynamic and perspective. So, the entrepreneurs should not confine their problems within their stratum only but actively appeal to their potential electorate and co-operate with all those standing for changes.