BELARUSIAN PANTHEON

In IISEPS June poll 2012 we again asked the question about the politicians of the past and present the most sympathetic or ideal for the respondents. The question was closed; the respondents were offered to choose from the fixed list (Table 1).

Table 1. Dynamics of answering the question: “Who among the political figures listed below do you sympathize with most of all, who matches your political ideal?”, % (more than one answer is possible)

* This politician was not included in the relevant questionnaire list

Considering the data of Table 1, several aspects should be noted. P. Masherov just like 16 years ago ranks first again. However, it has happened not due to the growth of his own rating, which practically hasn’t changed for the last four years, but due to the decline in the ratings of his closest rivals, A. Lukashenko and V. Putin. The decline in the “ideal” rating of the incumbent president of Belarus corresponds to the decline in other assessments of his activity: whereas in June 2008 his electoral rating made up 38.9%, in June of the current year it is 29.7%. Upon fall of the electoral rating by 10 points the decline in the “ideal” rating only by 5 points is not so bad a result. In fact, A. Lukashenko’s rating nearly returned to the level of 2004.

In contrast, the “ideal” rating of his Russian colleague descended dramatically as against the level eight years before, almost 4 (!) times lower. Meanwhile, the respondents’ attitude to him is good on the whole, 47% have a positive attitude to him. However, V. Putin is no longer “a white hat” for Belarusians. To all appearances, his “ideal” rating in Belarus was exposed to erosion on both sides: A. Lukashenko’s supporters were irritated by the conflicts, while the democratic part of the community was astonished at the Russian protests that began in December last year.

Speaking of other trends we should emphasize a steady growth of popularity of such Belarusian heroes as Prince Vitaut and K. Kalinowsky. The latter has already joined the five leaders. It is hard to forecast whether this trend develops, but it is for the first time when the five leaders include not only A. Lukashenko, and Russian and Soviet politicians.

Besides, tsars or kings hold pride of place in the Pantheon of the Belarusian mass consciousness but their popularity is either stable, or falling. Tsar Peter І and the leader of anti-tsar rebellion K. Kalinowsky have almost “met”: one going down, the other going up the rating list.

Moreover, we’d like to draw your attention to material decline in the popularity of V. Lenin and J. Stalin. A. Lukashenko’s popular statement “Lenin and Stalin are symbols of our people” is just contrary to the fact.

Another curious phenomenon is the growth of the popularity of the leaders of the Central European anticommunist revolutions V. Havel and L. Walensa.

If we consider good feelings towards various politicians as an indicator of loyalty towards one or other historical discourse, version of the Belarusian history and place of Belarus in the world and throughout time, we can state a gradual departure from not only the Soviet narrative, but also the Russian one, and approach to the proper Belarusian narrative (in the range from Vitaut and K. Kalinowsky to P. Masherov and A. Lukashenko) and to the European one, though still at a very slow pace.

The data of Table 1 give an overall picture. And the difference of hero hierarchies of various Belarusian social groups can be seen in Table 2.

Table 2. Hero pantheon subject to socio-demographic characteristics and political preferences*, %

* The highlighted values in each column are five most popular personalities in the relevant group

We can observe both the significant differences and the structural unity. The protagonist of the young is K. Kalinowsky, however, Vitaut also ranks among the five together with the Russians V. Putin, Peter I and Catherine II. The elderly (by the way, every second) choose A. Lukashenko as their protagonist, then follow P. Masherov, V. Putin and Tsar Peter.

Obviously, the hero lists of the Belarusian young people and old people overlap to a certain extent, and exactly as regards the Russian rulers.

The groups of different geopolitical orientations and political preferences show the largest gap (by times and even ten times) as regards the persona of the incumbent president of Belarus. As regards other heroes the gaps are markedly smaller. “Euro-Belarusians” just like the young rank K. Kalinowsky first, but P. Masherov ranks second with them; those who do not trust the president rank the same heroes first and second, but the order is reversed. The top five ideal politicians of both the groups include the Russian emperor and empress; the only group that rank a European politician among the five leaders, and namely, the former British Prime Minister M. Thatcher, is the group of “Euro-Belarusians”.

Not only A. Lukashenko’s supporters, but also “Belo-Russians”rank the president of Belarus first, and P. Masherov and V. Putin second and third. However, it is curious that both the groups have ranked not only Tsar Peter but also K. Kalinowsky among the five leaders.

Neither the society as a whole, nor the groups sharply differing in their demographic and political characteristics totally fall within one or other mentally consistent discourse. The heroes of “Euro-Belarusians” are P. Masherov and Russian emperors; the heroes of A. Lukashenko’s supporters are again the officially ignored P. Masherov and the rioter K. Kalinowsky. We can observe a certain tendency over 16 years, but this tendency is still very ambiguous and contradictory.

Whereas the political and geopolitical dispositions in the society are more or less clearly determined, the situation with the Hero Pantheon that reflects understanding of the history is more complex. Another fact that should be drawn attention to is that Belarusians do not now have any consensus heroes whose popularity would exceed 25%. The problem is not that their heroes are not good from somebody’s point of view; the problem is that there are no heroes at all in a sense.