A ghost is wandering in Belarus, a ghost of change. This is what independent journalists, political analysts and politicians representing “the Fifth Column” are writing more and more often about. Let us confine to one quote: “Today the society makes the demand on new leaders and a program of changes” (A. Yegorov, a political analyst). The June poll seems to confirm the presence of the Ghost (Table 1). For more than a year the percent of the supporters of changes has increased by 16.2 points and reached its historical maximum of 77.3%, meanwhile the percent of the stability preservation supporters has reduced twice and fallen to its historical minimum of 15.1%.
Table 1. Dynamics of answering the question: “What statement do you agree with?”, %
| Variant of answer |
06’09 |
06’10 |
05’11 |
06’12 |
| Belarus needs changes |
48.0 |
62.0 |
61.1 |
77.3 |
| Belarus needs stability |
46.4 |
25.4 |
32.5 |
15.1 |
| DA/NA |
5.6 |
12.6 |
6.4 |
7.6 |
The demand for changes exists, hence the matter depends on the supply. Realization of supply in practice according to the tradition established in our country is seen in the search for a leader able to head the movement of the changes supporters. The fact that the latter are ready to lineup in columns raises no doubts.
The fact of the mass demand for changes recorded in Table 1, however, suggests nothing about the character of the desired changes. In June, 96.2% of the authorities opponents and 71.2% of proponents thereof spoke in favor of changes, while the percent of the authorities opponents themselves for the second quarter of the year, on the contrary, didn’t increase, but fell down to the record-breaking value for the last year (Table 2).
Table 2. Dynamics of answering the question: “Do you consider yourself in opposition to the acting power?”, %
| Variant of answer |
06’11 |
09’11 |
12’11 |
03’12 |
06’12 |
| Yes, I do |
25.8 |
28.3 |
22.6 |
23.4 |
19.2 |
| No, I don’t |
60.3 |
56.0 |
63.8 |
66.0 |
71.6 |
| DA/NA |
13.9 |
15.7 |
13.6 |
10.6 |
9.2 |
The price surge continuing in the country, naturally, gives rise to dissatisfaction. But this is diffuse dissatisfaction. It, according to the sociologist L. Gudkov, “unlike a protest does not require any organization, or unity, or reasonable actions”. A classic case of diffuse dissatisfaction was described by A. Chekhov in the short novel “Volodya the Big and Volodya the Little”: “Why do you want science all of a sudden? And, perhaps, you want constitution? Or, maybe, sturgeon under horseradish source?”
A typical Belarusian change supporter does not, certainly, even think of sturgeon and under horseradish sauce, but the problem of Constitution is also at the periphery of his interests. Diffuse dissatisfaction leads not to a protest, but to social decay (degradation), which is, in particular, expressed in increased alcohol abuse, common corruption, aggressiveness, and trivial offence.
The problem of changes is, first and foremost, the problem of the subject of changes. Here, it would be pertinent to remind a line from the Internationale: “Nobody will bring us dispensation, neither Lord, nor the King, nor a Hero. We shall win our liberation with our own hands.” Well, the last line is just what lacks. Collateral confirmation of this conclusion is suggested by the data of Table 3. The percent of those willing to drastically change their own lives and move to another country of residence has reduced from March 2011 by 4 points (it goes without saying, we mean only a declared willingness to emigrate for permanent residence). It is notable that the Russian direction has grown more popular while the West direction (Germany, the USA) is less favored. It is likely that such geopolitical orientation is associated with the information about the global crisis persisting in Mass Media.
Table 3. Dynamics of answering the question: “Would you like to move to another country for permanent residence, if you had such an opportunity?”, %
| Variant of answer |
10’01 |
06’06 |
03’11 |
06’12 |
| To Germany |
18.5 |
11.4 |
16.0 |
8.8 |
| To the USA |
6.1 |
7.2 |
10.3 |
7.9 |
| To Russia |
3.6 |
4.3 |
4.9 |
6.0 |
| To Poland |
5.8 |
5.0 |
5.9 |
6.2 |
| To the Baltic States |
1.8 |
2.9 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
| To another country |
6.3 |
2.7 |
5.8 |
10.4 |
| Total |
42.1 |
33.5 |
45.4 |
41.4 |
| I wouldn’t like to move anywhere |
52.0 |
57.6 |
50.6 |
52.0 |
| DA/NA |
5.9 |
8.9 |
3.9 |
6.6 |
The decline in the popularity of emigration as a cardinal way of solution of one’s own life problems was not followed, which is important, by comprehension of new emerging opportunities for realization of the civic economic activity in Belarus (Table 4). The euphory 2006 remained in the past. Neither multiple calls to set an end to the social dependency, nor adoption of Directive No.4, nothing could mobilize the personal resources of the people. The result proved to be reverse: from March 2011, the percent of those answering in positive to the question “Would you like your children go in for private business and tie their lives with entrepreneurship?” reduced from 53.8% to 46%.
Table 4. Dynamics of answering the question: “What is your opinion, can young people make a successful career in Belarus today?”, %
| Variant of answer |
03’02 |
04’06 |
06’08 |
12’08 |
03’11 |
06’12 |
| Yes, they can |
43.2 |
61.6 |
48.7 |
50.9 |
45.9 |
46.2 |
| No, they cannot |
39.4 |
30.7 |
40.5 |
35.7 |
44.9 |
44.4 |
| DA/NA |
17.4 |
7.7 |
10.8 |
13.4 |
9.3 |
9.4 |
The data recorded in the course of social polls should not be taken literally. They are just material for analysis and nothing more. The very fact of the increase of the number of changes supporters is, certainly, important. It reveals production of dissatisfaction in the community, but suggests nothing about the character of this dissatisfaction. Meanwhile, attempts of simple solutions (there is a critical mass of dissatisfied, hence the matter depends on the promotion of a single leader able to head the protest) are counter productive. You know, such simplicity is worse than robbery.