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ATTITUDE TO BALLOT BOYCOTT

We have repeatedly emphasized the fact that Belarusians show interest in politics mainly as viewers (TV-viewers). As regards the elections in particular, Belarusians according to the Soviet tradition and, primarily, representatives of the senior age groups take part in voting quite actively. In fact, performing of “the civil duty” is limited to ballot marking. The number of signature collectors, electioneerers and observers rarely exceeds the statistical error margin.

The data of Table 1 illustrate the declarative willingness of the respondents to join the voting team if invited by a parliamentary candidate they sympathize with. We should assume the percent of the positive answers (21.5%) quite high. Besides, contrary to the fear factor so eagerly referred to many independent experts and opposition politicians, the power opponents declare their willingness to render support to their candidate 2.8 times more frequently than the power supporters.

Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question: “If a sympathetic parliamentary candidate should offer you to join his voting team, would you agree to join?” depending on the attitude to the authorities, %

Variant of answer

06’12

Attitude to the authorities

Opponents

Supporters

Yes

21.5

45.3

16.0

No

68.3

36.2

76.2

DA/NA

10.2

18.5

7.8

The last line of Table 1 deserves special attention. The percent of DA respondents among the power opponents is 2.4 times higher as against the supporters. To all appearances, if you say you are a mushroom (an oppositionist), so into the basket you go (take part in practical activities), but there is no wish to do it. Hence, the indecisiveness increases.

Such a high level of negative answers from the power supporters proves once again the political truism: the Belarusian authoritative regime relies not on the public sympathy, but on the public apathy. Hence, the level of the electoral support of the prime mover per se has no direct effect on the power stability. Remember, B. Yeltsin’s rating before his retirement was 5%.

What kind of support are the respondents agreeing to join the voting teams ready to render their candidate? The most popular answer is “Everything required in order that the majority of voters voted for my candidate” (8.2%). Least of all the respondents are willing to provide financial support to their candidate (0.6%). For the country with the average salary of $ 400 such chariness is natural (Table 2).

Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question: “If ‘yes’ what things in particular would you like to do in the team of a parliamentary candidate?” (more than one answer is possible)

Variant of answer

%

Everything required in order that the majority of voters voted for my candidate

8.2

To be an observer at a precinct

6.7

To distribute information materials

6.5

To collect signatures for the candidate

5.4

To take part in agitation meetings, rallies, pickets

2.3

To make donations to his campaign

0.6

The percent of the positive answers against the negative answers to the direct question “Would you personally like to become observer of the election process?” differs slightly from the answer ratio as to the question of Table 1: 71.1% vs. 22.7%. Almost to the same ratio (2.9), the power opponents more frequently than the supporters declare their determination to take part in the observation.

Table 3 shows the dynamics of answering the question: “What is your attitude to the ballot boycott of the pending Parliamentary Elections some oppositionists call for?” There has occurred notable polarization of the public opinion for the three months following the March poll, that is there has been an increase of the percent of the respondents both denying (+9.4 points) and supporting (+3.6 points) the boycott idea. The polarization occurred due to the reduction of the percent of those who heard nothing about the boycott (by 13.3 points). Moreover, the number of boycott opponents among the oppositionists decreased slightly (–4.4 points), whereas among the loyal it increased significantly (+13.8 points).

Table 3. Dynamics of answering the question: “What is your attitude to the ballot boycott of the pending parliamentary elections some oppositionists call for?” depending on the attitude to the authorities, %

Variant of answer

09’08

03’12

06’12

Attitude to the authorities

Opponents

Supporters

03’12

06’12

03’12

06’12

Negative

26.5

20.2

29.5

21.6

17.4

19.6

33.4

Indifferent

24.8

26.5

28.0

10.5

25.3

34.3

28.8

Positive

8.8

10.6

14.2

31.4

40.3

4.1

8.2

I’ve heard nothing about it

38.9

41.6

28.3

36.1

16.7

41.8

29.5

In 2008, literally on the eve of the Parliamentary Elections (held on the 28th of September) the percent of the boycott supporters made up only 8.8%. Today it is 1.6 times higher, and, probably, it will rise even more by autumn. 40.3% of the power opponents are now supporting the boycott idea.

The attitude to the boycott is another marker of the new socio-political situation forming in Belarus. It is a direct consequence of the man-made crisis 2011. The effects thereof have not been fully eliminated, and the resources for such elimination are not visible for the moment being.