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WHAT CAN BELARUSIANS AFFORD?

The measures for economical stabilization taken at the end of 2011 are about to deplete their resources. One could hardly recover legs by the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate only. It is necessary that the quantity of real rubles (not produced by inflation) on people’s hands should increase. However, no such trend can be observed. The real household disposable income for January-April as against the same period of the previous year has made up 99.9% according to the official statistics.

Sociology could not but respond to such a cheerless economy, and it did respond. An upward trend of social indices the establishment of which has been steadily recorded since the end of 2011 has leveled off. Among the three indices (Tables 1-3) only the Financial Standing Index has increased by a tangible value for the last quarter of the year (from –25.3 to –19.1). The Expectations Index has not practically changed, while the Policy Correctness Index has decreased from –17.2 to –21.9.

Table 1. Dynamics of answering the question: “How has your personal financial standing changed for the last three months?”, %

Variant of Answer

12’10

03’11

06’11

09’11

12’11

03’12

06’12

Improved

24.9

17.2

1.6

5.1

7.1

15.3

12.8

Not changed

57.7

54.8

23.2

20.0

31.3

43.4

54.7

Worsened

16.0

26.9

73.4

73.7

59.8

40.6

31.9

FSI*

8.9

–3.7

–71.8

–68.6

–52.7

–25.3

–19.1

* Financial Standing Index (difference of positive and negative answers)

Table 2. Dynamics of answering the question: “How will the socio-economic situation change in Belarus within the next few years?”, %

Variant of Answer

12’10

03’11

06’11

09’11

12’11

03’12

06’12

It will improve

30.6

29.2

11.9

12.9

17.1

22.5

21.4

It will not change

40.7

42.0

20.3

24.1

24.8

34.4

38.5

It will worsen

17.2

23.0

55.5

52.7

45.0

32.7

30.4

EI*

13.4

6.2

–43.6

–39.8

–27.9

–10.2

–9.0

* Expectations Index

Table 3. Dynamics of answering the question: “Is the state of things in our country developing in general in the right, or in the wrong direction, in your opinion?”, %

Variant of answer

12’10

03’11

06’11

09’11

12’11

03’12

06’12

In the right direction

54.2

45.3

26.1

17.0

25.6

35.3

32.4

In the wrong direction

32.5

40.0

61.8

68.5

55.7

52.5

54.3

DA/NA

13.3

14.7

12.1

14.5

18.7

12.2

13.3

PCI*

21.7

5.3

–35.7

–51.5

–30.1

–17.2

–21.9

* Policy Correctness Index

According to Table 1, the FSI increase was associated with the decrease of the share of respondents who pointed out that their financial standing had improved for the last three months. It is a rare case. The reason thereof is the 11.3-points’ growth of the share of respondents, whose financial standing has not changed.

Taking into account that among the three social indices PCI is the most politically loaded, its reduction cannot but have an effect on the ratings of ‘an only Belarusian politician’: over the second quarter of the year, the electoral rating of A. Lukashenko fell from 34.5% to 29.7%, and the trust rating declined from 42.2% to 38.5%. A. Lukashenko’s references to “the dashing 90ies” remembered by ‘the older generation’ do not make an adequate impression on the electorate any more. The previous year showed that the 2010s could beat the last decade of the XX century by their “dashing level”.

A. Lukashenko determines the crisis 2011 exclusively as a financial one, and uses every convenience to state that the crisis is now a thing of the past (“we have outlived it”). It is not improbable that through the window of the armored Mercedes burning up the Belarusian roads cleared from cars of ordinary citizens the “view” of the first half of 2012 has no vital differences from the “view” a year ago. However, the people do not have an opportunity to travel so sweepingly, that’s why they have an opportunity to observe details, where, as you know, the devil prefers to hide. The results of such observations are reflected in Table 4.

Table 4. Dynamics of answering the question: “Do you think that the Belarusian economy is now in crisis?”, %

Variant of answer

06’11

09’11

12’11

03’12

06’12

Yes, I do

81.5

87.6

81.5

77.2

71.7

No, I don’t

8.4

8.0

8.0

15.1

21.5

DA/NA

10.1

4.4

10.5

7.7

6.8

Despite the significant decrease of the share of respondents who agree that the Belarusian economy continues to experience a crisis (–15.9 points from September 2011), the percentage of the positive answers is 3.3 times higher than the percentage of the negative answers. In terms of the pending Parliamentary Elections the government will certainly take measures to reverse the pessimistic moods of the public, but it will be rather difficult to keep these moods at a desirable level till the year end.

The fact that the dynamics of the answers to the above mentioned questions rests on realistic grounds is confirmed by the data of Table 5. Such a considerable difference is explained by the fact that the March poll of 2011 was conducted before the official start of the “financial” crisis. Therefore the distribution of answers in the first column may be nominally taken as the basis for the economy providing an average salary level close to $ 500. But even with that average salary 44% of Belarusians (the sum of the first and second lines) could hardly make a living. In June 2012 this category enhanced to 57.2%. But as we have already said above, such an increment is invisible looking out of the Mercedes window.

Table 5. Dynamics of answering the question: “What of the following groups of population would you most likely classify yourself within?”, %

Variant of answer

03’11

06’12

We hardly make both ends meet, there is not enough money even for food

10.3

14.0

There is enough money for food, however purchasing of clothes causes serious difficulties

33.7

43.2

There is enough money for food and clothes, however purchasing of durable things is problematic for us

44.1

36.1

We can afford buying durable things without difficulties, however purchasing of really expensive things is problematic for us

10.9

5.9

We can afford really expensive acquisitions – a flat, a summer house, etc.

0.7

0.6

NA

0.3

0.2

The June poll has proved that the country is entering a new stage of development. During the first three presidential terms of the “all-people’s” president the country’s economy was growing, and it allowed the government to gradually increase the household income, and thereat, to prevent any serious social split. In the environment of a centralized economy, the second objective presents no special problems. The head of state used to deem the household income growth as the key mission of the government. This resulted in the struggle for fulfillment of the principal obligation taken at the IIIrd All-Belarusian National Assembly at “nosebleed” cost (meaning the noses of the government members).

However, it was the whole community who were to pay for the achievement of “the sacred figure”. Today, we witness a second attempt to reach the level of the average salary promised as far as six years ago, but subject to an essential proviso: “The main economic principle is the concordance of the growth rate of the labor productivity and the growth rate of the average salary. This rule is never canceled!” (Address-2012). Methodical following of this rule means that the supreme power disclaims any responsibility for the household income growth and delegates it to the local managers. Let us again quote an extract from Address-2012: “…a salary should be earned. However some top managers, I repeat, have understood the new situation in a simplified manner – they think that they can do nothing, that they are released from any responsibility for the growth of people’s incomes. The one who thinks so is seriously mistaken. A manager’s task remains the same: to ensure the growth of the labor productivity which shall result in the growth of the employees’ salaries”.

Successful implementation of such orders is practically possible only on condition of the abolition of the basic principles of the command-and-control socio-economic model established in the country, and this could lead to many unforeseen consequences.