THE MAJORITY STILL DOES NOT HEAR ANYTHING

To European measure Belarusians can be safely attributed to an electoral nation. They love to vote. Such is the tradition dating back to the Soviet past. A Soviet person was trained to participating in two types of mass political actions: to voting and to passing in festive columns of demonstrators past the tribunes from which representatives of bureaucratic establishment of the proper administrative and territorial level greeted him. In independent Belarus the second tradition was considerably devaluated, that is why voting remained the only officially allowed mass political action.

According to the IISEPS first opinion poll (April 1992), 66% of the country’s population took part in the election of the USSR people’s deputies (for the so called “Gorbachev’s congress”) in 1989. In 1990 appearance at the first alternative election of deputies to the Supreme Soviet of the BSSR made up 69.3%. Belarusians also voted together at the first Republican referendum in May 1995. According to the official data, appearance made up 64.8%. A year and a half later at the second republican referendum it grew up to 84.1%. It was L. Ermoshina’s debut in the office of head of the Central Election Committee.

From this time on official data stopped matching the results registered in the course of national opinion polls. The latter testify to the effect that appearance exceeding 60% is a norm for parliamentary elections. Most likely the forthcoming election in autumn of the current year will not become an exception in this sense.

Half a year before the election every second Belarusian declared his/her readiness to vote (Table 1), but there are still resources for an increase in appearance, and the resources are considerable. Electoral activity of the authorities’ opponents is traditionally lower than activity of their supporters: the majority of the authorities’ opponents do not see any point in participating in elections whose outcome is 100% predictable.

Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question: “In half a year parliamentary elections are going to be held in Belarus. Will you participate in them?”,%

The predictability does not provide for any places for deputies representing interests of A. Lukashenko’s opponents. Practice is a criterion of truth, and personal composition of the last two parliaments convincingly confirms the truth. High official appearance and absence of oppositionists in the parliament indicate the unity of the Belarusian nation. And if the nation is united, whose interests do the so-called opposition parties represent? It’s a stone’s throw from this rhetorical question to accusations of aiding external foes of the “young Belarusian democracy”. The “fifth column” label is from the same semantic row.

Meanwhile, the data of Table 2 prove that A. Lukashenko’s political opponents have their supporters in society. Taking into account the line “For a different candidate” they could safely put in a claim for 30% of deputy mandates and taking into consideration the crisis year of 2011, perhaps even for a larger number.

Table 2. Dynamics of answering the question: “Which candidate would you prefer to vote for?”, %

For three months that passed since the December opinion poll the topic of boycotting the forthcoming parliamentary election has not acquired additional supporters in society (Table 3). It is evidence of opposition’s limited media resources, as well as of absence of interest in its activity in Belarusian society. Let us pay attention to the almost equal level of answers in the column “I have heard nothing about it”. It means practical parity in the level of attention to information generated by opposition among supporters and opponents of the authorities. However, regardless of what decision concerning the format of their participation/nonparticipation in the forthcoming voting they would take in the party headquarters, it would hardly appreciably tell upon the ratio of supporters and opponents of the boycott in society. It is clear that the matter concerns only opponents of the authorities, as their supporters a priori do not respond to the appeals of opposition.

Table 3. Dynamics of answering the question: “What is your attitude to the boycott of the forthcoming parliamentary election which a part of opposition urges to?”,%

Concluding the pre-election topic, let us accentuate once again that Belarusian society keeps being in a dormant state. The crisis of 2011 did not manage to shake it out of slumber. In the middle of summer the impression was that the process of agitation was about to begin, but the October stabilization of Belarusian ruble’s rate proved to be akin to a drastic social soporific draught. The fact should be remembered by those who are planning to actively participate in the forthcoming election campaign. Politics are an art of what is possible, that is why elaboration of any political project should be preceded by an analysis of the limits of what is possible.