During the last year’s unprecedented fall of A. Lukashenko’s rating some political scientists began talking about forming of a new anti-Lukashenko majority. Formally, the arithmetical anti-Lukashenko majority emerged when the rating fell much lower than 50% and the number of those who did not trust the president made up over a half of all respondents. However, experts, to all appearances, put into the invented notion a much deeper sense – the president had lost support of the majority of the population for good, the majority had once and for all turned away from him and from this time onward would look for other idols.
However, the IISEPS opinion poll held in December, 2011 already showed that the tendency of the president’s rating fall had turned back. During the last quarter indices of A. Lukashenko’s public support scurried having grown approximately by 10 percentage points. At that popularity indices of opposition leaders and opposition in general remained virtually immutable (Tables 1-2).
Table 1. Dynamics of A. Lukashenko and some opposition politicians’ electoral ratings, %
| Politician |
12’10 |
03’11 |
06’11 |
09’11 |
12’11 |
03’12 |
| A. Lukashenko |
53.0 |
42.9 |
29.3 |
20.5 |
24.9 |
34.5 |
| V. Neklyaev |
6.9 |
4.7 |
7.4 |
6.2 |
6.0 |
6.8 |
| A. Sannikov |
3.2 |
7.7 |
5.4 |
8.8 |
7.1 |
6.1 |
Table 2. Dynamics of A. Lukashenko and opposition political parties’ trust rating, %
| Variant of answer |
12’10 |
03’11 |
06’11 |
09’11 |
12’11 |
03’12 |
| Do you trust the president? | ||||||
| Yes |
55.0 |
47.9 |
33.6 |
24.5 |
31.2 |
42.2 |
| No |
34.1 |
42.0 |
53.8 |
62.0 |
54.5 |
48.5 |
| Do you trust opposition political parties? | ||||||
| Yes |
16.3 |
– |
20.1 |
12.3 |
13.4 |
17.0 |
| No |
62.8 |
– |
53.3 |
59.9 |
61.6 |
61.3 |
Return of the president’s popularity is confirmed by the dynamics of answers to other indirect questions (Tables 3-4).
Table 3. Dynamics of answering the question: “Some people think that after A. Lukashenko’s resigning as president life in Belarus will improve. Others, on the contrary, think it will become worse. And what do you think?”, %
| Variant of answer |
10’10 |
09’11 |
12’11 |
03’12 |
| Life will improve |
25.3 |
35.2 |
31.7 |
26.0 |
| Life will remain the same |
28.6 |
26.9 |
29.9 |
36.5 |
| Life will become worse |
28.7 |
23.8 |
21.5 |
26.7 |
| DA/NA |
17.4 |
14.1 |
16.9 |
10.8 |
Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question: “Who is responsible for the present crisis in Belarus?”, % (more than one answer is possible)
| Variant of answer |
09’11 |
12’11 |
03’12 |
| President |
61.2 |
53.7 |
48.6 |
| Government |
41.3 |
44.6 |
46.6 |
| Parliament |
11.9 |
19.5 |
17.4 |
| Europe |
12.0 |
11.9 |
16.0 |
| USA |
16.3 |
13.8 |
12.8 |
| People |
10.0 |
10.9 |
9.9 |
| Opposition |
5.0 |
8.8 |
6.4 |
| Russia |
7.3 |
12.6 |
6.2 |
| DA |
13.4 |
16.1 |
10.1 |
The president is still considered responsible to the greatest extent, but the extent is already appreciably smaller (by the same 10 percentage points) than in September of the previous year.
The data of Table 5 explain one of the reasons. If, according to the data of Table 3, the president is the one who is most blamed for the crisis, then the hope for a way out of the crisis is also mostly (though relatively) pinned on him.
Table 5. Distribution of answers to the question: “Who do you center your hopes for a way out of the crisis on?” (more than one answer is possible)
| Variant of answer |
% |
| On the president |
35.9 |
| On Russia |
25.2 |
| On businessmen |
24.7 |
| On the government |
19.9 |
| On the West |
19.7 |
| On directors of state-owned enterprises |
12.3 |
| On opposition |
8.6 |
| On trade unions |
3.0 |
President’s popularity and support turn out to resemble a children’s toy – the tilting doll: it falls, “bends” (using A. Lukashenko’s favorite expression) in the situation of an acute crisis, but it tends to return to the previous position when the “bottom” of the crisis proves to be passed.
Without getting into argument about the objective condition of national economy and its prospects, let us only note that the “bottom” of the crisis has been passed, at least in the perception of public conscience. Our readers can find more detailed materials on the subject in the article “The crisis is not an obstacle to hopes”. Let us only repeat some of its data here (Tables 6-9).
Table 6. Dynamics of answering the question: “How has your personal financial standing changed for the last three months?”, %
| Variant of answer |
06’11 |
09’11 |
12’11 |
03’12 |
| It has improved |
1.6 |
5.1 |
7.1 |
15.3 |
| It has not changed |
23.2 |
20.0 |
31.3 |
43.4 |
| It has become worse |
73.4 |
73.7 |
59.8 |
40.6 |
| FSI* |
–71.8 |
–68.6 |
–52.7 |
–25.3 |
* The financial standing index (the difference of positive and negative answers)
Table 7. Dynamics of answering the question: “How is the socio-economic situation going to change in Belarus within the next few years?”, %
| Variant of answer |
06’11 |
09’11 |
12’11 |
03’12 |
| It is going to improve |
11.9 |
12.9 |
17.1 |
22.5 |
| It is not going to change |
20.3 |
24.1 |
24.8 |
34.4 |
| It is going to become worse |
55.5 |
52.7 |
45.0 |
32.7 |
| EI* |
–43.6 |
–39.8 |
–27.9 |
–10.2 |
* Expectation index
Table 8. Dynamics of answering the question: “Is the state of things developing in our country in the right or in the wrong direction in general?”, %
| Variant of answer |
06’11 |
09’11 |
12’11 |
03’12 |
| In the right direction |
26.1 |
17.0 |
25.6 |
35.3 |
| In the wrong direction |
61.8 |
68.5 |
55.7 |
52.5 |
| DA/NA |
12.1 |
14.5 |
18.7 |
12.2 |
| PCI* |
–35.7 |
–51.5 |
–30.1 |
–17.2 |
* Policy correctness index
Table 9. Dynamics of answering the question: “Do you think that Belarusian economy is in crisis?”, %
| Variant of answer |
06’11 |
09’11 |
12’11 |
03’12 |
| Yes |
81.5 |
87.6 |
81.5 |
77.2 |
| No |
8.4 |
8.0 |
8.0 |
15.1 |
| DA/NA |
10.1 |
4.4 |
10.5 |
7.7 |
As it can be seen, the balance of indicators of the financial standing assessments and of prospects of the socio-economic situation development remains negative; however, it has improved many-fold in comparison with the previous year.
The data of Table 10 show how improvement in perception of the economic situation influenced the change in A. Lukashenko’s popularity. For reference we have taken the data of September, 2011 when the fall in his popularity was maximal.
Table 10. Dynamics of attitude between popularity of the president and assessments of the socio-economic situation*, %
| Variant of answer |
Trust the president |
Ready to vote for A. Lukashenko at the presidential election |
||||
|
09’11 |
03’12 |
09’11 |
03’12 |
|||
|
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
|||
| How has your financial standing changed for the last three months? | ||||||
| It has improved |
64.0 |
29.3 |
65.7 |
22.2 |
61.8 |
52.8 |
| It has not changed |
46.7 |
37.7 |
44.1 |
45.3 |
36.5 |
35.7 |
| It has become worse |
15.5 |
71.1 |
31.0 |
62.1 |
13.6 |
26.2 |
| How is the socio-economic situation going to change in Belarus within the next few years, in your opinion? | ||||||
| It is going to improve |
46.9 |
41.8 |
75.2 |
15.6 |
34.5 |
61.5 |
| It is not going to change |
43.8 |
43.8 |
43.4 |
47.6 |
35.5 |
32.8 |
| It is going to become worse |
11.3 |
77.2 |
18.4 |
73.7 |
10.7 |
14.5 |
| Do you think that Belarusian economy is in crisis? | ||||||
| Yes |
19.9 |
67.0 |
32.6 |
57.6 |
16.0 |
27.6 |
| No |
70.0 |
20.0 |
83.3 |
12.3 |
62.5 |
63.6 |
| Is the state of things developing in our country in the right or in the wrong direction in general? | ||||||
| In the right direction |
74.6 |
16.8 |
84.8 |
8.1 |
66.5 |
70.0 |
| In the wrong direction |
10.4 |
77.8 |
13.6 |
80.3 |
7.9 |
12.2 |
* The table is read across
As it can be seen, an increase in popularity of the president did happen partly due to improvement in perception of the socio-economic situation. Thus the shares of those who trust him among respondents whose financial standing has improved or has not changed for the last three months remained in March, 2012 exactly the same as they had been in September, 2011. However, their “filling” has changed: the number of respondents who noted that their well-being had remained the same or had improved, has considerably grown for six months.
The data of Table 10 show, though, that it is not the only reason. A growth in president’s popularity is also being observed in the groups of pessimists, e.g. among those who noted that their standing had become worse for the previous three months, and the share of those who trusted the president had increased twofold for half a year. They felt bad at that time, they feel bad now too, but their attitude to the president has appreciably improved: they either do not feel as bad as they used to last September, or other factors affected their attitude.
Perhaps the fact that people do not see any alternative inner forces which could help them overcome the difficulties has become the additional factor. As for the outside forces, during the last months A. Lukashenko has managed to a considerable degree to associate with himself support on the part of Russia.
Table 11. Attitude of answers to the questions about the people responsible for the crisis and the ones whom the citizens pin their hopes for the way out of the crisis on*, %
| Variant of answer |
“Who do you center your hopes for a way out of the crisis on?” |
|||||||
|
On the president |
On Russia |
On businessmen |
On the government |
On the West |
On directors of public enterprises |
On opposition |
On trade unions |
|
| President |
15.4 |
32.1 |
39.2 |
12.6 |
32.5 |
11.9 |
16.7 |
3.8 |
| Government |
30.0 |
32.0 |
36.7 |
15.8 |
26.5 |
16.4 |
12.4 |
3.7 |
| Parliament |
21.8 |
37.4 |
47.7 |
10.3 |
33.1 |
16.8 |
13.4 |
6.1 |
| Europe |
76.1 |
16.9 |
13.2 |
43.0 |
8.3 |
22.7 |
0.8 |
2.9 |
| USA |
79.3 |
16.1 |
10.4 |
44.0 |
8.3 |
16.6 |
0 |
5.2 |
| People |
38.3 |
27.3 |
24.7 |
21.5 |
14.8 |
22.7 |
10.7 |
7.3 |
| Opposition |
82.5 |
27.8 |
15.5 |
24.7 |
8.2 |
17.5 |
1.0 |
5.1 |
| Russia |
72.8 |
10.8 |
19.4 |
34.4 |
21.5 |
17.2 |
5.4 |
2.2 |
* The table is read across
As the data of Table 11 prove, even among those who blame the president for the crisis, only 15.4% of respondents stake their hopes on him. By the way, among those who do not lay the blame for the crisis on the president, 79.2% hope that he will help the country out of the crisis. Nevertheless it is important to mention that even those who blame the authorities (the president, the government, the parliament) for the crisis do not see a savior in any other articulated force. The fact that almost in all the groups blaming foreign countries for the crisis, hopes for A. Lukashenko are virtually universal also draws attention to itself. It should be mentioned that in all the “blame groups” except one hopes anchored on Russia are greater than the ones pinned on the West.
The data of Table 12 show how the level of support of the president has changed inside the socio-demographic groups for six months.
Table 12. Dynamics of attitude between support of the president and socio-demographic characteristics, %
| Variant of answer |
Trust the president |
Ready to vote for A. Lukashenko at the presidential election |
||||
|
09’11 |
03’12 |
09’11 |
03’12 |
|||
|
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
|||
| Gender: | ||||||
| Male |
17.6 |
69.7 |
33.7 |
57.4 |
13.1 |
25.4 |
| Female |
30.2 |
55.5 |
49.2 |
41 |
26.6 |
42.1 |
| Age: | ||||||
| 18-29 |
18.9 |
68.3 |
26.4 |
60.7 |
14.7 |
22.2 |
| 30-59 |
18.1 |
69.0 |
35.6 |
56.0 |
12.9 |
27.9 |
| 60+ |
45.3 |
38.9 |
74.0 |
18.2 |
44.3 |
62.5 |
| Education: | ||||||
| Primary |
71.1 |
15.5 |
91.7 |
2.1 |
76.0 |
76.3 |
| Incomplete secondary |
39.8 |
45.4 |
61.7 |
27.1 |
38.2 |
50.5 |
| Secondary |
22.0 |
65.2 |
41.1 |
49.1 |
18.6 |
30.5 |
| Vocational |
19.5 |
68.9 |
37.8 |
52.9 |
15.2 |
29.7 |
| Higher (including incomplete higher) |
16.0 |
67.1 |
28.4 |
62.6 |
7.5 |
29.8 |
| Status: | ||||||
| Private sector employees |
11.1 |
77.6 |
25.4 |
65.9 |
7.0 |
16.9 |
| Public sector employees |
19.4 |
65.6 |
36.2 |
53.9 |
15.3 |
29.5 |
| Students |
28.2 |
60.0 |
29.5 |
59.1 |
16.5 |
26.7 |
| Pensioners |
45.4 |
39.3 |
71.4 |
20.6 |
42.4 |
60.9 |
| Housewives |
17.2 |
79.3 |
35.9 |
53.8 |
13.8 |
25.6 |
| The unemployed |
27.3 |
63.6 |
18.0 |
70.0 |
27.7 |
20.4 |
| Type of settlement: | ||||||
| Capital – Minsk |
19.5 |
70.9 |
28.1 |
66.4 |
21.9 |
25.3 |
| Regional center |
19.0 |
57.0 |
44.8 |
39.3 |
8.1 |
37.5 |
| City (over 50000 residents) |
28.1 |
63.1 |
44.5 |
47.7 |
19.9 |
35.3 |
| Town (less than 50000 residents) |
22.5 |
70.8 |
44.9 |
47.8 |
21.5 |
35.6 |
| Rural settlement |
30.6 |
52.5 |
47.4 |
42.6 |
28.1 |
37.5 |
| Do you use the Internet? | ||||||
| Yes, daily |
12.3 |
75.3 |
24.2 |
63.1 |
8.6 |
19.4 |
| Yes, several times a week |
16.1 |
67.3 |
28.1 |
60.6 |
12.5 |
22.6 |
| Yes, several times a month |
22.7 |
69.3 |
33.1 |
62.1 |
13.3 |
28.6 |
| Yes, several times a year |
33.3 |
26.7 |
54.5 |
42.4 |
13.3 |
54.5 |
| No |
32.4 |
54.6 |
55.1 |
36.4 |
29.0 |
44.2 |
| I do not know what it is |
72.2 |
16.7 |
90.2 |
7.3 |
70.9 |
75.6 |
* The table is read across
In essence the relative structure of sympathy towards the head of state has remained the same: women, the older generation, people with a low level of education, villagers and those who seldom use the Internet proved to be the leaders of sympathy to the president in March, 2012 just as they had supported him in September of the previous year when the group of his adherents had shrunk to the historic low. On the other hand, support of A. Lukashenko has grown virtually in all socio-demographic groups without exception. At that leaps of the trust level among the groups traditionally not inclined to support the president are impressive enough – among young people, people with higher education, Minsk residents the support has grown 1.5 times, and among frequent users of the Internet – two times.
The data of Table 13 let us see the differences in the inner structure of those who trust and do not trust the president. In the aggregate the groups make up 90.7%; exclusion of those who avoided answering seems justified as the group is rather small.
Table 13. Attitude of trust/distrust in the president with socio-demographic characteristics and political preferences, %
| Variant of answer |
Trust the president |
Distrust the president |
| Gender: | ||
|
Male |
36.3 |
53.8 |
| Female |
63.7 |
46.2 |
| Age: | ||
| 18-29 |
14.8 |
29.6 |
| 30-59 |
45.1 |
61.8 |
| 60+ |
40.2 |
8.6 |
| Education: | ||
| Primary |
13.8 |
0.3 |
| Incomplete secondary |
10.4 |
4.0 |
| Secondary |
35.6 |
37.1 |
| Vocational |
26.4 |
32.1 |
| Higher (including incomplete higher) |
13.8 |
26.5 |
| Status: | ||
| Private sector employees |
13.2 |
29.8 |
| Public sector employees |
34.1 |
44.1 |
| Students |
4.1 |
7.1 |
| Pensioners |
45.1 |
11.4 |
| Housewives |
2.2 |
2.9 |
| The unemployed |
1.4 |
4.8 |
| Type of settlement: | ||
| Capital–Minsk |
12.9 |
26.5 |
| Regional center |
19.0 |
14.5 |
| City (over 50 thousand residents) |
21.5 |
20.1 |
| Town (less than 50 thousand residents) |
17.5 |
16.1 |
| Rural settlement |
29.1 |
22.7 |
| Do you use the Internet? | ||
| Yes, daily |
15.1 |
34.2 |
| Yes, several times a week |
11.0 |
20.7 |
| Yes, several times a month |
7.5 |
12.3 |
| Yes, several times a year |
2.8 |
1.9 |
| No |
50.9 |
29.3 |
| I do not know what it is |
11.6 |
0.8 |
| How has your financial standing changed for the last three months? | ||
| It has improved |
23.7 |
7.0 |
| It has not changed |
45.4 |
40.6 |
| It has become worse |
29.9 |
52.0 |
| How is the socio-economic situation going to change in Belarus within the next few years, in your opinion? | ||
| It is going to improve |
40.1 |
7.2 |
| It is not going to change |
35.4 |
33.7 |
| It is going to become worse |
14.3 |
49.7 |
| Do you think Belarusian economy is in crisis? | ||
| Yes |
59.7 |
91.7 |
| No |
29.7 |
3.8 |
| Is the state of things in our country developing in general in the right or in the wrong direction? | ||
| In the right direction |
71.0 |
5.9 |
| In the wrong direction |
17.0 |
87.1 |
| Who is responsible for the present crisis in Belarus? | ||
| President |
12.2 |
81.9 |
| Government |
27.0 |
6.3 |
| Parliament |
20.6 |
5.9 |
| Europe |
8.2 |
11.8 |
| USA |
12.4 |
1.6 |
| People |
9.3 |
3.4 |
| If, in your opinion, the state of things in our country is developing in general in the wrong direction, who should return the country to the right course? | ||
| Progressively thinking representatives of the present leadership (working in the bodies of state administration) |
5.0 |
11.5 |
| Representatives of the Belarusian opposition |
0.8 |
8.1 |
| President A. Lukashenko himself has to change his policy |
8.2 |
16.0 |
| Progressively thinking representatives of the society, connected neither with the government authorities, nor with the opposition |
3.0 |
48.4 |
| President Alexander Lukashenko announced in February that the pay level of working people that had existed before the crisis would be restored within a year or a year and a half. Do you believe it will happen? | ||
| Yes, I do |
66.9 |
9.6 |
| No, I do not |
24.8 |
85.2 |
| What would you prefer for Belarus? | ||
| Market economy with a slight government control |
26.1 |
63.9 |
| Market economy with a considerable government control |
34.9 |
14.6 |
| State-planned economy |
20.9 |
8.6 |
| Have you or your relatives gone abroad to earn money for the last five years? | ||
| Yes |
29.4 |
43.9 |
| Would you like the USSR to be restored? | ||
| Yes |
34.3 |
16.0 |
| No |
54.7 |
77.4 |
| To what extent, in your opinion, does the state fulfill its obligations owed to the citizens of Belarus? | ||
| It fulfills them in full |
13.2 |
0 |
| It mostly fulfills them |
47.1 |
8.1 |
| Equally – it fulfills as much as it does not |
28.1 |
31.1 |
| It mostly does not fulfill them |
9.9 |
42.5 |
| It does not fulfill them at all |
0.8 |
17.3 |
| Do you trust the following public and state institutions? | ||
| Government |
81.0 |
1.9 |
| Law courts |
74.6 |
12.2 |
| Militia |
69.0 |
10.7 |
| KGB |
68.1 |
10.0 |
| Human rights organizations |
48.8 |
30.4 |
| State mass media |
68.4 |
7.7 |
| Independent mass media |
26.7 |
43.1 |
| Opposition political parties |
7.8 |
27.7 |
| In January and February employees of some Belarusian enterprises withdrew from the official Trade Unions Federation and joined independent trade unions. What do you think about it? | ||
| It accomplishes nothing; independent trade unions cannot protect the rights of the working people |
12.9 |
41.3 |
| It is a right decision; only independent trade unions can protect the rights of the working people |
38.5 |
34.1 |
| It is a wrong decision; independent trade unions are a “fifth column”, hostile agents of the foreign states |
27.2 |
8.8 |
| Are you personally ready to participate in politics more actively? | ||
| Definitely, yes |
2.4 |
8.8 |
| To some extent, yes |
11.8 |
27.8 |
| More likely, no |
33.1 |
34.0 |
| Definitely, no |
51.0 |
26.8 |
| Do you feel protected from the possible arbitrary rule on the part of the authorities, militia, the State Traffic Patrol Department (STPD), the internal revenue service, law courts and other government institutions? | ||
| Definitely, yes |
26.4 |
1.8 |
| More likely, yes |
50.8 |
15.9 |
| More likely, no |
16.4 |
46.8 |
| Definitely, no |
3.3 |
33.0 |
| Do you consider yourself to be in opposition to the present authorities? | ||
| Yes |
2.2 |
44.9 |
| No |
92.1 |
40.6 |
| In Belarus parliamentary elections are going to be held in half a year. Will you participate in them? | ||
| Yes |
64.5 |
34.4 |
| No |
9.1 |
26.2 |
| I do not know, I will decide later |
26.1 |
39.5 |
| Are you for or against the abolition of death penalty in the republic of Belarus? | ||
| For the abolition |
42.8 |
57.8 |
| Against the abolition |
48.9 |
32.5 |
| What events of the XX century can Belarusians be proud of to the greatest extent, in your opinion? | ||
| Victory in the Great Patriotic war |
79.9 |
79.5 |
| Acquisition of state independence in 1991 |
37.6 |
34.2 |
| Postwar reconstruction and subsequent industrialization |
42.2 |
28.0 |
| Formation of the Belarusian People’s Republic |
10.4 |
13.4 |
| Electing A. Lukashenko president of Belarus in 1994 |
25.3 |
1.1 |
| Formation of Belarusian Soviet Socialist Republic |
11.2 |
6.6 |
| October revolution of 1917 |
6.6 |
8.6 |
| Western countries are trying to make Belarusian authorities release the people convicted for participation in manifestations after the election of 2010. Various opinions are expressed on this subject. Which of them do you agree with? | ||
| These people are not guilty of anything, they should be released regardless of the wishes of the West |
17.0 |
69.9 |
| These people are guilty and let them serve their terms of imprisonment; we should not yield to the pressure of other countries |
19.8 |
15.2 |
| These people are guilty, however they should be released in order to improve our relations with the West |
42.7 |
5.2 |
| If you had to choose between integration with Russia and joining the European Union, what would you choose? | ||
| Integration with Russia |
67.5 |
30.1 |
| Joining the European Union |
15.6 |
57.1 |
| Last year Belarus completely sold the gas-transport system “Beltransgaz” to Russia. What is your attitude to the transaction? | ||
| It is positive |
19.7 |
11.2 |
| It is negative |
44.7 |
61.6 |
| It makes no difference to me |
23.6 |
18.2 |
| The EU and the USA are extending sanctions against the leadership of Belarus– now over 300 of Belarusian officials, judges and others headed by A. Lukashenko, who are held responsible for breaching democracy and human rights will be forbidden these countries. Some people think it is a good idea, others – it is a bad one. And what is your opinion? | ||
| It is good |
6.9 |
40.8 |
| It is bad |
48.0 |
19.6 |
| It makes no difference to me |
39.6 |
34.7 |
| Some politicians in Belarus and in the West urge not to hold the world hockey championship in 2014 in Belarus if by that time human rights violations do not cease in the country. What is your attitude to the suggestion? | ||
| It is positive |
5.3 |
19.7 |
| It is negative |
50.6 |
42.7 |
| It makes no difference to me |
40.3 |
33.9 |
| In what country, in your opinion, are elections more honest – in Belarus or in Russia? | ||
| Elections are more honest in Belarus |
26.6 |
3.3 |
| Elections are equally honest in both countries |
46.1 |
4.5 |
| Elections are equally dishonest in both countries |
12.3 |
50.7 |
| Elections are more honest in Russia |
4.7 |
33.5 |
As it follows from Table 2, the groups of those who trust and do not trust the president are almost equal in numbers: 42.2% – trust and 48.5% – do not trust. However, this is perhaps the only thing they have in common. The impression is that these are two different societies that live side by side. As far as the majority of positions is concerned, their assessments differ in dozens of percentage points, at times several-fold; on many questions the positions are contrary.
The asymmetry also consists in the following: those who trust the president have a well-known leader; however, those who do not trust him do not have such a representative. Only a little bit more than a quarter of respondents who do not trust the president, trust the opposition; and only 8% of them consider it the change engine. On the other hand, half of those who do not trust the president hope for some “third force” – “progressively thinking representatives of the society, connected neither with the government authorities, nor with the opposition”. It is difficult to say, to what extent it is a rational reckoning, and to what extent it is just a dream in the hopeless situation about a different better life and a peculiar Prince Charming.
The unity is apparent only in appraisals of history: the importance of victory in the Great Patriotic war and of independence acquired in 1991 is assessed almost equally by both parts of the Belarusian society. There is a chasm between them as far as everything else is concerned.
In our opinion, the data of Table 13 substantially refute the theories that A. Lukashenko’s rating in opinion polls is to a considerable degree conditioned by the fear factor: people are allegedly afraid to express their distrust in the authoritarian ruler. What stands out is an extremely high degree of the answers’ ideological conformity, as well as dependence of the attitude to the president on the attitude to dozens of other political plots.
It is difficult to assume that a person can declare for integration with Russia, blame the USA for the crisis, say that his life has improved and hope for its further improvement, and at the same time be insincere saying that he does not trust A. Lukashenko. The person really trusts him exactly because he holds such an opinion about the world, and A. Lukashenko plays the role of a peculiar focus of such an opinion. Precisely due to the fact that there are enough people with such views in the Belarusian society, the “tilting doll” effect is observed in the changes of the president’s rating: an appalling economic shock, a grudge held against the leader for a while deprive him of a part of support; however, as soon as the situation improves a little (or seems to improve), the stable complex of certain ideas about the world and society returns its bearers to its mouthpiece in the person of A. Lukashenko.
Those who adhere to other directly opposite in essence ideas and values have to wait for the one able to put the ideas and values into life.