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THE CRISIS IS NOT AN OBSTACLE TO HOPES

Analyzing in December dynamics of social indices we noted that the September timid hint of growth in the positive attitude had taken shape of a clear-cut tendency in December. In March the clear tendency continued its triumphant tread. All three indices still remain in the negative zone (Tables 1-3); however, not much is left till the zero level corresponding to the formal parity of positive and negative assessments.

According to the absolute value the financial standing index had sunk lower than the rest (–71.8 percentage points in June, 2011), and naturally it grew more appreciably than its colleagues. Official statistics confirm the objective character of such a growth. Real wages negative dynamics again gave place to the positive ones: in February real wages grew by 1.4% in comparison with January. However, in January and February they decreased by 1.5% relative to the similar period of the previous year, but public opinion is not able to compare fullness of its purses along such a short period of time. Taking into account the dollarization level of Belarusian economy, ruble strengthening should be regarded as an important factor of social indices’ growth. Mass round-up of dollars ceased and foreign-currency deposits of individual persons started growing again. In February they added 4.7% having brought thus their overall volume up to $ 4.68 billion. A mere nothing remains until the historic high ($ 4.96 billion) and it is going to be exceeded within the next few days.

Table 1. Dynamics of answering the question: “How has your personal financial standing changed for the last three months?”, %

Variant of answer

12’10

03’11

06’11

09’11

12’11

03’12

It has improved

24.9

17.2

1.6

5.1

7.1

15.3

It has not changed

57.7

54.8

23.2

20.0

31.3

43.4

It has become worse

16.0

26.9

73.4

73.7

59.8

40.6

FSI*

8.9

–3.7

–71.8

–68.6

–52.7

–25.3

* Financial standing index (the difference of positive and negative answers)

Together with the positive economic statistics hopes for a promising future are returning to Belarusians (Table 2). If in June, 2011 the share of pessimists exceeded a half, then in March it turned out to be a bit less than a third. The share of those who think that socio-economic situation in the country is not going to change within the next few years has considerably increased for the last three months (+9.6 points). It is a special reserve for optimists, as well as for pessimists. Which camp they are going to defect to will be in many respects determined by the ability of the authorities to meet the undertaken social commitments.

Table 2. Dynamics of answering the question: “How is the socio-economic situation going to change in Belarus within the next few years?”, %

Variant of answer

12’10

03’11

06’11

09’11

12’11

03’12

It is going to improve

30.6

29.2

11.9

12.9

17.1

22.5

To is not going to change

40.7

42.0

20.3

24.1

24.8

34.4

It is going to become worse

17.2

23.0

55.5

52.7

45.0

32.7

EI*

13.4

6.2

–43.6

–39.8

–27.9

–10.2

* Expectations index

The policy correctness index (PCI) traditionally differs from the FSI and EI by a greater lag effect, that is why it reached its historic low not in June, but three months later – in September (Table 3). It owes its present growth mainly to the decrease in the share of respondents who avoided answering. However, 12.2% of those who found it difficult to answer is the minimum for the question so complicated for public opinion. Hence a further growth in the PCI is possible only by means of a direct “requalification” of the country’s official development course opponents into its supporters. As the experience of observation of many years confirms, the share of the official course stable opponents makes up about 30%; that is why the reserve for the PCI growth is far from being exhausted.

Table 3. Dynamics of answering the question: “Is the state of things in our country developing in general in the right or in the wrong direction, in your opinion?”, %

Variant of answer

12’10

03’11

06’11

09’11

12’11

03’12

In the right direction

54.2

45.3

26.1

17.0

25.6

35.3

In the wrong direction

32.5

40.0

61.8

68.5

55.7

52.5

DA/NA

13.3

14.7

12.1

14.5

18.7

12.2

PCI*

21.7

5.3

–35.7

–51.5

–30.1

–17.2

* Policy correctness index

A reduction in the positive answers to the question: “Do you think that Belarusian economy is in crisis?” also continued (Table 4). However, the number of such answers still remains quite large, i.e. the overwhelming majority of Belarusians consider that the crisis has not been overcome in spite of the steady growth in the social indices. Perhaps, the given discrepancy should be regarded as another illustration of the Belarusian society’s ability to negative adaptation: yes, economy is in crisis, however, financial standing is improving and hopes for its further improvement are getting stronger!

Table 4. Dynamics of answering the question: “Do you think Belarusian economy is in crisis?”, %

Variant of answer

06’11

09’11

12’11

03’12

Yes

81.5

87.6

81.5

77.2

No

8.4

8.0

8.0

15.1

DA/NA

10.1

4.4

10.5

7.7

Another portion of Russian subsidies received as payment for A. Lukashenko’s consent to support integration initiatives of the “big brother” made it possible to stabilize economy which led to a growth in social indices. However, a one-time increase in subsidies has a one-time effect. The Belarusian economic model does not have its own source of growth, but the authorities have to constantly increase the population’s income growth. Such is the secrete rule of the social contract, as Belarusian authoritarian power does not have any other sources of legitimacy. It is quite possible that closer to the end of the year the subsidized resource of economic growth will be exhausted and the present trend in social indices will change its sign.