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RESULTS OF THE NATION OPINION POLL CONDUCTED IN FEBRUARY OF 2006

(1430 persons interviewed, margin of error does not exceed 0.03)

 

1. What problems are the most topical for you when it comes to taking decision in favor of a presidential candidate? (more than one answer is possible)

Variant of answer

%

General standard of living

44.2

Rise in prices

31.8

Improvement of healthcare

24.8

Employment

23.1

Democratization and independence in Belarus

18.1

Payment of retirement pensions

15.4

Corruptibility in the society

9.4

Crime

8.8

Relations with Russia

8.4

Education

7.7

Relations with the West

5.3

Freedom of religion

1.5

2. In his election pledges of 2001, A. Lukashenko stated that the average wages for Belarus would increase five-fold by the year 2006. In your opinion, has he fulfilled or not this promise?

Variant of answer

%

Yes, the average wages in the country increased five-fold

23.8

No, the average wages ni the country has not increased five-fold

57.9

DA/NA

18.3

3. How would you generally evaluate your standard of living?

Variant of answer

%

Very good

1.8

Rather good

16.1

Average

57.6

Rather bad

16.9

Very Bad

6.7

DA/NA

0.9

4. Exit polls are presently conducted in many countries during elections or referenda so as to compare their results with the official ones. Such polls were as well conducted in Belarus during the referendum of October 17, 2004. Would you like to have them during the presidential election of March 19 and have their results publicized?

Variant of answer

%

Yes

53.0

No

17.3

Doesn’t make difference as I’m not interested in this

23.5

DA/NA

6.2

5. In your opinion, is the Orange Revolution possible in Belarus like it happened in Ukraine?

Variant of answer

%

Yes

12.0

No

76.8

DA/NA

11.2

6. In your opinion, did A. Lukashenko performed his presidential duties so well that he should be re-elected, or you rather think it is time to give chance to some other candidate?

Variant of answer

%

Re-elect A. Lukashenko

53.4

Give chance to a new candidate

37.0

DA/NA

9.6

7. What is your opinion about people’s readiness in Belarus to express their political standpoints?

Variant of answer

%

No one is afraid to express political viewpoints

23.7

Few people are afraid

23.2

Many people are afraid

32.2

All are afraid

13.5

DA/NA

7.4

8. Which statement given below do you agree with?

Variant of answer

%

Central Election Commission in Belarus is the body following president’s regulations first of all

43.9

Central Election Commission in Belarus is an unbiased body following the law only

42.4

DA/NA

13.7

9. Will you come to vote at the presidential election on March 19?

Variant of answer

%

I will surely come to vote

48.4

Most likely, I will come to vote

31.6

Perhaps, I will and perhaps I will not come to voting

12.3

Most likely, I will not come to vote

4.1

I surely won’t come to vote

2.3

DA/NA

1.3

10. In you opinion, will the presidential election of March 19 be free and fair?

Variant of answer

%

Yes

54.9

No

32.1

DA/NA

13.0

11. What is your attitude to the politicians listed below?

Political Figure

Very positive

Rather positive

Rather negative

Very negative

Haven’t heard anything about him

DA/NA

S. Gaidukevich, Deputy of the House of Representatives, Chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party

3.1

20.8

26.3

11.1

19.6

19.1

А. Kozulin, former Head of the Belarusian State University, Chairman of the Belarusian Social Democratic Party (Gromada)

2.9

22.8

20.8

7.2

29.8

16.5

А. Lukashenko, President of Belarus

31.8

34.0

16.5

13.4

0.6

3.7

А. Milinkevich, former Vice Mayor of Grodno and activist of the civic movement, elected sole candidate for democratic forces in Belarus

6.5

26.2

21.9

8.1

20.3

17.0

12. For whom would you vote at the presidential election if the following four candidates appear on the ballot?

Variant of answer

%

S. Gaidukevich

4.5

А. Kozulin

6.4

А. Lukashenko

58.6

А. Milinkevich

16.5

None of them

6.0

DA/NA

8.0

13. For whom would you vote at the presidential election if the following three candidates appear on the ballot?

Variant of answer

%

S. Gaidukevich

4.9

А. Lukashenko

57.9

А. Milinkevich

21.1

None of them

7.7

DA/NA

8.4

14. For whom would you vote at the presidential election if the following three candidates appear on the ballot?

Variant of answer

%

S. Gaidukevich

7.2

А. Kozulin

12.8

А. Lukashenko

58.5

None of them

12.8

DA/NA

8.7

15. If only one candidate competes with A. Lukashenko at the presidential election, would you vote for him or for A. Lukashenko?

Variant of answer

%

I would vote for an alternative candidate

30.6

I would vote for A. Lukashenko

58.9

DA/NA

10.5

16. If only one candidate competes with A. Lukashenko at the presidential election, who of the following politicians would you like to see on the ballot?

Variant of answer

%

S. Gaidukevich

13.5

А. Kozulin

10.3

А. Milinkevich

26.6

None of them

30.5

DA/NA

19.1

17. For whom of the presidential candidates wouldn’t you vote under any circumstances?

Variant of answer

%

S. Gaidukevich

19.0

А. Kozulin

12.3

А. Lukashenko

23.8

А. Milinkevich

12.9

None of them

10.7

DA/NA

21.3

(Respondent has chosen a candidate for whom he/she is going to vote and a candidate for whom he/she won’t vote under any circumstances)
18. Are you positive about this or you may still change your opinion?

Variant of answer

%

Absolutely positive

57.3

May change my opinion

26.1

DA/NA

16.6

19. Do you think presidential candidates have the same access to the state-run mass media as A. Lukashenko has?

Variant of answer

%

Yes

34.0

No

55.3

DA/NA

10.7

20. Have you received any leaflets about presidential candidates or met with their representatives?

Variant of answer

%

Yes

47.1

No

50.1

NA

2.8

21. If you have received or met, about whom and with whose representatives then? (more than one answer is possible)

Variant of answer

%

А. Lukashenko

29.2

А. Milinkevich

29.9

А. Kozulin

16.5

S. Gaidukevich

13.6

Refused to answer

7.1

Don’t remember (find it difficult to answer)

7.9

22. Do you have enough information about candidates to be sure about your choice?

Variant of answer

%

Yes

43.3

No

55.3

NA

1.4

23. Will you have more trust to the results of this presidential election if independent observers are present at the election?

Variant of answer

%

Yes

62.5

No

26.2

DA/NA

11.3

24. Can voting results be trusted if representatives for opposition were not presented in the election commission?

Variant of answer

%

Yes

49.6

No

40.1

DA/NA

10.3

25. If you decide that the presidential election is rigged what will you most likely do?

Variant of answer

%

Accept the results as they cannot be changed

37.1

Join mass protests to try and change the results

9.2

Will not believe the results and will feel frustrated, but I will not take part in mass actions of protest

34.9

DA/NA

18.8

26. If the presidential election takes place tomorrow in Belarus, for whom would you vote? (open question)

Variant of answer

%

А. Lukashenko

57.6

А. Milinkevich

15.4

А. Kozulin

5.2

S. Gaidukevich

4.3

Other politician (7 names, under 0.5% each)

1.1

Other variant of answer

2.2

DA/NA

14.2