1. Unstable stabilization which IISEPS wrote about describing the “economic feeling” of Belarusians last year has revealed a positive trend in the second quarter of the current year again:
• The ratio of those whose financial standing has improved for the last three months to those whose financial standing has become worse increased from 13.3% vs. 28.7% in March to 13.7 vs. 21.6% in June (“has not changed” was 56.4%, became 63.1%).
• The number of those who consider Belarusian economy to be in crisis has also decreased: if in March 64.8% thought so, then today 59.8% (at that time 24.6% stuck to the opposite opinion, today 29.5%).
• The population’s real income has begun to grow again: if in December the mean income (including salaries, pensions, allowances and other extra earnings) which accrued to a family member made up $ 275 and $ 250 in March, then in June it equaled $ 280.
• The number of those who think that “in general the state of things in our country is developing in the right direction” has decreased in comparison with those who give a different answer: in March the ratio was 51.4% vs. 34.5%, today it is 45.5% vs. 39.6%.
• Belarusians began to look to the future somewhat more optimistically: if in March 15.3% of respondents thought that “the socio-economic situation in Belarus would improve within the next few years”, and 27.3% – that it would become worse, then today the ratio has become 17.7% vs. 23.7% (at that time 44.7% considered that “the situation would not change”, today – 49.1%).
• At the same time, the number of negative assessments considerably exceeds the number of positive ones as far as all the indices are concerned. Characterizing one’s economic situation 45.7% of respondents said they “could hardly make both ends meet; there was not enough money even for food” or “had enough money for food, however purchasing clothes caused serious difficulties”, another 45.3% said they “had enough money for food and clothes, however purchasing durables was a problem”, only 8.3% “could buy durables without difficulty”, and only 0.6% – “could afford rather expensive purchases – an apartment, a summer cottage, etc.”
2. In spite of the trend, on the whole the image of the state as the main mouthpiece of the people’s interests and their protector becomes more and more “pale”:
• On the one hand, improvement in the “economic feeling” entailed some improvement in the attitude of Belarusians to the authorities. In particular, the level of trust in the government rose: if in March 35.6% of respondents trusted them, and 48.3% did not, today the ratio has become 39.9% vs. 46.6%. Over 50% agree with the president’s recent statement that “Belarusian economy needs modernization, not a cardinal change of the model” (37.7% do not agree with it).
• On the other hand, numerous facts speak about the instability and fragility of this connection. For instance, only a fourth of respondents agree with A. Lukashenko’s statement made in the April address to the Belarusian people and the National Assembly, that “in 2013 the growth in consumer prices did not exceed 12%” (over 56% do not agree with it), less than 40% – that “crisis phenomena have retreated in our country, and economy is consistently moving forward” (almost half of respondents do not agree with it).
• The authorities already cannot go far astride their pet subject – fight against corruption – either. Thus only 30.2% of Belarusians agree that the president can succeed in fighting against corruption, 27.8% think that “he will hardly be able to achieve much success as corruption in Belarus is ineradicable”, 19.3% – “he himself depends on corrupt officials to a large extent”, and 18.2% – “he will not seriously fight against corruption in any case as he is interested in it someway or other”.
• Assessing people who hold power at the moment, the majority of respondents (44.4%) think that “these are people preoccupied with their material well-being and career”, 15.3% – “these are honest, but weak people, not able to manage power and keep the peace and a consistent line of policy” (in March, 2009 – 12.7%), 13.8% – “these are honest but ignorant people who do not know how to lead the country out of the crisis” (in March, 2009 – 11.9%), and only13.4% – “it is a good team of politicians leading the country in the right direction” (in March, 2009 – 17.3%).
• The opinion that the authorities are not only ignorant and corrupt, but also unjust and “not ours” begins to dominate in society: over half of respondents do not agree that “the state’s policy is formed based on the interests of millions of citizens, and not of the narrow strata of the elite” (36.7% agree with it). Assessing the state built under A. Lukashenko only a third of respondents believe that “this is my state, it protects my interests”, 45.2% – “this is partly my state, it does not sufficiently protect the interests of such people as me”, and 15.5% – “this is not my state, it does not protect my interests, I do not trust it”.
3. However, as it has been mentioned before, this sentiment is not directly shifted on to head of state; the resource of public trust in him is far from being exhausted. Moreover, an increase in the “economic feeling” in the second quarter had a positive impact on the attitude to the president, too:
• If in March the number of those who trusted and did not trust the president was the same (43.4% vs. 43.2%), then today there are more of those who trust him than of those who do not: 48.9% vs. 40.6%.
• His electoral rating continues to grow gradually: if in December 31.5% were ready to vote for him in a new presidential election, and in March 33.4%, then today – 37.3% (according to the close-end question, even 40.9%).
• However, “inflation” of the presidential rating with electoral expectations is changing appreciably. For instance, if before the majority of respondents pinned their hopes for Belarus economic development on the president, then in recent years – on attraction of foreign capital: today 51.6% of respondents pin their hopes on it, and on the president – 33.8% (in 1994 – 26.6% vs. 48.7%, in 2008 – 44.4% vs. 37.4%).
4. Against a relative improvement in the “economic feeling” readiness of society for changes, including support of the opposition, remains low:
• Today 15.4% of respondents trust opposition political parties, and 65.2% do not (in March there were 13.1% vs. 60.9%). V. Neklyaev’s electoral rating makes up 5.4%, A. Sannikov’s – 3.4%, A. Milinkevich’s – 2.3%, N. Statkevich’s – 1.4%, A. Lebedko’s – 0.5% (according to the close-end question 9.5%, 6%, 6%, 2.4%, 1.5% respectively).
• Defining one’s attitude to politics only 5.4% said “my life depends on politics, I take active part in it” (in March 5.1% answered that they were “definitely ready to participate in politics more actively”), 23.7% – “my life depends on politics, but I do not participate in it because it is useless”, 11.1% – “my life depends on politics, but I do not participate in it because it is dangerous”, 22.5% – “my life does not depend on politics much”, and 34.2% are not interested in politics at all.
• At the same time, as it has been already mentioned before, there are ways for changes supporters’ possible work. Judging by the data of numerous opinion polls, the principle here is rather simple: “the more the opposition turns its face to the people”, the more it can count on reciprocity. For example, a recent initiative of four opposition parties to hold a “national referendum” was received in society quite positively: 52.3% of respondents think “it is necessary to hold a referendum on Belarus future development” (32% do not agree with it), 46.1% – “referendum on Belarus future may influence improvement of the situation in our country” (34.8% do not agree), 22% would agree to form part of the initiative group and help collect signatures in favor of the referendum, in case they were asked to do it (68.3% would not agree), and 72.3% think that “if political forces suggest holding a referendum on the country’s future and collect the necessary signatures, the authorities should agree to hold it” (15.2% do not agree).
5. Although the before registered trends in foreign policy orientation of Belarusians remain on the whole the same, some “warming up” in the attitude to Russia is being noted again:
• If a referendum on Belarus integration with Russia were being held today, 31.2% would vote “for” it and 46.5% of respondents – “against” (in March there were 28.1% vs. 51.4%).
• When required to make a choice between integrating with Russia and joining the European Union in a hypothetical referendum, 40.8% declare for the first option, and 41% – for the second one (in March 37.2% vs. 42.1%); in the referendum on joining the European Union 37.7% would vote “for”, and 38.1% – “against” (in March 37.9% vs. 39.2%). 39.2%).
• The majority of respondents expressed a positive attitude to the fact that guests from Russia had recently begun to visit Belarus more and more often: 31.2% – because “they are people kindred to us”, almost the same number of people – because “the more tourists, the richer the country”, 29.5% treated it with indifference, and 8.4% – “negatively, I do not like the way they behave”, and 7.8% – “negatively, they buy up our goods and houses”. However, such an attitude to the people “kindred to us” does not mean that the majority of Belarusians support deepening of military integration, too: less than 20% treated the recent statement of Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation S. Shoygu about the possibility of deployment of a Russian air force base in Belarus positively, 35.6% – with indifference, and 36% – negatively.
• Attempts of the authorities to play the “anti-West card” under such conditions do not find considerable support in society either. For example, assessing a recent statement of A. Lukashenko that “Independent Belarus constantly finds itself at gunpoint of the cannonry of an undeclared cold war. We are being strangled with sanctions, bad-mouthed with aspersion. NATO war planes fly along our borders, new military bases are being created, provocations are being committed”, only 27% agreed with it, 35.7% treated it with indifference and 28.2% did not agree with it.