THE MOST IMPORTANT RESULTS OF THE PUBLIC OPINION POLL IN SEPTEMBER 2014

 – The ratio of those whose financial standing improved over past three month to those whose standing worsened grew from 9.3% vs. 32.5% in June up to 13.5% vs. 24.6% in September. The number of Belarusians who consider country’s economy in crisis went down as well: in June 57.7% of respondents shared this opinion, while 30% shared the opposite one; today this ratio amounts to 54.2 vs. 36.5%. However, real incomes of population froze at the same level: the average income per family member amounted to $288, just like in June. While evaluating current situation, 34.2% of respondents said that “everything is not so bad, it’s possible to live”, 47.4% chose the variant “it is difficult to live, but still possible to put up with”, and 15.1% think that “it is impossible to put up with our misery anymore” (a year ago the ratio was as following: 27.3% % vs. 51.3% vs. 18%). Almost 5% of respondents assigned themselves to a group of population which “hardly make both ends meet and have not enough money even to buy food”; more than a quarter of respondents – to a group of population which “have enough money for food, but buying clothes is a real problem”; about 53% of respondents say that they “have enough money for food and clothes, but buying durable goods is a problem”. It is not surprising that most of all Belarusians fear poverty (62.4%) and health loss (43%).

  – The share of optimists who think that “socio-economic situation in Belarus within the next few years” will be better decreased from 28.7% in June down to 18.6% in September, while the number of pessimist decreased from 28.6% down to 22.5%. As a result the expectation index decreased by 3.8 points against the background of a significant increase of the financial standing index. The ratio of respondents considering that “in general the state of things in our country is developing in the right direction” and those sharing the opposite opinion haven’t changed: in June it was 42.3% vs. 42.3%, in September is equaled 43% vs. 43.5%.

  – The striving of Belarusians to earn and make career abroad is an expressive indicator of their financial state: almost in each fourth family some of its members work presently abroad and almost each third respondent thinks that “in order to make a successful career, young people should better leave for another country”.

 – On the one hand many respondents are quite skeptical about the work of state power. Thus, more people pin their hopes for economic development of Belarus on outside capital (43.5%) than on the President (37.9%) (in December the ratio was 25.7% vs. 36.8%). 37% of respondents (more than 2.5 billion of voters) do not feel protected by law. As it was noted earlier many Belarusians are concerned about corruption in state government body. A. Lukashenko suggested “to create state ideology on the basis of patriotism” in his interview to the Russian TV-channel “Dozhd”. While assessing this suggestion only 30.5% of respondents agreed, completely or partially, that “a patriot should support power whatever it may be”; two thirds of respondents share the opposite opinion. Only 20% of respondents consider that “those who criticize the work of power cannot be considered as patriots”, while 75% of respondents think that “it is possible to criticize the work of power and to be a patriot at the same time”.

 – On the other hand majority of respondents are waiting for the very power to solve those issues. For example, 56.3% of respondents are positive about the statement of the anti-corruption draft bill, according to which the control over the incomes of officials and their relatives should be strengthened (9.6% are negative about it). The proceeding of exoneration from criminal liability of high-ranking officials in case if they make triple amends to the state is also evaluated positively (34.5%) or indifferently (34.6%) (question was asked about the former head of Belneftekhim Concern I. Zhilin). The very proceeding of “manual control” is perceived as a norm of life. Thus, assessing the regular trips of the President over the country, when he visits industrial and agricultural enterprises, 41.6% of respondents think that “if he didn’t personally control the work of enterprises, many local level managers would stop working”, another 28.6% of respondents think that “sometimes he is obliged to delve into unfamiliar fields of work to better understand what happens there”, and only 28.3% of respondents suppose that “president should settle strategic issues and not substitute local level managers”.

 – The level of trust to the head of state continues to increase: 45.9% of respondents trusted him in March and 49.6% in June, while 44.1% and 39% of respondents accordingly didn’t trust him; today the ratio equals to 53.5% vs. 33.3%. His electoral rating also grew significantly: while in June it amounted to 39.8%, today it amounts to 45.2%. In view of the twentieth anniversary of A. Lukashenko’s victory in the first presidential elections in Belarus 55.7% of respondents think that Belarusian people made the right choice in 1994. About 30% of respondents share the opposite opinion. The number of people who think that life in Belarus will worsen after A. Lukashenko’s resignation in comparison with those who share the opposite opinion grew as well: in December the ratio was 25.2% vs. 24.5%, today it is 33.3% vs. 17.7%. Almost 49% of those who are waiting for changes consider that these changes are possible under A. Lukashenko’s rule, 38.4% of respondents share the opposite opinion.

 – Thus, the number of those who consider themselves involved in social activism today amounts to 17.5%, almost 40% of respondents took part in various charitable actions (another one third could take part), 18% of respondents signed petitions, letters (45.4%), the same share took part in legal protests (33.7%), about 15% of respondents provided financial support to social organizations (30.1%), over 10% of respondents pasted up ads or distributed newspapers of organizations (41%), almost 20% could take part in illegal protests.

 – At the same time only 14.1% trust oppositional parties, while 63.3% don’t. Only 21.1% of respondents think that Belarusian opposition understands issues and cares of people like them, while 60% of respondents share the opposite opinion. What could “improve the attitude to democratic forces in Belarus and raise their authority” in the eyes of the people? Almost 40% of respondents chose the variant “activities, supporting simple people”, 32% – “a convincing plan of Belarus’ development after A. Lukashenko’s resignation”, 17% – “nomination of a single candidate for the presidential elections in 2015”. The overall electoral rating of oppositional leaders doesn’t exceed 20% today (V. Neklyaev – 4.6%, N. Statkevich – 3.2%, A. Milinkevich – 2.2%, A. Sannikov – 1.6%, A. Lebedko – 1.5%). Can a candidate of democratic forces win in the presidential elections in 2015? Answering this question, the same 17% answered that he can “if he is the single candidate of democratic forces”, 12.6% think that it is possible “if he is supported by Russia”, 4.3% – “if he is supported by the West”, while 52% of respondents think “he cannot whatsoever”.

 – The most acceptable project of opposition is still the People’s Referendum: if the respondents were personally in charge for its carrying out, 45.2% would be for it and for peaceful changes in Belarus, 36% would be against.

 – In comparison to December the share of “Euro-Belarusians” dropped by 10%. At the same time the number of opponents to European integration jumped by 15%. Two quarters running the share of them exceeds 50%, and that wasn’t observed for the last five years. On a hypothetic referendum on joining the European Union 25% of respondents would vote “for” and 50.3% would vote “against” (in December it was 35.9% vs. 34.6%). In the answers to the “either… or”-question the ratio changed to a contrary one: in December the majority was for the EU (44.6% vs. 36.6%), today the majority is for the RF (32% vs. 47.2%). On a referendum about integration of Belarus and Russia 23% of respondents would vote “for” and 54.3% of respondents would vote “against” (in March it was 29.3% vs. 47.7%).

 – On the basic cultural and psychological level the absolute majority of Belarusians still consider themselves closer to Russians than to Europeans: 73.6% vs. 25.4%. But the more concrete the topics in geopolitical process are, the more cautious the attitude of Belarusians is. Thus, the number of adherents of Belarus entering NATO decreased significantly: in June 18.1% were for it and 61,8% were against it, today the ratio is 15.3% vs. 71.4%. Answering the question “If NATO countries would try to change the politics of Belarus with the help of armed forces, what would you do?” 26% of respondents said that they “would resist up in arms”, 40% would try to “adapt to the new situation” and only 9.7% “would greet these changes”. The Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Air Force V. Bondarev announced that in 2015 Russia intends to quarter in Belarus an air-base with 24 SU-27 fighters. 22.4% respondents expressed a positive attitude to it, 27.3% expressed an indifferent attitude and 45.1% – a negative attitude. Answering the question “If Russia annexed Belarus or its part, what would you do?”, 25.9% of respondents said that they “would resist up in arms”, 39.7% would “try to adapt to the new situation”, 13.3% “would greet these changes” (in June the ratio was 14.2% vs. 47.7% vs. 16.5%).

 – Thus, evaluating the annexation of Crimea by Russia, 27.2% of respondents called it “an imperialistic usurpation and occupation”, while almost 60% of respondents think that it is “a restitution of Russian lands and reestablishment of historical justice” (in June the ratio was 26.9% vs. 62.2%). The use of armed forces by Ukrainian powers for the restoration of control over Donbass is evaluated as “a lawful neutralization of an armed rebellion” by 12% of respondents; 19% think that “it is a severe, but a forced measure”, and 60.6% consider it “a crime, a war against their own people” (in June the ratio was 14% vs. 19.5% vs. 57.7%). 32.3% of respondents define the participants of armed protest in the South-East of Ukraine as “terrorists”, 54.1% of respondents don’t agree with this (in June it was 30.1% vs. 54.1%). 52.2% of respondents define Ukrainian power, which was installed after Yanukovich’s overthrow, as “fascists”, while 32.2% of respondent disagree with this definition (in June the ratio was 50.9% vs. 28.8%).

 – 24.3% of respondents said that their attitude to Russia after the events in Ukraine “became worse”, 21.9% said that it “became better”, the attitude of 51.5% of respondents “didn’t change”. The similar question regarding the attitude to the EU had the following answers: 47% – “became worse”, 5.6% – “became better”, 42.4% – “didn’t change”. Although, just like in the case of geopolitical choice, concrete topics of Ukrainian-Russian crisis are evaluated more cautiously by most Belarusians. Thus, answering the question about who is to blame for the tragedy with the passenger aircraft of Malaysian Airlines, 16.5 of respondents named participants of armed riots in the East of Ukraine, 10% – Russian power, 25% – Ukrainian power, and 48.5% “don’t know, it’s necessary to wait for the results of the investigation”. The thesis that “Russia should send its army to help the participants of armed riots in the East of Ukraine” was evaluated positively only by 14% of respondents; 21% are indifferent and 53.6% are negative about it. Only 15.2% of Belarusians agree that “if Russia takes the decision to bring troops into Ukraine” Belarus should permit Russia “to bring their troops through the Belarusian territory”. Three fourth of respondents unambiguously disagree with this. Only 6% are positive about Belarusian citizens taking part in combat operations in the East of Ukraine on the side of Ukrainian army; 8.3% – on the side of the participants of armed riots; and almost 77% have a negative attitude to this.

 – Belarusians’ evaluation of the President A. Lukashenko’s policy towards the crisis in Ukraine deserves a special attention. According to 18.2% of respondents “he completely supports the policy of Russian power”, 2.7% of respondents think that he supports “the policy of Ukrainian power”, 35.5% consider that “he maneuvers between the conflicting parties”, 36.3% think that “he maintains neutrality”. 14.8% of respondents evaluate his position “unambiguously positively”, 44.7% – “rather positively”, 17.2% – “rather negatively”, 9.6% – “unambiguously negatively”. The fact that Belarus provided ground for negotiations between a representative of Ukrainian power and the representative of participants of armed riots in the East of Ukraine was assesses negatively by 12.4% of respondents because “there should be no negotiations with terrorists” and by 11.6% of respondents because “there should be no negotiations with the fascist junta”, while 60% assed this fact positively. Despite the fact that two thirds of respondents evaluate negatively strict sanctions introduced by the West against Russia (only 20% are positive about it), 52.5% of them were positive about A. Lukashenko’s appeal to make money from this (“we have to move, to use this moment and make some money”), 30.8% were indifferent and 12.7% were negative. It’s evident that President’s position in this conflict finds recognition and support of most Belarusians, so his rating grows. The main motivation for this, as it was already said, is the striving to avoid similar conflict in Belarus at any price. Thus, in March 78% of responded answered “no” to the question “Is better future worth people’s blood?”, while only 14.1% answered “yes”. In September, answering the question “What do you fear most of all?”, 27% of respondents chose the answer “civil war” and 20% – “foreign aggression”.