THE MOST IMPORTANT RESULTS OF THE PUBLIC OPINION POLL IN JUNE 2015
(were interviewed 1.513 persons aged 18 and over, margin of error doesn’t exceed 0.03)
1. As a whole financial well-being of Belarusians remains unstable, although a certain stabilization is observed:
· Thus, the number of those, whose financial standing worsened, decreased from 46.3% in March down to 37.2% in June, while the number of those, whose financial standing improved, remained on the same level – approximately 9% (the answer “didn’t change” increased from 44% up to 51.3%). Average income per family member (including salaries, pensions, social benefits and other incomes) increased from $211 in March up to $240 in June, but still had not achieved the December level – $285. At the same time about 72% of respondents consider that Belarusian economy is in crisis, only 17% disagree with that (in March the ratio was 67.5% vs. 20%). There is also a shift of priorities among economic issues: although price hike is still on the top with 76.9%, people are more and more worried by unemployment – 55.8%, production decline – 55.8% and impoverishment of people – 49.3% (in March those shares were 84.1%, 47.2%, 50.3% and 46.8% accordingly).
· Anxiety about the future is not going away: in June 2014 26.8% of respondents expected an improvement of social and financial situation in the country in the next few years, while the same share of respondents expected an aggravation of the situation; today the number of optimists decreased down to 21.7%, and the number of pesiimists increased up to 36.5%. For example, despite power’s assurances, over 80% of Belarusians still fear another devaluation of Belarusian ruble in the next few months (72% in September 2013): 34.1% think that this is a real threat, while 46.5% think that it’s only possible. According to 34.6% of respondents “in general the state of things in our country goes in the right direction”, while 49.4% of respondents chose an answer “wrong direction” (in March the ratio was 36.9% vs. 45.8%).
2. Belarusians’ attitude to the authority remains rather skeptical in general:
· Thus, indices of trust to almost all state institutions remain negative. While evaluating people in power right now, 38.6% of respondents said that “they are people who care only about their own financial well-being and career”, and only 14.4% think that “they are a good team of politicians, and they lead country in the right direction”. Only 10.2% of respondents agreed with the recent statement of Prosecutor General Alexander Konyuk that there is no need to publish income statements of officials; 53% of respondents disagreed with him. According to 41.3% of respondents, top state officials (Ministers, Prosecutor General, Chairman of the Constitutional Court and others) should earn country-average salaries; 33.6% think that their earnings should equal 2-3 average salaries. Only several percents agree with the current level of their salaries. At the same time, 49.9% of respondents feel themselves protected from possible arbitrariness from the power, militia, State Motor Vehicle Inspectorate, internal revenue service, courts and other state institutions; 46.6% of respondents share the opposite opinion. Majority of respondents (60%) consider that in Belarus people live worse than in Western countries (30% disagree with this). According to 34.7% of respondents the main reason for this is that “our people can work as good as people in the West, it is bad state management that should be blamed” (only 19.2% mentioned lack of natural resources and only 8.5% – internal and external enemies). There is nothing surprising in the fact that only 41.2% of respondents agreed with the statement “this is my state, it protects my interests”, while 43.8% think that “this is only partially my state, it doesn’t protect enough interests of people like me”. 9.7% of respondents say that “this is not my state, it doesn’t protect my interests and I don’t trust it”. Only 27.3% of respondents agreed with A. Lukashenko’s statement that “Belarusian political system proved its efficiency; its distinguished feature is direct sovereignty of the people”, while 55.4% of respondents disagreed with that.
· Unstable financial well-being and skeptical attitude to the state power are reflected upon the attitude to the head of state. Thus, according to 40.1% of respondents, the fact that “almost all power is concentrated in A. Lukashenko’s hands is favorable for Belarus”, while 47.8% of respondents think that “there is nothing good for the country in it” (in September 2010 the ratio was 44.1% vs. 38.5%). Evaluating battling against corruption in Belarus only 27.8% choose the answer “A. Lukashenko will achieve success in battling against corruption if he makes a decisive purge of officials’ ranks and introduces more strict punishments for the crimes of the sort”. 22.8% of respondents think that “it will be difficult for A. Lukashenko to battle against corruption as he depends on corrupted officials himself”. 15.9% of respondents think that “A. Lukashenko is not going to really battle against corruption, because he is an interested party”. According to 55.3% of respondents, the President mostly relies on militaries, MIA and KGB; 48.8% – on presidential hierarchy line; 39.9% – on state officials, and only 36.6% – on retired people, 24.6% – on rural citizens, 17.4% – on simple people (in August those shares were 48.6%, 37%, 20.5%, 41.4%, 30.2%, 34.2% accordingly).
3. Belarusians’ attitude to the state power and its opponents deserves special attention in view of presidential elections coming in October:
· Millions of Belarusians expect changes. Some of them connect these changes to President A. Lukashenko, others don’t. Thus, almost a quarter of respondents think that after A. Lukashenko’s resignation from President’s position life in Belarus will become better; the same part of respondents share the opposite opinion. Almost 39% of respondents think that life will not change anyway. The most realistic and desired variants of changes are: elections according to 49% of respondents, republican referendum (28%), and only less than 10% support street protests. How do Belarusians express their interest to politics? Above all they take part in the elections (68.5%), discuss political events with their friends (44.5%), and attentively follow information on political events (34.7%); only 3.7% of respondents take part in political actions, meetings, strikes, 2.7% sign letters and petitions, 2.4% belong to political parties and movements. More than 71% of respondents express their readiness to vote on presidential elections (34.7% – “sure yes”, 36.7% – “rather yes”, 17.3% – “rather no”, 4.8% – “sure no”).
· At the same time, despite the fact that according to the Constitution of Republic of Belarus the people are the sole source of state power and the bearer of sovereignty, only 44.5% of respondents were able to give the correct answer to this question, while 48.7% of respondents answered “the President”. According to 54.5% of respondents A. Lukashenko knows where he leads Belarus, while 35.7% gave the opposite answer. Answering the question “If A. Lukashenko will run as a candidate on presidential elections for the fifth time, and he will have an adversary from democratic opposition, who would you vote for?” 37.4% of respondents chose the answer “for A. Lukashenko”, 20.6% – “for the candidate of democratic opposition”, 27% – “for neither of them” (in March those figures were 37%, 23.2% и 21% accordingly). Decrease of his electoral rating, which was observed since September, changed into an increase: in March 34.2% of respondent were ready to vote for A. Lukashenko, today this share equals 38.6%. Electoral rating (according to an open question) of V. Neklyaev today amounts to 4.7% (7.6% in March), N. Statkevich -5% (4.5%), A. Lebedko – 4.2% (2.9%), S. Gaydukevich – 3.9% (1.1%), S. Kalyakin – 3.1% (1.6%), A. Prushinsky – 1.6%, E. Anisim and T. Korotkevich – 1.1%. According to a closed question ratings equal to 38.6%, 5.7%, 6.5%, 5.4%, 5.4%, 4.4%, 2.6%, 2.4%, 2.2% accordingly. Scattered candidates, inability of opposition to come to an agreement multiplied by scattered character of Belarusian society itself (only a quarter of respondents think that “most people can be trusted”, while over 67% share the opposite opinion) doom to failure almost any political alternative today.
4. Isolationist moods prevail in foreign-policy orientations of Belarusians:
· In comparison with March the share of “Euro-Belarusians” slightly decreased. On a hypothetic referendum on joining the European Union 25.1% of respondents would vote “for” and 51% would vote “against” (in March the share was 24.6% vs. 45%). Evaluating Eastern Partnership Summit in Riga, where there was even a deeper rapprochement between the EU and Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, 40.2% of respondents said that “Belarus should change its policy and approach the EU”, 27.7% – “Belarus should not change its policy and approach the EU”, while 20.5% of respondents were indifferent towards this question. (Evaluations of December 2013 summit in Vilnius were as follows: 44.5%, 21.7%, 26.6%.) At the same time, the share of “Belo-Russians” slightly increased. On a referendum about integration of Belarus and Russia 28.3% of respondents would vote “for” and 50.9% of respondents would vote “against” (in March it was 26.3% vs. 48.9%). In the answers to the “either… or”-question in March 46.5% of respondents were for integration with Russia and 30.8% for joining the EU, today the ratio is 51.4% vs. 31.4%. Evaluating the work of national leaders, Belarusians put the President of Russia V. Putin on the first place with 60% of positive evaluations and 20.3% of negative ones; the second place is occupied by the President of Kazakhstan N. Nazarbaev – 43.7% vs. 23.8%, on the third place is the President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping – 35.4% vs. 24.2%, on the fourth – the Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel – 34.6% vs. 32%, the President of the USA B. Obama – 13.5% vs. 59.1%, the President of Ukraine P. Poroshenko – 10.1% vs. 67%. The idea of “Russian world”, which V. Putin used to base the annexation of Crimea on, is evaluated positively by almost 39% of Belarusians, 39.4% are indifferent and 15.2% are negative. The level of inclusion of Belarusians in the sphere of influence of Russian mass media is still very high: 90% of respondents watch news programs on Russian TV on a regular basis or sometimes. 12.1% think that those programs “are completely objective”, 47.8% – “mostly objective”, 20% – “mostly biased” and 6% – “completely biased” (in March it was 12.8%, 39.9%, 22.5%, 10.7%).
· Ukrainian-Russian crisis remains one of the most important factors influencing these changes in foreign-policy orientations of Belarusians. It should be noted that sympathies of the majority of Belarusians are still with Russia. For example, 62.3% of respondents evaluated the annexation of Crimea by Russia as “a restitution of Russian lands and reestablishment of historical justice”, while the share of those who think that it was “an imperialistic usurpation and occupation” amounts to 21.5% (in March the ratio was 58.5% vs. 22%). 47.4% of respondents support the independence of Novorossiya and consider that “its people have a right for self-determination”, 27% of respondents support territorial integrity of Ukraine, while 10.5% consider that “there is no Novorossiya, there is just a Russian aggression against Ukraine” (42%, 25.5%, 15.9% in March). Answering the question “If Russia tried to annex Belarus or its part with the help of armed forces, what would you do?”, 18.7% of respondents said that they would “resist up in arms”, 52.8% would “try to adapt to a new situation”, and 12.1% would “greet these changes” (18.7%, 47.1%, 15% in March). The answers to the question “If NATO countries tried to annex Belarus or its part with the help of armed forces, what would you do?” were divided as follows: 30.6%, 46%, 6.1% accordingly (23.3%, 45.3%, 9.7% in March). Majority of respondents still evaluate A. Lukashenko’s position towards the crisis in Ukraine as “unambiguously/rather positively” (in March the number was 65.3%, today it is 61.5%), while the share of answers “rather/ unambiguously negatively” is notably lower (24.3% in March vs. 23.7% today).