E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 9, 2007 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)
Content:
Introduction
1. Basic trends of September
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Economics
3.1. A little bit of statistics
3.2. Big problems of mini heat and power plants
3.3. A multi-millionaire from Luxemburg
4. Finances
4.1. Good-bye, everyone
5. Politics
5.1. A revision attempt
5.2. No changes at the western front
5.3. Case history
5.4. September infinite lawlessness
5.5. A dialogue with authorities
6. Good news
7. Our forecast for October
8. From the IISEPS Desktop
Introduction:
Dear readers!
Our forecast for September ended in the following paragraph: “September is more likely to become a month of internal political activity of the authorities, as the time for another personnel “shakedown” has not yet come. As for relations with Russia, “there are no questions at the moment which we could discuss with V. Putin on the high-level”; and nothing is going to threaten financial stability in the coming months. It is high time we remembered about “Belaya Rus” and seriously occupied ourselves with political opposition”.
Today we have to admit that our forecast has only partly come true: the authorities did seriously occupy themselves with opposition. This occupation was carried out on such a scale, that we had to dedicate to the topic of repressions a separate column for the first time this year. However, in the preface to “Infofocus” we are going to limit ourselves to an extract from the minutes that was made up for Victor Ivashkevich, organizer of the “European March”, withindoors of the Pervomaysky district sobering-up station: “On September, 25 at 8:20 p.m. at the sobering-up station… citizen V. Ivashkevich distributed leaflets, and thus violated the procedure of mass actions “. We would not dare after that to insist that they pick out only people completely devoid of creative abilities for the Belarusian “Spetsnaz”.
In September it was possible to find repeated mentions of a civil society organization “Belaya Rus” that had never risen up to the republican level on pages of non-government newspapers. Analysts, as a rule, connected the name of that civil society organization with the authorities’ party, and supposedly the decision to establish it had been made in the president administration. In August we mentioned “Belaya Rus” on purpose. In the course of July information activity concerning a candidate for the part of such a party, organizers of the PR-campaign repeatedly announced the forthcoming in September constituent convention as if it had been a solved case. Those announcements proved to be the bait we fell for. Most likely, those analysts turned out to be right who saw behind that ballyhoo someone’s private business-project, which to all appearances had not met with the “royal” approval. To confirm the given supposition let us refer to the opinion of a person who is professionally informed about such questions. Editor-in-chief of “Sovetskaya Belorussia” (“Soviet Belarus”), Pavel Yakubovich, is definitely such a person: “As for a “non-party parliament”… To tell you the truth, there are no parties to my liking. Either the Right, or the Left, or the Centrist… I completely agree with Chernomyrdin who once said in a fit of temper: “Whatever party they are going to establish, it will prove to be the Communist Party of the Soviet Union in the upshot”… Is it funny or sad? Look at the new parties either in Russia or in Belarus-the same Caesarism, the same praise of their leader, squabbles, footboards and bickering for portfolios. Do I need that?” Pavel Izotovich does not need by hundred percent to make such statements on pages of the newspaper with the largest print-run and hence the most considerable one in the country only by his own initiative.
Now let us say a couple of words about the personnel “shakedown”. It is a vexed question whether we should or should not attribute dismission of Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vladimir Konoplev, to this type of measures. Opinions of all those who appeared in print with comments on such an extraordinary event were whirling around agreement or disagreement with the official version of dismission after all. We will express our opinion about the “dismission of the year” in the analytical part of the “Infofocus”.
Let us remind you that in our September forecast a “logic chain”: financial stability-social stability-political stability was mentioned as a priority of the authorities’ activity. An opinion poll conducted by IISEPS in September brought a surprise. It was found that although financial stability was holding out and a two-digit wage-push was going on for the fourth consecutive year, anxious expectations were growing in the society. In particular this growth is telling on decrease of confidence in head of state. A similar thing has never been observed in Belarus before.
IISEPS executive board