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BULLETINS INFOFOCUS № 9

E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 9, 2010 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)

Content:

Introduction
1. Basic trends of September
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics

3.1. In expectation of merry elections
3.2. Today “like this”, and tomorrow?
4. Economics
4.1. Dangerous difference
4.2. Not listed in the top ten
4.3. From Russia with a smile
5. Finances
5.1. A biblical plot
6. Good news
7. Our forecast for October
8. From the IISEPS desktop

Introduction:

Dear readers!

 

No miracle has happened. An extraordinary session of the House of Representatives fixed up December, 19 as the date of the presidential elections. However, Belarusian authorities would have been untrue to themselves, had not they organized making of the decision in a special-forces raid mode. The official purpose of the extraordinary session was approving of the budget for the year of 2011. The question of fixing up a day for the elections had not even been put on the agenda of the first meeting on September, 7 which gave cause for some analysts to talk about possible repeal of the elections and imposition of the state of national emergency.
On September, 14 president of Russia D. Medvedev celebrated his 45th birthday. Under the conditions of the Belarusian-Russian information war continuation his Union state colleague faced the classical problem of the impossibility for him to either congratulate or not to congratulate D. Medvedev. He chose the option “not to congratulate, impossible to congratulate”, which in our opinion can be regarded as something similar to J. Caesar’s decision about crossing the Rubicon. The price for such a decision was the final assignment of the social outcast status to him, this time within the boundaries of the CIS. The subsequent events (speaking at the press conference for the representatives of Russian mass media and D. Medvedev’s answer) confirmed the mentioned assumption.
Against such political background, just as we have expected, the hope of the first vice-premier V. Semashko to sign a package of agreements between Belarus and Russia on construction of a nuclear power plant was not realized. Before A. Lukashenko capitulates completely, there are no grounds to count on any new subsidies on the part of Russia. Due to the same reason, this time, however, contrary to our expectations, the amount of Russian duty-free oil delivered to the Belarusian oil refineries has not been increased.
In spite of our forecast, the electoral rating of the “only politician” shrank in September by 6.6 percentage points in comparison with June (from 45.6% to 39%). The rise in prices for basic foodstuffs outweighed the pre-election rhetoric. A certain reduction of the actual wage in August also made its contribution into the decrease of the rating. On the other hand, our difficulty connected with forecasting social attitude indices’ dynamics was confirmed by their chaotic change. The financial standing index did not change, the expectation index decreased, and the index of policy correctness grew. Such multidirectional tendency of social attitude indices’ change is registered for the first time during the zero years. It is a direct consequence of the contradictory information signals influencing the public opinion.

IISEPS executive board

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