E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 1, 2010 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)
Content:
Introduction
1. Basic trends of January
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. About imperial and not so imperial policy
3.2. A third and even more
3.3. Who takes the tops, and who takes the roots of the crops?
4. Economics
4.1. Is it already impossible to put Humpty Dumpty together?
4.2. Russian prospects of the Belarusian MAZ
4.3. About the good of the crouch start
5. Finances
5.1. Two out of five
6. Good news
7. Our forecast for February
Introduction:
Dear readers!
Our January forecast had the so-called framework character and did not concern the current events. We proceeded from the assumption that any talks about termination of the world financial crisis were untimely. Another “rally” of the political and business elites which took place in Davos confirmed our assumption. The uncertainty level at the globalized world market still remains exorbitantly high, and the coming out of the crisis technology is as unclear as before.
It is appropriate to recall in this connection the words of a sermon by the English poet and priest of the XVII century John Donne which served as an epigraph to the famous novel by E. Hemingway: “No man is an Iland, intire of it selfe; every man is a peece of the Continent, a part of the maine; if a Clod bee washed away by the Sea, Europe is the lesse, as well as if a Promontorie were, as well as if a Mannor of thy friends or of thine owne were; any mans death diminishes me, because I am involved in Mankinde; And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; It tolls for thee”.
If an individual person is a part of the continent, then what should be said about a state with almost 10 million people’s worth of population? Since the end of 2003 a considerable increase of economic growth rates occurred in Belarus which the authorities have conceitedly ascribed to the “Belarusian economic model of development” created by its architect in the empirical manner without relying on the world’s achievements. However, if Belarusian economy had been growing on the strength of inner reasons during the last years, then why did the world crisis caused by the financial speculators from Wall Street manage to stop its growth?
The answer to this question is obvious. Belarusian economy, in spite of its archaism, became a part of the world’s economy long ago. The soap bubble of the American demand has become the main reason for its accelerated growth since the end of 2003. It is precisely this fact that speeded up the world’s oil prices and allowed the Slavic integrator to turn Belarus into rather successful oil offshore. Besides, high oil and other raw materials prices enriched Russian consumers, as well as Belarusian manufacturers.
Due to the above mentioned, the lot of the political regime in Belarus is going to be determined in the medium-term prospect by the dynamics of the world’s oil prices. If they drop, then the Russian market will be closed for Belarusian merchandise for good. Russian subsidies are also going to decrease. Their level directly depends on the imperial ambitions of the Kremlin which in their turn are being nourished by petrodollars and the fact has been displayed by another Belarusian-Russian oil and gas showdown.
IISEPS executive board