E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 11, 2011 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)
Content:
Introduction
1. Basic trends of November
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. Who decided what for whom?
3.2. Oats are expensive nowadays
4. Economics
4.1. Pending the white smoke from the chimney
4.2. Economy that proprietors run at breakneck pace from
4.3. A word with the prefix “pseudo”
5. Finances
5.1. Slaves of the 29th standard
6. Our forecast for December
7. From the IISEPS desktop
Introduction:
Dear readers!
Making a forecast for November we proceeded from the assumption that the general trend towards renunciation of the existing socio-economic model would continue. Such certainty was based on the absence of a choice by the head of the Belarusian state. Having encountered the threat of complete economic disorganization he would have to agree, though with reserves, to the reformatory proposals of the government. However, we did not take into account integration resoluteness of Russia. Its readiness to pay for the right to become the center of a local integration project considerably exceeded our expectations. Proper agreements were drawn up in Moscow on November, 25, obviously preceded by “oral” negotiations on the heads’ of states level. That is why at the beginning of November A. Lukashenko resolutely stroke out propositions of the government having thus given further collaboration with the IMF up for lost. As for the EurAsEC anti-crisis fund, it agreed, though two months late, to transfer in December the second tranche of the loan at the rate of $ 440 million.
In conformity with the contract for delivery, in 2012 the gas price for Belarus shall total $ 165.6 for a thousand cubic meters (developers of the budget-2012 calculated upon $ 180 for a thousand cubic meters). As a result the “integration discount” shall exceed $ 2 billion. Thus our forecast concerning the zero chances for the “balanced development” of the Belarusian economy in the approaching year turned out to be open to question. However, tactical advantages connected with the delivery of cheap gas are to take a turn for strategic losses. Belarusian society has once again missed the opportunity to free itself from the legacy of an extensive culture. Russian subsidies block its development thus depriving it of historical future.
As for our forecast concerning the prospects of a “furious demand for the Belarusian produce”, it has unfortunately come true. The positive effect associated with the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble is dwindling before our very eyes, which is reflected in the growth of stockpiles. If, according to the data of Belstat, on October, 1 stockpiles constituted 53.4% of the average monthly industrial output, then on November, 1 – 57.4%. Belarusian economy responded to the one-time action by a one-time result. One should not have expected anything different.
On November, 24 chairman of the human rights center “Vesna” and vice-president of the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) A. Belyatski was sentenced to four and a half years of imprisonment in a colony with a reinforced regime with confiscation of property. We obviously did not expect such a sentence. A sentence to the human rights activist is additional evidence of A. Lukashenko’s geopolitical choice. Cheap Russian gas did not leave any opportunities for the head of state to continue maneuvering between the East and the West.
IISEPS executive board