E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 9, 2011 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)
Content:
Introduction
1. Basic trends of September
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. What does the word “trust” mean?
3.2. No other wonders except fisticuffs are slated for the economy
3.3. Cadres are all-important
4. Economics
4.1. Belarusian problems of America
4.2. Recession against high oil prices
4.3. Going round in circles
5. Finances
5.1. A rise in prices against strengthening of the ruble
6. Our forecast for October
7. From the IISEPS desktop
Introduction:
Dear readers!
Our assumption concerning shortening of the list of political prisoners was confirmed: 11 participants of the events of December, 19 were released on September, 15. On the last day of September there were four participants of the Square left in penal colonies: D. Bondarenko, A. Sannikov, N. Statkevich and D. Uss. The latter was released on October, 1. The economic crisis is gaining strength, and the authorities have no choice left. Let us remind the reader that an IMF mission is going to work in Minsk from October, 4 to October, 18. This international financial institution is undoubtedly beyond politics in and of itself; however, the same cannot be said about its founders, the leading one of which is the USA.
Authorities have fulfilled their obligation to return currency at the market exchange rate to the currency exchange offices by the middle of September. It was not difficult to predict such an outcome. It is another example of actions limitedness of the authoritarian power seemingly unlimited by anything. In reality the “vertical power structure” has always had a rather narrow range of possibilities, and the range was set by the demands of the “majority” which developed a taste for consumption not at the expense of their own efforts, but at the expense of paternalistic efforts of the state. A possibility to continue such policy is completely exhausted today. The self-repayment issue not of agriculture, sport, etc., but of the Belarusian nation altogether is put on the agenda.
Contrary to numerous predictions the first autumn month did not become a “hot” one. Our conservatism concerning the matter has fully justified itself. Moreover, September opinion poll did not register an increase in protest moods. Belarusians apparently begin to adapt to the inflationary spiral. However, as it is known, the mole of history (and social processes are a part of it) digs slowly, but without any smoke breaks and days off. Absence of a protest moods growth did not prevent Belarusians from getting down to revision of their attitude to the official line of the country’s development and to the individual personifying the line.
Just as we had supposed, a historical minimum of A. Lukashenko’s electoral rating was registered in September – 20.5%! Thus the result of March 2003 (26.2%) turned out to be exceeded by 5.7 percentage points at once. Altogether during nine months of the current year the electoral rating of the head of state has lost 32.5 points.
The initiative from on high to conduct a “round table conference” was not continued. Authoritarian power can become able to negotiate only at the stage of its collapse; however, such a stage has not yet come to Belarus.
IISEPS executive board